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Canada real estate: What will happen if interest rates rise?

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Economists are predicting Canadians might see another interest rate hike next week and say homeowners who are already financially vulnerable will have a tougher time making mortgage payments.

Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, told CTVNews.ca on Thursday that he is anticipating a hike of 25 basis points to be announced by the Bank of Canada on July 12.

Moshe Lander, senior lecturer in economics at Concordia University in Montreal, told CTVNews.ca on Thursday another increase is “not good news for borrowers of any kind,” from those in the housing market to those with personal debt from student loans, for example.

The increase, Lander said, will mean some homeowners will be unable to finance their mortgage.

“Interest rates have gone up so much, so fast,” he said. “But our incomes have not been rising in pace. So, more and more disposable income will have to go towards paying interest on our debt, let alone the actual debt itself.”

The bank has raised its key interest rate eight times in less than a year, and this would be the third increase of 2023, making borrowing money more expensive.

A rate hike of 25 basis points would bring the overnight rate to five per cent and the prime rate to 7.2 per cent, the highest rates in approximately 30 years, said Lander.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR HOMEOWNERS?

If the central bank announces a 25-basis-point increase, homeowners will pay more on their mortgage. Hogue said homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage will see a significant and instant increase.

According to Ratehub.ca’s mortgage payment calculator, a homeowner who has put a 10 per cent down payment on a house that costs about $729,000, with a five-year variable rate of 5.80 per cent over 25 years will pay $100 more per month in mortgage payments. The average price of a home in Canada in May 2023 was $729,044.

On the contrary, those with a fixed-rate mortgage will see an increase when their term expires.

Since not everyone’s mortgage terms expire at the same time, Hogue predicts this rate increase “can have a little bit longer lag in terms of that monetary policy transmission to households.”

James Laird, co-CEO of Ratehub.ca, advised people shopping for a home to get “pre-approval to hold today’s fixed rates for up to 120 days,” according to an email sent to CTVNews.ca on Thursday.

“It’s best to plan for a 25-basis-point interest rate hike and be pleased if they hold,” read the email.

Laird, who is also president of CanWise mortgage lender, said current homeowners with a mortgage up for renewal within the next year should seek out rates with a new lender.

This way, if rates jump again, owners can try breaking their existing mortgage and “switch to that new lender before your rate hold expires to lock in the lower rate.”

A BALANCING ACT

While the increase is still not confirmed, Lander said the adjustment comes as the Bank of Canada aims to balance economic growth with pressure from inflation.

In last month’s press release, the central bank wrote, “overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.”

Hogue explained hiking interest rates is meant to “cool down” demands from the markets, which can stem from both households and businesses, and balance it with production capacity.

“When you have more demand than your ability to produce, it puts upward pressure on prices, which is basically what inflation is,” he said.

Statistics Canada reported the annual inflation rate fell to 3.4 per cent in May from 4.4 per cent in April, largely due to lower gasoline prices compared to a year ago.

That’s the lowest inflation has been since June 2021.

Ultimately, it is in the central bank’s policy mandate to maintain inflation at or close to two per cent, and hiking interest rates is a way to lower production demands, reduce inflation and achieve that goal, said Hogue.

Lander said inflation is “scary, it’s confusing and can really destabilize an economy quickly.”

That’s why the increase is not to “punish” homeowners, “it’s purely to make sure that that terrible, terrible (inflation) genie does not get out of the bottle again,” Lander said.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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