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Posthaste: This cratering GDP number has only ever been seen during a recession

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Canada’s February gross domestic product numbers were disappointing in more ways than one.

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Statistics Canada data released Tuesday showed the economy grew 0.2 per cent for the month — below analysts’ estimates of 0.3 per cent and StatsCan’s own advanced forecast of 0.4 per cent — revealing an economy that is losing steam.

However, the reading that put economists most on edge was GDP per capita.

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The closely watched measure continued to crater and is now down three per cent from its peak in September 2022, according to Matthieu Arseneau, deputy chief economist at National Bank of Canada.

“A decline of this magnitude has never been recorded outside of a recession,” Arseneau said in a note following the GDP release. He estimates first quarter annualized GDP per capita currently stands at -1.2 per cent, and at -0.3 per cent non-annualized.

GDP per capita was also on the Royal Bank of Canada‘s radar.

Weaker-than-expected GDP coupled with Statistics Canada’s forecast for flat growth in March, “leaves output for Q1 as a whole tracking (by our count) a seventh consecutive per-capita decline,” RBC economist Claire Fan said in a note.

Fan said the bank estimated GDP per capita declined 0.5 per cent in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of 2023.

GDP per capita matters because “it is an indicator of the average standard of living of the population,” Arseneau said in an email. “Higher population growth naturally leads to better economic growth.”

Not this time around.

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Economists have credited Canada’s record population increase with keeping the economy out of technical recession territory, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, on a per-person basis there has been “significant underperformance,” Arseneau said.

Some think that the economy is already in recession based on GDP per capita.

Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group, said in an interview with the Financial Post at the end of February that “when you look at things (GDP) on a per-capita basis, the Canadian economy is, for all intents and purposes, in a recession.”

Despite expected annualized growth of 2.5 per cent for the first quarter that many economists attributed to one-off events, falling GDP per capita is only one sign of a rapidly failing economy, the National Bank of Canada economist said.

“This ‘solid’ growth during the quarter did not prevent the unemployment rate from rising, another sign that economic growth was below potential during the quarter,” Arseneau said.

Canada’s unemployment rate hit 6.1 per cent in March, up from 5.7 per cent in January.

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National Bank is currently calling for the jobless rate to rise to seven per cent by the end of the year.

Other examples of the underlying weakness include the deceleration in the rate of inflation.

Over the last three months, the Bank of Canada’s two preferred measures of core inflation were “running at an annualized pace at the lower end of the central bank’s target range” of one per cent, Arseneau said.

These factors should add up to the Bank of Canada cutting rates this summer, with the economist warning that not doing so could risk economic damage.

“This overly restrictive monetary policy is reflected in our gloomy economic outlook for the coming quarters,” with growth for the year barely registering at 0.6 per cent, Arseneau said.

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March GDP

The Canadian economy lost momentum in February as it grew at a slower pace than both analyst expectations and Statistics Canada’s previous prediction, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Canada for a potential interest rate cut in mid-2024. — Naimul Karim, Financial Post

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  • The United States Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate decision — widely expected to be a hold given rising inflation — at 2 p.m. in Washington, D.C.
  • Gildan Activewear Inc. holds its annual general meeting where activist shareholder and U.S. investment firm Browning West LP will push to have its full slate of 12 directors installed on the board of the T-shirt manufacturing company in a move aimed at reinstating founder Glenn Chamandy as chief executive.
  • The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference will hold a press conference to announce the results of strike votes at Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City.
  • Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem appears before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy starting at 4:15 p.m. EDT.
  • Today’s Data: S&P Global Canada manufacturing purchasing manager’s index; U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association released mortgage data for the last week of April;. Automatic Data Processing releases private-sector employment data for March; S&P Global U.S. manufacturing purchasing manager’s index
  • Earnings: Barrick Gold Corp., Loblaw Cos. Ltd., Fortis Inc., Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, Bausch + Lomb Corp., Cenovus Energy Inc., Great-West Lifeco Inc., Vermilion Energy Inc., Lundin Mining Corp., Tourmaline Oil Corp., Gildan Activewear Inc., The Estee Lauder Co. Inc., Pfizer Inc., Yum Brands Inc., The Kraft Heinz Co., Door Dash Inc., Etsy Inc., Qualcom Inc.
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There’s lots of advice on when to buy a stock, but knowing when to sell can be even more important. Julie Cazzin and investing expert Felix Narhi help this Financial Post reader figure out the timing. Read FP Answers here.


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Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you wondering how to make ends meet? Drop us a line at aholloway@postmedia.com with your contact info and the general gist of your problem and we’ll try to find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course). If you have a simpler question, the crack team at FP Answers led by Julie Cazzin or one of our columnists can give it a shot.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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