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Budget 2024 sets up a ‘hard year’ for the Liberals. Here’s what to expect – Global News

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The Liberal government faces a slowing economy and an uphill battle in the polls as it prepares to table its 2024 federal budget on Tuesday.

Global News spoke to Canada’s former parliamentary budget officer ahead of April 16, who said he’s expecting a tight spending plan with little room for surprises or hotly demanded relief on cost-of-living issues for Canadians.

Heading into the third budget under the government’s current mandate, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been on a cross-country tour plugging a series of measures that will be included in the coming year’s spending plans.

Since late March, the Liberals have announced just over $37 billion in new spending and loans planned for the federal budget, according to a Global News analysis. Some of the Liberal announcements have spending spread out over multiple years, while other items come with little to no price tag attached.


Click to play video: 'Budget 2024: Here’s what Canadians want from the federal government'

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Budget 2024: Here’s what Canadians want from the federal government


A significant amount of spending is tied to the Canadian housing market, in the form of either incentives to build more supply or policy changes to support renters and help prospective buyers get their first rung on the property ladder. Those include promises to help renters build their credit scores, changes to savings plans and amortization rules aimed at promoting affordability and billions in incentives to get more shovels in the ground on new builds.

Outside the housing market, Ottawa is planning to introduce a national lunch program and promised billions for expanded child-care access, boosts to the country’s defence spending and artificial intelligence industry, and a new youth mental health fund.

All the while, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has pledged that the Liberals will not increase the federal deficit past its current $40.1-billion levels.

Liberals have little fiscal room to ‘manoeuvre’: former PBO

Kevin Page, Canada’s first PBO and the president of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, tells Global News the Liberals are facing significant headwinds in trying to keep the deficit stable while also meeting the needs of Canadians.

Canada’s economy may have avoided tipping into a recession in 2023, but growth remains weak under the weight of higher interest rates from the Bank of Canada. That means the federal government is seeing lower revenues flowing into its coffers at the same time its debt is becoming more expensive.


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“Their challenge is, they just don’t have a lot of fiscal room to manoeuvre,” Page explains.

An RBC economics report released last week also warns of consequences for Canadians if governments are tempted to stray from their fiscal anchors, whether that be maintaining the overall size of the deficit or keeping a steady debt-to-GDP ratio.


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CEOs urge CPP investment in Canadian companies in open letter to Chrystia Freeland


Governments, federal or provincial, keeping to their fiscal anchors instils “confidence in voters and financial markets,” author Rachel Battaglia, an economist with RBC, wrote.

Canada’s sovereign triple-A credit rating heading into the 2024 federal budget is “strong,” Battaglia said, but the country risks a downgrade if Ottawa were to stray from its fiscal anchors.

A hit to this key credit rating would trickle down to large banks, and by extension, the rates paid by their customers on products like mortgages, according to Battaglia.

“Even though deeper deficits and higher associated sovereign borrowing costs may feel like a distant problem for many Canadians, the impact has the potential to trickle down to most households and businesses,” Battaglia wrote.

“Therefore, all Canadians have a stake in seeing the federal government meet its fiscal targets.”

Another tactic to increase revenues when economic growth is stalling is by hiking or introducing new taxes. While Freeland has pledged that no new taxes will be levied against the middle class in the 2024 budget, she has been mum on whether taxes on wealthier individuals or corporations could be in the cards.

Little room for surprises in the budget

One tailwind benefiting the federal government this budget season is that the first quarter of real GDP growth in Canada is so far coming in stronger than forecast in Ottawa’s fall economic statement last November.

That’s giving the Liberals a bit more spending room than they would’ve otherwise had amid pressures to maintain the deficit, Page says. But he expects this bandwidth will have been mostly eaten up with the already announced measures, and he does not expect any new big-ticket items will be unveiled on April 16.

Ipsos polling conducted exclusively for Global News last month shows the top demand from voters heading into the federal budget is for financial relief from the rising cost of living.


The most commonly cited priorities from Canadians surveyed by Ipsos about the upcoming 2024 federal budget.


Global News / Ipsos

Some 44 per cent of those surveyed in March said they wanted help with rising daily expenses, followed by 38 per cent who prioritized health-care investments and 33 per cent asking for a reduction in personal taxes.

“Pocketbook issues dominate the list of the things that Canadians want to see addressed in the budget,” Sean Simpson, senior vice-president at Ipsos Global Affairs, told Global News earlier this month.

But Page sees little room for those kinds of relief efforts in the 2024 budget if the Liberals want to maintain the deficit.

The best the Liberals can do is make it look to Canadians like they’re “trying their best” when it comes to acting in a fiscally responsible way while providing support to the most vulnerable, he says.

“I don’t think we’re going to see much new that can make a big difference for families in 2024 with respect to affordability,” Page says.

“It’s possible we see some small measures, but they will be small and targeted.”

The already announced efforts to get more homes built are “incremental steps” to solving the housing crisis, but Page says the country is “millions of units short” of what’s needed to restore affordability. Even efforts to put more housing supply in the pipeline will take years before homes are move-in ready, he says.

“It’s not something that we’re going to solve in the 2024 budget,” Page adds.

Liberals could have better prospects in 2025

Ipsos’s latest political polling from March 28 has the Conservatives up 18 points over the incumbent Liberals, who are themselves only three points ahead of the NDP. Simpson said the Liberals will need to “stop the bleeding” to avoid falling into third place behind the NDP.

A federal election is currently slated for no later than October 2025, but could be called earlier if the Liberals fail a confidence vote or bring down the government themselves.

Page expects a “pretty thin budget” this year, with some major items reserved for a hopeful pre-election budget next year.

But if the Liberals do get to put up another budget before the next federal election is called, Page thinks the incumbent party might find better fortunes in 2025.

By that point, many economists, as well as the Bank of Canada, forecast that the economy will be starting to recover amid anticipated cuts to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.


Click to play video: 'Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 5%'

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Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 5%


This time next year, the Liberals might find rising revenues will boost their electoral prospects and give them more ammunition to deliver a 2025 budget that would have a better chance at restoring voter confidence in the government, Page says.

“The government knows it’s going to be a hard year economically for Canadians and probably a hard year politically,” he says. “But I think they’re hoping that this will rebalance when we get to 2025.”

– with files from Global News’ Sophall Duch

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Mitchell throws two TD passes as Ticats earn important 37-21 home win over Redblacks

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HAMILTON – It remains faint but Bo Levi Mitchell and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats still have a playoff pulse.

Mitchell threw two touchdown passes as Hamilton defeated the Ottawa Redblacks 37-21 in the CFL’s annual Hall of Fame game Saturday afternoon. The Ticats (4-9) earned a second straight win to move to within six points of the third-place Toronto Argonauts (7-6) in the East Division.

Hamilton visits Toronto on Friday night.

“Obviously they’re (wins) huge now,” Mitchell said. “We didn’t do ourselves any favours by getting into this position and not being able to really control our own destiny.

“But right now, we need certain people to win at certain times. Our job is to go out there and try to win the next five, then the next three after that.”

Mitchell finished 20-of-27 passing for 299 yards and an interception. He entered weekend action leading the CFL in passing yards (3,383) and TD strikes (21).

Greg Bell’s 15-yard TD run at 11:30 of the fourth and two-point convert put Hamilton up 36-21 after backup Jeremiah Masoli led Ottawa on two scoring drives. Following a 13-yard TD strike to Andre Miller at 2:53, Masoli found Dominique Rhymes on a 10-yard touchdown pass at 7:43 before Khalan Laborn’s two-point convert cut Hamilton’s lead to 29-21.

“When you’re scoring from (15) yards out on a run play, that makes offence easy,” Mitchell said. “It’s one of those things when you get down there as a quarterback, it takes you sometimes five, eight, 10 plays and now it’s ‘OK, now we have to create some stuff and find something.’

“When you hand the ball off and you’re scoring from (15) yards, it makes the offence really easy.”

Ottawa (8-4-1) would have clinched a playoff spot with a victory.

Ottawa committed six turnovers (three interceptions, two fumbles, once on downs) before an announced Tim Hortons Field gathering of 22,119. Lawrence Woods III also returned a punt 83 yards for a touchdown at 11:51 of the first quarter that put Hamilton ahead 10-3.

“You’ve got to bring your best every single week and this wasn’t our best, all of us, from coaches to the players,” said Ottawa head coach Bob Dyce. “If you don’t play great for four quarters, I don’t care who you’re playing you’re not going to have a successful day.

“We should’ve made the tackle (on Woods), we had him wrapped up it’s that simple. Even though we didn’t make the play on that, there should’ve been extra bodies there to clean it up when he did break the tackle.”

Hamilton also tied the season series with Ottawa 1-1. The teams meet again at TD Place on Oct. 25.

“If we didn’t turn it over today I would’ve said we played really well offensively and that to me is what the biggest difference is,” said Hamilton head coach Scott Milanovich. “Even the turnovers today (interception, fumble), at least they were in their end and we weren’t giving them a short field.

“The biggest play of the game was Woodsie’s return. It got us jump-started, gave us the lead and we were kind of off after that.”

Ottawa starter Dru Brown was 17-of-27 passing for 164 yards and an interception. Masoli entered late in the third and finished 13-of-19 passing for 183 yards with two TDs and two interceptions, but Dyce said Brown will start next weekend against Montreal (10-2-1), which earned a 19-19 tie Saturday night with Calgary (4-8-1).

The Canadian Football Hall of Fame’s ’24 class of S.J. Green, Chad Owens, Weston Dressler, Vince Goldsmith and Vince Coleman, along with builders Ray Jauch and Ed Laverty (posthumously), was honoured at halftime. All were enshrined Friday night.

Steven Dunbar Jr. and Ante Litre had Hamilton’s other touchdowns. Marc Liegghio kicked two field goals, three converts and two singles.

Ottawa’s Lewis Ward booted two field goals and a convert.

Mitchell culminated a five-play, 96-yard march with a 20-yard TD pass to Litre at 13:34 of the third. It followed Jonathan Moxey’s interception.

Liegghio’s single at 7:05 of the third put Hamilton up 22-6.

Mitchell’s 54-yard TD strike to Dunbar at 14:18 of the second staked Hamilton to its 21-6 halftime lead. The advantage was well-deserved as the Ticats had more first downs (12-six), net offensive yards (260-144) and scored on both offence and special teams.

Mitchell was 14-of-20 passing for 210 yards and a TD, but his interception cost Hamilton at least a field-goal attempt. Dunbar had five receptions for 113 yards and the touchdown.

Brown completed 13-of-21 passes for 127 yards.

Liegghio’s missed 47-yard attempt went for the single at 12:45 to put Hamilton ahead 14-6. It followed a Kiondre Smith catch that was ruled incomplete and at the very least cost the Ticats a first down that would’ve kept the drive alive.

Ward’s 30-yard kick at 9:15 had pulled Ottawa to within 13-6.

Liegghio’s 19-yard field goal at 5:13 pushed Hamilton’s lead to 13-3. It followed the defence stopping Ottawa’s Dustin Crum on third-and-one, giving the Ticats possession at the Redblacks 40.

Liegghio’s 47-yard field goal opened the scoring at 2:42 before Ward tied in with a 24-yard boot at 8:44.

UP NEXT

Redblacks: Host the Montreal Alouettes (10-2-1) next Saturday, Sept. 21.

Tiger-Cats: Visit the Toronto Argonauts (7-6) on Friday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.



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Toronto FC downs Austin FC to pick up three much-needed points in MLS playoff push

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TORONTO – Needing three points to keep their playoff push alive, Toronto FC’s Jonathan Osorio and Deandre Kerr stepped up with first-half goals against Austin FC on Saturday with goalkeeper Sean Johnson doing his bit at the other end.

A 76th-minute goal by Austin’s Owen Wolff made for a nervy ending but TFC hung on for a 2-1 win.

While Toronto (11-15-3) remains on the Major League Soccer playoff bubble in eighth place in the Eastern Conference (the eighth- and ninth-place teams in each conference square off in a wild-card playoff with the winner facing the top seed in the conference), other results went their way.

Seventh-place Charlotte, 10th-place Atlanta and 11th-place Philadelphia all lost while ninth-place D.C. United tied.

Toronto midfielder Alonso Coello called it “a game we had to win.”

“It’s a big win … To see that fight tonight was important,” added coach John Herdman.

Austin (9-12-7) came into the game in 11th place in the West, two points below ninth-place Minnesota. The Texas side has won just one of its last six league games (1-4-1).

Austin outshot Toronto 7-6 (6-2 edge in shots on target) in the first half but found itself trailing 2-0 at the break as Toronto took advantage of its chances and the visitors didn’t in their first-ever visit to BMO Field, before an announced crowd of 25,538.

Toronto had a dream start, catching Austin on the counterattack in the seventh minute. A sliding Austin player dispossessed an onrushing Kerr, who had been set free by a long ball from Coello, but the ball bounced to Osorio, who beat goalkeeper Brad Stuver with a rising shot.

It was the Toronto captain’s second goal of the season in league play and his 65th for TFC in all competitions. Only Sebastian Giovinco (83) and Jozy Altidore (79) scored more in Toronto colours.

TFC went ahead on another counterattack in the 30th minute after an Austin giveaway. Osorio found Richie Laryea outpacing his marker and the wingback unselfishly sent a perfect low cross across goal for Kerr to knock home for his third of the season.

Wolff, the son of Austin head coach Josh Wolff, made it interesting with his late strike. The 19-year-old U.S. youth international, controlling a long ball, beat defender Raoul Petretta and then waited out Johnson before slotting it home for his first of the season.

Toronto survived a nervy six minutes of stoppage time as Austin pressed for the equalizer. Austin outshot Toronto 14-9 (8-3 in shots on target) and had 52.5 per cent possession.

The win evened Toronto’s home record at 7-7-0, while Austin slipped to 3-8-3 on the road.

It was a costly evening for Austin with defender Brendan Hines-Ike, midfielder Jhojan Valencia and star attacker Sebastian Driussi allpicking up cautions to miss Wednesday’s game with Los Angeles FC due to yellow-card accumulation.

Toronto defender Shane O’Neill will miss Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus for the same reason. Toronto could be short mid-week, too. The hope is veteran centre back Kevin Long, who missed Saturday’s game after tweaking his hamstring in training, will be good to go.

Toronto has five games remaining, including three more at home as it looks to return to the post-season for the first time since 2020 when it lost to Nashville after extra time at the first hurdle.

It is a challenging road.

TFC hosts Columbus, the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami while playing away at the Colorado Rapids and Chicago Fire. All but Chicago are in playoff positions.

The only previous meeting between Toronto and Austin was in May 2023, when Zardes scored a 91st-minute winner to give Austin a 1-0 win over visiting Toronto, which was then mired at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. That loss prompted a post-game outburst from Italian star Federico Bernardeschi about TFC’s drab play.

Then-coach Bob Bradley benched Bernardeschi for the next game.

Current coach John Herdman made four changes to his starting 11 with Bernardeschi and Osorio returning from suspension and Coello and Kerr also slotting in. Coello, who had missed the last eight league games with a hamstring injury, was impressive in his 59-minute return.

Both Toronto and Austin suffered home losses last time out going into the international break. Toronto was beaten 3-1 by D.C. United while Austin lost 1-0 to Vancouver.

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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CF Montreal finds its groove with 2-1 win over Charlotte

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MONTREAL – CF Montreal is back in the win column after securing a 2-1 Major League Soccer win over Charlotte FC on Saturday night at Stade Saputo.

Montreal’s form had suffered of late, with just one win in MLS since July, but Laurent Courtois’ squad showed a level of poise and control over the tempo of the game that had not been seen since the beginning of the season.

“What we’ve changed in the last few weeks or months in terms of our methodology or coaching, is nothing. We did the exact thing, We had the exact same words, and we expressed them the exact same way,” said Courtois. “Today, everything just clicked.”

Caden Clark scored for the first time as a Montreal (7-12-9) player in the 23rd minute, in addition to Bryce Duke’s goal three minutes later that ended up being the winner, while Tim Ream found the back of the net for Charlotte (10-10-8).

Montreal had the first major scoring chance of the match after 15 minutes of play. With a free kick roughly 25 metres away from goal, Gabriele Corbo sent a near-perfect shot smashing off the crossbar.

Montreal would continue to dictate the tempo in the opening phase, finding first blood just seven minutes later.

Following a phenomenal triple-save from Charlotte goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina, the ball fell to Clark who volleyed the ball into the wide-open net, picking up his first goal for the club.

“I think you don’t lose the feeling (of scoring), everything happens for a reason, you just can’t lose yourself in the chaos,” said Clark, who had missed a full season due to injury and was briefly without a club, but was grateful for Courtois’ confidence in him.

“(To have a coach’s confidence) is huge and is something I’ve had both ends of so you just can’t take advantage of that in the wrong way. I’m going to keep my discipline with the game plan and keep my head right.”

With momentum completely on their side, the home side doubled the lead just three minutes later. Montreal continued to build up play on the left flank and found a streaking Raheem Edwards in behind the defence who cut the ball back to Duke, sending the Stade Saputo crowd into a frenzy.

Just after the half-hour mark, Charlotte pulled one back through a set piece — something Montreal has struggled defending all season — as Ream rose above everyone at the back post to score his first with his new club.

The second half began in a similar fashion to the end of the first, with Charlotte pressing high up the pitch and forcing several turnovers in dangerous areas. After surviving the pressure, Montreal began to regain control of the game near the hour mark, enjoying the lion’s share of the possession while Charlotte looked to hit back on the counterattack.

“I think when we conceded that goal we were like ‘here we go again.’ 2-1 is a tough lead before halftime … and at the beginning of the half we kind of shot ourselves in the foot and they pressed a bit more, they moved a bit more forward and that opened some gaps,” said captain Samuel Piette.

“I was happy with that, it shows character. At the end of the day, we just wanted the three points and that’s what we got.”

As the game progressed, Charlotte pushed harder to find an equalizer but to no avail. With only one shot on target conceded, the second-worst defence in the league put up an impressive front and confidently rebuffed every single Charlotte attack.

“I’m a big fan of the back five’s performance in their discipline, competitiveness, and synchronization with balls in behind,” said Courtois.

“We can’t explain sometimes in a game it’s not there, they’re capable and today they showed it. Let’s see tomorrow.”

UP NEXT

Both teams are back in action on Sept. 18 away from home as Montreal will look to avenge a 5-0 rout against the New England Revolution while Charlotte visits Orlando City SC.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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