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Could These Findings Dramatically Change the Opportunities for COVID-19 Vaccine Stocks? – Motley Fool

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New twists and turns continue to come in the scramble to develop a COVID-19 vaccine.

Last week, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) reported more great results from a phase 1 study of its vaccine candidate mRNA-1273. This week, medical journal The Lancet published positive results for AZD1222, the COVID-19 vaccine candidate being developed by AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) and the University of Oxford. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) also announced more good news for experimental coronavirus vaccine BNT162b1.

There have also been two recent findings that potentially impact all of the drugmakers developing vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. Could these findings dramatically change the prospects for COVID-19 vaccine stocks?

Image source: Getty Images.

Problematic mutations

Earlier this month, science journal Cell published a paper that laid out evidence that a mutation of the novel coronavirus called D614G makes the virus more infectious. This mutation seems to have occurred relatively soon after SARS-CoV-2 first appeared in Wuhan, China. But it’s now present in as many as 97% of COVID-19 tests.

Why could mutations be problematic for COVID-19 vaccines? Just think about how current flu vaccines work. Every year, healthcare experts try to predict which flu strains will be most prevalent. There are different strains because of genetic mutations in the viruses that cause influenza. The flu vaccines that are given for that season target those strains. But the experts aren’t always right. That’s why sometimes people receive a flu vaccine but still get the flu.

There’s good news and bad news when it comes to mutations in the novel coronavirus. First the good news: The D614G mutation shouldn’t affect COVID-19 vaccine candidates in development. This mutation occurs in a different region of the spike protein than the one on which most of the experimental vaccines are based.

What’s the bad news? Future mutations to SARS-CoV-2 could potentially make the vaccines being developed by AstraZeneca, Moderna, and others less effective. Infectious-disease expert Dr. Aileen Marty, of Florida International University, has warned that other mutations could slow the development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine. It’s also possible that vaccines could be rendered less effective after they’re in widespread use.

Losing immunity?

Several studies over the last couple of months have suggested that patients who recover from COVID-19 quickly lose their neutralizing antibodies that protect against the novel coronavirus. Last week, King’s College London released results from the most comprehensive research on this effect so far. And those results raised some concerns.

Neutralizing antibodies are typically produced in patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and reach peak levels after a few weeks. However, the levels of neutralizing antibodies then begin to decline, sometimes significantly.

Patients with SARS and MERS, two other members of the coronavirus family, can still have neutralizing antibodies almost a year later. But the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 appears to be quite different; neutralizing antibodies can practically vanish within a much shorter period of time.

The obvious issue is that immunity for patients who recover from COVID-19 might not last longer than a few months. This isn’t a foregone conclusion, though.

With some infectious diseases such as smallpox, antibody levels can fall significantly, yet people who’ve recovered still enjoy immunity. A similar effect could be seen with SARS-CoV-2. It’s also possible that immune cells called memory T cells could be just as important to providing immunity against the novel coronavirus as neutralizing antibodies. The King’s College London study didn’t assess T-cell levels in patients.

Changing opportunities

The market dynamics for COVID-19 vaccines (and the stocks of the companies that make them) could be changed by both of these findings. For example, genetic mutations that make the novel coronavirus more infectious or more severe would almost certainly drive higher demand for COVID-19 vaccines. Individuals who might be reluctant to receive a vaccine could change their minds if the pandemic worsens.

But what if genetic mutations occur that cause COVID-19 vaccines to be ineffective? Drugmakers like AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Pfizer could be engaged in a continual race to develop modified vaccines to keep up with the new viral strains. And demand wouldn’t be nearly as high for vaccines that have a high probability of not working.

Perhaps a greater impact for COVID-19 vaccine companies, though, could be experienced if immunity lasts for only a few months after vaccination. It’s possible that this could boost sales for the drugmakers, since more vaccine doses would be needed each year. On the other hand, it’s also not out of the question that many individuals would forgo a short-acting vaccine altogether.

Regardless of what happens, any of the drugmakers that ultimately win regulatory approval for their respective COVID-19 vaccine candidates should capture part of a massive multibillion-dollar market. But just how big that market will actually be depends on the twists and turns that could be on the way.

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Canada to donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to combat mpox outbreaks in Africa

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The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.

It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.

Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”

Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.

Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.

On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.

Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”

But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”

“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.

Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.

Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.

Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.

“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.

“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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