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What is a better long term investment – stocks and bonds or real estate?

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Given Canada’s soaring housing market, it is easy to believe that real estate is the best investment. History suggests otherwise. Imagine investing $1,000 on Jan. 1, 1975, in Canadian real estate (a mix of commercial and residential properties) and then watching it grow over time. By Dec. 31, 2021, that $1,000 would have grown to $76,515. Next, do the same with a conventional portfolio consisting of 30-per-cent Canadian stocks, 30-per-cent U.S. stocks, 30-per-cent international stocks and 10-per-cent Canada bonds. By the end of 2021, the conventional portfolio would be worth $169,337, which is more than double the real estate portfolio. I must caution that such comparisons are very sensitive to both the starting point and the end point of the observation period. If we had started the projection two years earlier – on Jan. 1, 1973 – the two portfolios would be in a virtual dead heat by the end of 2021.

(Source for real estate (since 2000): MSCI/REALPAC Canada Quarterly Property Index (Unfrozen) measuring unlevered total returns of directly held property investments. For stocks: TSX for Canadian stocks, Standard & Poor’s for U.S. stocks, and MSCI World Index (ex-U.S.) for international stocks; Bond returns are based on Canada long bonds as tabled in Canadian Institute of Actuaries Economic Statistics; Chart was created by the author)


Frederick Vettese is former chief actuary of Morneau Shepell and author of Retirement Income for Life.

 

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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