adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Business

US Fed chair says unclear if interest rates need to rise more

Published

 on

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday it is still unclear if US interest rates will need to rise further, as central bank officials balance uncertainty about the effect of past hikes in borrowing costs and recent bank credit tightening with the fact that inflation is proving hard to control.

In carefully scripted remarks at a Fed research conference in which Powell was interviewed by a top US central bank staffer, the Fed chief reiterated that the central bank would now make decisions “meeting by meeting,” but also flagged that after a year of aggressive rate increases, officials “can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook to make careful assessments”.

“We face uncertainty about the lagged effects of our tightening so far, and about the extent of credit tightening from recent banking stresses,” Powell said during a panel session at the conference in Washington. “So today, our guidance is limited to identifying the factors we’ll be monitoring as we assess the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent.”

“The risks of doing too much or doing too little are becoming more balanced and our policy adjusted to reflect that,” Powell said. In advance of a June 13-14 policy meeting, he said that “we haven’t made any decisions about the extent to which additional policy firming will be appropriate.”

US policymakers have remained on the fence about their upcoming policy decision, and will review important jobs and inflation data that is due in coming weeks that could sway the debate within the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Powell said he felt that data so far “support the committee’s view that bringing inflation down will take some time.” He noted, for example, that some of the factors that may keep inflation elevated, such as the tight labour market, have yet to ease – particularly in the service industries where inflation is proving more persistent.

Policymakers are facing other constraints, as well, in offering clear guidance on the next meeting. Regardless of the data, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates if a down-to-the-wire political standoff over the US federal debt ceiling remains unresolved. If an actual US debt default is the result, the central bank may even be pushed towards emergency steps to ease the burden on the economy.

Powell’s comments overall “were consistent with our takeaway from the May post-meeting press conference, which was that, while the (FOMC) wasn’t sure whether further tightening would be necessary at some point, the committee’s base case was a June pause,” LHMeyer senior economist Kevin Burgett wrote.

This week has indeed seen some Fed policymakers call for a pause to further rate hikes. But others have pushed for more increases, while vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson made remarks that walked a middle path, citing risks on either side with no clear recommendation.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic captured the mood earlier this week when he said that while he was “inclined” to keep interest rates steady at the June meeting, even that decision would not say much about the future.

“I would say it was a pause, but a pause could be a ‘skip,’ or it could be a hold,” Bostic said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty in the world. We will just have to see how things play out and get a sense of what’s true signal and what’s noise, and that is going to be a week-to-week thing.”

‘Frustrating inconsistency’

The quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate increase approved by the Fed earlier this month was the 10th in a row since March of 2022, and raised the benchmark policy rate to the 5 percent to 5.25 percent range, the level most policymakers had penciled in as the likely stopping point for rate hikes.

The Fed’s policy statement at that meeting opened the door to a pause, though Powell in his post-meeting news conference said, “It’s not possible to say that with confidence now … We’re going to have to see data accumulating” before deciding whether the door was closed on further rate hikes.

Data on inflation, jobs, and the banking industry since then have done little to clarify the situation, with nothing seeming to change very fast. Job growth seems to be cooling but remains strong; inflation appears to be falling but is still high; overall demand, bank credit and the economy look to be slowing but also are holding up better than anticipated.

The result has been “a frustrating inconsistency” in the arguments offered by policymakers since the last meeting, said Tim Duy, chief US economist at SGH Macro Advisors. Dovish officials have argued the need to keep the options for more rate hikes open, while hawkish officials have noted the risks of tightening credit, and some have tried to have it both ways.

Duy said it was getting to be time for a decision that either that the economy needs time to adjust to the aggressive rate hikes over the past year, or “stick with … waiting for inflation data to roll over” and continue raising rates until then.

 

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

Published

 on

 

Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending