Two-in-five (41%) say Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply agreement working, 45% disagree
June 19, 2023 – The Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply agreement has been successful in keeping the Liberal minority government in power – and Canadians away from ballot boxes for now – but the reviews are mixed if it is helping the government get things done.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians lean slightly towards believing the government is operating poorly (46%) under the agreement than well (41%).
Discontent with what the government is getting accomplished under the NDP-Liberal agreement is higher among past Conservative voters (85%), but past Liberal (73%) and NDP supporters (59%) are both satisfied at majority levels.
Meantime, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sees his approval dip to a low since the 2021 election – 36 per cent. Sliding approval from past Liberal (74%) and NDP voters (46%) is pulling down appraisal of the prime minister after an end-of-2022 bump that pushed the Liberal leader to 43 per cent.
Trudeau’s rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, is in no better shape when it comes to evaluation by Canadians. Half (50%) view Poilievre unfavourably, while his favourability matches Trudeau’s approval at 36 per cent. However, there are more Canadians – 59 per cent – who say they have a negative view of the prime minister than Poilievre.
Perhaps no measure better shows the current division between the two leading parties than the fact that, overall, just three per cent of Canadians hold a positive view of the parties’ two leaders. More – one-in-five (19%) – view both men in a negative light.
More Key Findings:
Comparing these Trudeau-Poilievre views further, one-in-three (33%) Canadians view Trudeau negatively and Poilievre positively, while close to the same number view Trudeau positively and Poilievre negatively (29%).
Men are more likely to view Poilievre positively (47%) than Trudeau (29%) or Singh (38%). Women have higher appraisal of Singh (53%) and Trudeau (43%) than Poilievre (26%).
Canadians aged 18- to 34-years-old are three times as likely (6%) as other age groups to view both Poilievre and Trudeau favourably.
There is a large sentiment that the government isn’t getting done what it needs to under the NDP-Liberal agreement from those under economic duress. Half (47%) of the “Struggling” according to the Angus Reid Institute’s Economic Stress Index believe the government is operating “terribly” since the NDP and Liberals signed the confidence-and-supply agreement.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: Assessing the leaders
Trudeau approval
Poilievre and Singh favourability
Perceptions across party lines
Men and women offer differing views
The economically stressed prefer Poilievre
Part Two: Does anyone have a positive view of both Poilievre and Trudeau?
Part Three: Views of confidence-and-supply agreement
Liberals, New Democrats largely satisfied
Part One: Assessing the leaders
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal minority government have had a rocky first half of 2023. They’ve been dogged by a scandal involving potential Chinese government interference in Canadian elections, with much dissatisfaction with how they have responded. The latest twist in the saga saw the Trudeau-appointed special rapporteur on foreign interference, former governor general David Johnston, step down after the House of Commons passed a motion asking for him to resign.
Though Canada has stepped up to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, its commitment to defence spending has come under scrutiny after leaks revealed Trudeau privately told North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials that Canada would never reach the NATO goal of spending two per cent of its GDP on nation defence.
Canadians, already offering mixed reviews of federal government services, had to endure longer waits for passports and potential delays during tax season as a public sector strike swept the nation for 12 days. The resulting agreement, though not as much as the union had demanded, boosted wages for public sector employees, as half of Canadian workers themselves had not seen a raise in the past 12 months.
In the face of a half-year of challenges, approaching three-in-five (59%) of Canadians disapprove of the work of Trudeau, including more than two-in-five (42%) who strongly do so. One-third (36%) are more positive in their appraisal:
The confidence-and-supply agreement between the NDP and the Liberals has offered Trudeau’s minority government some measure of stability. Those who voted NDP in 2021 are split on their assessment of Trudeau – 46 per cent approve while half (49%) disapprove.
Past Liberal voters offer the most positive assessments (74% approve) while past CPC voters are overwhelmingly negative (93% disapprove):
Across each group of political party supporters, Trudeau’s approval has taken a considerable hit in 2023. Comparing these data with his two-year high mark at the end of last year, he is down nine points among past NDP voters and 13 points among past BQ supporters. This, while also enduring a drop in approval among his own supporters from 83 to 74 per cent:
Poilievre and Singh favourability
Trudeau and the Liberals are currently facing a vote intention deficit to the Conservatives and leader Pierre Poilievre. While eight points may separate the two men’s parties, there is no separation between the two when it comes to praise from Canadians. One-third (36%) say they have a favourable view of Poilievre, while half (50%) do not.
The leader of the New Democratic Party, Trudeau’s partner in the confidence-and-supply agreement, is the most favourably viewed of the leaders of the three largest national parties. As many have positive views of Jagmeet Singh (45%) as do negative ones (45%).
Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet – evaluated by Quebecers only – is viewed more positively than Poilievre, Trudeau or Singh, with half (49%) saying they have a positive impression:
Perceptions across party lines
Comparatively, Poilievre is viewed more favourably by his own party (39% very favourable, 40% favourable) than Trudeau is by his (17% strongly approve, 57% moderately approve).
But Poilievre does not find much favour elsewhere on the political spectrum. Past Liberal and NDP voters’ assessments are overwhelmingly negative. At most, 15 per cent of past Bloc voters say they have a positive impression of Poilievre:
Men and women offer differing views
There are clear differences between men and women in assessments of the three major party leaders. Half of men (47%) say they view Poilievre favourably but are less positive towards Singh (38%) and Trudeau (29%). Women are negative in their assessment of Poilievre (26%), but more generous when it comes to Trudeau (43%) and Singh (53%):
The economically stressed prefer Poilievre
The Angus Reid Institute’s Economic Stress Index assesses factors such as household costs, debt and self-financial appraisals to provide a measure of the financial pressure facing Canadians (read more about the index here).
Those found to be “Struggling” financially by the index offer a more positive assessment of Poilievre than those under less economic stress. Poilievre has been hammering the Trudeau and the Liberals on the issue of inflation, blaming government spending and pointing his finger at the carbon tax as another measure putting undue pressure on Canadian households. Poilievre’s favourability gap over Singh and Trudeau among those in dire financial straits suggest that perhaps his message is resonating.
At the other end of the index, Trudeau and Singh find more positive appraisal:
Part Two: Does anyone have a positive view of both Poilievre and Trudeau?
There is a lot of negativity in the current political environment in Canada. The leaders of the two largest political parties in the country – and the two men most likely to contest for the job of prime minister whenever the next election occurs – each currently face an electorate where at least half say they view them unfavourably.
While the assessments of both leaders are highly polarized, with political affiliation significantly affecting evaluations of the leaders as noted above, there is some overlap on both positive and negative sides of the spectrum. However, only a handful – three per cent – of Canadians offer a positive assessment of both leaders. Negative impressions of both are much more common at one-in-five (19%).
The proportion holding twin negative views of Poilievre and Trudeau is similar across demographics. Meanwhile, 18- to 34-year-old Canadians are the most likely to say they have positive impressions of both leaders:
Past CPC voters (78%) are more likely to offer high assessment of their own leader and low assessment of their rival than past Liberal voters (64%). This, as the CPC outpace the Liberal party in vote retention from the 2021 federal election. Notably, 10 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2021 and one-in-seven (14%) of those who voted Liberal say they view both Trudeau and Poilievre negatively.
Though a plurality of NDP voters (41%) offer a positive view of Trudeau and a negative one of Poilievre, one-third view both unfavourably. They are joined by half (50%) of those who voted Bloc Québécois in 2021:
Part Three: Views of confidence-and-supply agreement
It has been 15 months of Liberal minority governance under a confidence-and-supply agreement. The arrangement, which sees the NDP support the Liberals on the budget and confidence votes, has provided stability for a minority government which otherwise could have potentially fell at any point due to a failed vote of confidence. Though there have been some disagreements between the NDP and the Liberals – most recently on the government’s handling of the investigation into foreign interference in Canadian elections – it has not been enough to dissolve the deal.
Canadians are split as to how they feel the agreement is working. Two-in-five (41%) believe it is going “well” or “great”, while slightly more (46%) instead believe it is going “poorly” or “terribly”:
Liberals, New Democrats largely satisfied
Supporters of the official opposition Conservative party, sitting on the outside of the agreement, are the most likely to believe things are going terribly – two-thirds (64%) say this. Among supporters of parties inside the agreement, past Liberal voters are more likely to believe the agreement is going well or great (73%) than past NDP voters (59%). Past Bloc voters are split (great or well 36%, poorly or terribly 41%):
Those who are struggling financially are less likely to believe the confidence-and-supply agreement is working “well” or “great”. Instead, approaching half (47%) believe it is working “terribly”. Half (50%) of the Comfortable and a majority (56%) of the Thriving say the government is operating at least well under the arrangement:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from May 30 – June 3, 2023, among a representative randomized sample of 3,885 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.
The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.
Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.
The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.
A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.
Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.
“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.
The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.
“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”
Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.
“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.
Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.
His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.
Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.
It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.
“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.
When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”
In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.
“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.
The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.
Singh called it a “big victory.”
“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.
“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”
New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.
Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.
The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
The New Democrats have declared a federal byelection victory in their Winnipeg stronghold riding of Elmwood—Transcona.
The NDP candidate Leila Dance told supporters in a tearful speech that even though the final results weren’t in, she expected she would see them in Ottawa.
With several polls still to be counted, Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds conceded defeat and told his volunteers that they should be proud of what the Conservatives accomplished in the campaign.
Political watchers had a keen eye on the results to see if the Tories could sway traditionally NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.
Meanwhile in the byelection race in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun the NDP, Liberals and Bloc Québécois remained locked in an extremely tight three-way race as the results trickled in slowly.
The Liberal stronghold riding had a record 91 names on the ballot, and the results aren’t expected until the early hours of the morning.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
