In the past I have predicted certain things at the start of certain years. This is a selection of those which I recall, along with issues I am watching out for the next year. They include a solar eclipse that will happen, and an asteroid that is not likely to impact us.
A prediction made in 2011 was that the German Economy would suffer in part due to the lack of nuclear power. This has happened but for reasons I did not predict. cnn.com The war in Ukraine and the collapse of the Russian gas strategy revealed a weakness in Germany’s non-nuclear power strategy. Even without the war the fact they were so dependent on natural gas proves the green energy strategy had failed. Green energy without nuclear cannot work. Not unless we are talking about an all-up program to build solar power collection in orbit using resources mined in space. Basically, the beginning of a Dyson swarm.
Don’t worry 2007 FT3 which was briefly seen in 2007, and has a small chance of impact in 2024 is very unlikely to hit us. This being the 2020’s when everything unlikely happens, I will discuss below, WHAT IF it did.
Past Predictions Right And Wrong An article full of predictions for the 2020’s Let’s see how they have done so far. I did predict that SUSY string theory would be with us for decades even if evidence for it was not found. Instead it seems that SUSY string theory is fading. That said I would not be shocked if someone does try to reformulate SUSY string/ M theory in a way that does comply with available data. It is too tempting to model everything as being a “vibration” of a fundamental object of some kind.
I predicted that gravitational wave observations, and multi-messenger astronomy, will give us new clues on General Relativity. So far this has been the case.
The TMT being finally constructed remains to be seen. At this point if it is not constructed I think part of it will be due to the increase in light pollution due to satellites such as star link.
Dark matter has so far not been directly detected. Quantum gravity theories other than string/M theory gaining more traction has come to pass. As have the advance of ideas similar to those of mine, but perhaps better executed, by better known names have also gained some traction. Namely the idea that we need to not so much quantize gravity. I called this idea relativization, gave APS talks and published in low impact places a set of axioms on how to do this using algebraic quantum field theory on a dynamically curved space time. I am just happy to see advancement.
LISA making great strides to be deployed. I don’t think I was personally involved with LISA when I predicted this. I can say we are making steady progress to launch.
I have been WRONG so far about Boeing giving us access to space bur right about Space X. I am no longer confident that SpaceX will put humans in lunar orbit before NASA does this again.
I am also no longer confident that we will see desktop quantum computing by 2030. I’d love to be wrong about this.
I have been wrong that we would call this decade “the 20’s” by 2022. At some point in the 2020’s we will stop using the 20 before the decade in daily speech.
No Impact Is Likely.
In 2024 we will not be hit by asteroid 2007 FT3. A report first written in November and updated a couple days ago puts the chance of impact as one in 10 million for March 3 2030 and one in 11.5 million for October 5th 2024. (GBnews.com) In other words don’t quit your day job because of this. The odds are comparable to that of winning the lottery.
NASA has responded to this simply stating that “There are no known asteroid impact threads to Earth at any time in the next century.” (standard.co.uk) Meaning fearing asteroid impacts would be like planning retirement based on playing the lottery or fearing lighting on a random sunny day. That said if an asteroid is ever about to impact Earth it will be visible with a telescope for some time before hand. Research grade telescopes would find it, and appropriate actions hopefully would be taken.
If the odds of this come down, and the chance of impact is MUCH more it might even be a good thing. Hopefully humanity would band together to deflect this relatively small asteroid. However, you will see sensational fearmongering stories about this in the lead up to the event. At worst it would be like preventing Y2K or taking measures against covid. One of those things we manage to handle but in doing so some people will think the whole event was made up or at least overblown.
WHAT IF it did hit though?
All of that said this is the 2020’s. Every unlikely bad thing seems to happen in this decade. If one power block of countries thinks that they can gain by allowing another one to get the full brunt of this impact, they may just not help out. This would not be a Chicxulub size impactor. This would cause local total devastation and a degree of impact winter, but not enough to threaten survival of global civilization. 2007 FT3 is between 0.29 and 0.59 km in diameter. This is a very big rock but not by asteroid standards. The impact would have 2739 MT of equivalent explosive power. All of this is according to Spacereference.org. A fun little website called asteroid launcher has this nice tool for visualizing such an impact. Worse still if it hit and hit the ocean it would mean a 450 meter tall tsunami in the middle of the ocean and certainly a meters to tens of meters tall tsunami around the rim of whichever ocean it hit.
Hopefully the world would come together to use our resources to prevent such a catastrophe if it were to happen. On the other hand, there are some who if the US was hit would rejoice. There are some who if Russia or China was hit would rejoice. There are some who would think well … maybe it’ll help out with that global warming/ climate change. A shockingly large number of people would think that kinda way about this. We are unlikely to ever find out.
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.
Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.
She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.
Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.
“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.
It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.
Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.
Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.
Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.
“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.
He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.
Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.
Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.
Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.
The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.
The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.
It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.
Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.
Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.
Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.
Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.
Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.
The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”
VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.
Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”
Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.
“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.
B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.
Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.
Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.
Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.
“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”
Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”
“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.
Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.
“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.
Worse still if it hit and hit the ocean it would mean a 450 meter tall tsunami in the middle of the ocean and certainly a meters to tens of meters tall tsunami around the rim of whichever ocean it hit.
