Politics

Galloway: Politics in the 2020s will challenge Conservatives in particular – Ottawa Citizen

Published

5 years ago

December 30, 2019

What does the next decade hold for federal politics? Social scientists suggest it may not be kind to the Tories, as veteran political writer Gloria Galloway explains.

Justin Trudeau’s party may have a very good decade. But the parties of Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Sngh face deeper challenges.

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Conservatives, choose your next leader wisely. The person who will replace Andrew Scheer will write the story of Canada’s federal government – and your role within it – for the next 10 years.

As the calendar flips over to another decade, it is a good time to prognosticate about the potential political twists that lie between now and 2030 in a country that has recently elected MPs from five parties representing disparate geographical regions.

The Conservatives are, understandably, bitter about losing the 2019 race. It seemed an easy stroll to victory given the blackface incident and other foibles of the Liberals and leader Justin Trudeau. But though the Tories took the largest share of the popular vote, their path back to power over the next 10 years will not be easy.

They appeal to a narrower range of voters than do the Liberals who can shift left, right and sideways depending on political winds. Tories tend to fragment into pieces, with the far right forming splinter parties, when they move to the centre where the votes are more plentiful. And they skewered themselves by earlier eliminating the per-vote subsidy and financially hobbling the NDP. Only when the New Democrats are robust is Liberal power diminished.

A strong and charismatic leader who can capture the hearts of Quebeckers and win the suburbs of metropolitan Ontario could give the Conservatives a shot at a majority government.

But, at this point, it is much easier to predict that the 2020s will see a series of minorities, and most, if not all, will be Liberal.

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First, a brief look back. For 50 years, decades of federal politics have been dominated by one political leader or another.

In the ‘70s, it was Pierre Trudeau. In the ‘80s it was Brian Mulroney. The ‘90s were Jean Chrétien’s. The aughts went to Stephen Harper as he reunited the right and won successive governments. And the teens, or at least the back half of them, belonged to Justin Trudeau, who restored the Liberals from third place to majority government (though now a minority).

Former Prime Minister of Canada Stephen Harper brought Conservatives together in the 2000s. Not many could maintain that balancing act.

Jose Luis Magana /

The Associated Press

Much of the political longevity of each of those men can be attributed to the power of the party system. Whether Liberal or Conservative, they had large and devoted blocks of partisans standing behind them, championing their decisions and aiding their re-elections.

But pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research, who recently wrote a book called The Age of Voter Rage, says he sees party allegiances “hollowing out,” and predicts that the elections of the next decade will be driven more by issues than by voters’ historical leanings.

That shift could be seen during the Trudeau majority government, he says, when two cabinet ministers stood their ground on principle rather than bowing to the demands of the prime minister.

“There is not the same type of loyalty and the same type of discipline as there was in the past,” says Nanos. And “parties are now much more vulnerable to being taken over by interests.”

Many would say the reason the Tories lost the election was precisely because Scheer’s personality was not strong enough.

That will make politics much more volatile, says Nanos – not just the Liberals but the Conservatives, who could be consumed by hard-right social factions. It will take someone with an iron hand to keep those forces at bay.

In his resignation speech to Parliament, Scheer said the Conservative party is not a cult of personality and is not shaped by the name on the masthead.

But lots of people, including many Conservatives, would disagree. Many would say the reason the Tories lost the election was precisely because Scheer’s personality was not strong enough.

Henry Jacek, a professor emeritus of political science at McMaster University, says voters will accept many flaws but they will not forgive a leader who is boring. And Scheer, says Jacek, was boring.

More than that, it is impossible to see how he could have kept his party together in the new, less politically loyal universe described by Nanos.

Jacek says he envisions the 2020s being a rerun of the 1970s now that the Liberal majority has given way to a Liberal minority. The next election will result in another Liberal majority, he predicts, then a Conservative minority, then back to the Liberals.

All of which is just a guessing game. But it is backed by a bit of science.

In 2011, voters flocked to the NDP’s charismatic Jack Layton.

Andre Forget /

QMI

The Conservatives won their majority in 2011 under Stephen Harper when the New Democrats had a strong candidate in Jack Layton, a native son of Quebec who was able to appeal to the people of that province and draw votes away from the Liberals. But the New Democrats are now a shadow of their 2011 selves and their return to prominence in the near future is doubtful given their precarious financial situation.

Quebec has returned to the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals, which makes a Conservative win more difficult.

Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary, says the Conservatives of the next 10 years will face the same problem that has dogged them through history. Their strength is in western Canada and rural Ontario. And when they try to appeal to Quebec and red Tories in Ontario, they risk losing their base.

Harper held the party together on the strength of his leadership, his track record in the Reform Party, and by periodically giving gifts to the hard right. But that is a skill most politicians don’t have, says Bratt.

Even if western separatism is not a serious movement, the West’s influence in the country will grow both because of population shifts and economic clout, he says. It is something that all future leaders of any political stripe will have to heed.

That does not mean the party leaders of the next decade must come from the West.

Indeed, Jacek says, the Conservatives will have more luck if they choose someone from Ontario – someone with the charisma of Brian Mulroney who can keep the party together even as it adopts a more centrist platform to broaden its appeal.

Or the Liberals will very much enjoy the third decade of this century.

Ottawa freelance journalist Gloria Galloway has covered federal politics for more than 20 years.

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Politics

‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Politics

Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Politics

Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

Published

2 days ago

November 7, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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