Politics

Population growth is the housing issue politicians can’t keep ducking

Published

11 months ago

December 11, 2023

If there’s a hot political debate over why Canada has a housing crisis, it is important to talk about the proximate cause.

It’s population growth. And the temporary resident boom.

Canadian politicians have spent a lot of time dodging and ignoring this unavoidable fact.

Rapid population growth, driven primarily by an unprecedented boom in temporary residents – mostly temporary workers and foreign students – has turbocharged demand for Canada’s slow-growing stock of apartments and houses.

That’s not the fault of those foreign workers and students. It’s the fault of governments whose planning and policies have failed miserably.

Those are the failures of Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government, which has allowed a foreign student boom to grow, without adequate plans for housing. And Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose government didn’t monitor or limit that, and also expanded temporary-worker programs, all without adequate plans for housing.

And still politicians say little about it.

When Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre puts out a 15-minute video called Housing Hell which purports to explain the causes of Canada’s housing crises, we should expect that it won’t avoid a key factor. But it did.

That’s why the measures that Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced last Thursday are noteworthy. In a bid to slow the boom in foreign students, he doubled the amount of money they must bring and threatened to cap numbers if provinces don’t curb abuses. That is a step, at least, after a long failure to act.

One reason federal politicians have been reluctant to talk about population growth is that they do not want to appear to be anti-immigrant. That’s a good reflex, even if it is partly political calculation.

Immigrants are not the problem – governments are. They failed to plan. It is not really higher targets for permanent immigrants that are driving the growth, either, but an essentially unplanned expansion of temporary residents, who now number 2.2 million. Blame governments.

So it’s distressing to see an opposition politician pledging to fix the problem – Mr. Poilievre – miss this key point.

The Conservative Leader’s video included valid points about the slow growth of Canada’s housing stock. Accelerating building is the real medium- and long-term solution. However, that process will take years.

But Mr. Poilievre’s claim that houses are a lot more expensive in Canada than in the U.S. because of Ottawa’s inflationary deficits doesn’t really add up: The U.S. has run far higher deficits, noted economist Mike Moffatt, a Western University professor and senior director of policy at the Smart Prosperity Institute

Mr. Poilievre makes an argument for why deficits and monetary policy caused inflation but that is largely part of another debate. Canada’s housing-price spike isn’t just general inflation.

Inflation lifted prices about 29 per cent of the last 10 years, according to Statistics Canada, but Prof. Moffatt noted that in Ontario, home prices went up by 120 per cent – in Tillsonburg, 228 per cent. That’s not ordinary inflation. Something else is happening with supply and demand.

Mr. Poilievre’s video offered a bizarre version of housing supply and demand, arguing Canada has lots of land (so lots of supply) and a small population (so not much demand.) But people live in homes, with walls, and connected to infrastructure. And it is growth in population that drives demand: If Canada had a population of 100 million that shrank by five million in a year, home prices would plummet.

Instead, Canada’s population grew by 2.9 per cent from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023 – almost 1.2 million people. The majority were new temporary residents.

In Ontario, population growth from about 2015 increased home prices in the Greater Toronto Area and then across southwest Ontario, Prof. Moffatt said. There is inter-connection, too, and New Brunswick saw Ontarians move in looking for less expensive housing, particularly with the work-from-home revolution. Rents and home prices took off where planning didn’t keep up with growth.

All of that is not a reason for Canada to turn its back on immigration, and its many benefits. The problem was an abject failure to plan.

But it does mean that in the short term, there is a policy lever governments can pull now to cool the housing market. That is temporarily slowing the growth of temporary residents – capping the number of new students and new temporary workers. That could prevent another year of high rent increases on new leases.

Avoiding the issue – avoiding an unavoidable fact about the housing crisis – will only pile misery onto past failures.

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Politics

‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Politics

Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Politics

Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

Published

2 days ago

November 7, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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