A new study has analyzed nearly 30 years of scientific data related to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The analysis points toward a possible global sea level rise of at least 10 cm by the end of the 21st century if global warming were to continue at the current trend.
Iceberg off Ammassalik Island, southeast Greenland. Image Credit: Professor Edward Hanna.
The researchers warn that the estimates, which are largely in agreement with recent estimates reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are “conservative” due to the strong impacts of changes in weather systems and potential ways in which ice loss is accelerated.
Led by Professor Edward Hanna from the University of Lincoln in the United Kingdom, an international research team, including climatologists and glaciologists from Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium, and the United States, performed the new study that evaluates the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to climate change. The study outcomes have been reported in the International Journal of Climatology.
The Greenland Ice Sheet is a huge reservoir of ice containing water sufficient to eventually increase the global sea level by 7 m.
The team offers a fresh analysis of data related to the Greenland surface air temperature for the past 30 years until 2019, where the focus of the study was not only on coastal weather stations but also on the analysis of records from comparatively long-running sites on the inner plateau of the ice sheet.
The study identified that the Greenland coastal regions warmed considerably by around 4.4 °C in winter and 1.7 °C in summer from 1991 to 2019.
The study combined Greenland temperature data with the output of the computer model of ice-sheet mass balance for 1972 to 2018 and demonstrated that every 1 °C of summer warming leads to 116 billion tons of total mass loss and 91 billion tons of surface mass loss from the ice sheet annually.
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Furthermore, the researchers employed certain newly available global and regional climate modeling tools to evaluate that, under the influence of sustained strong global warming (a “business as usual” scenario), Greenland could probably warm up to 4.0 °C–6.6 °C by the year 2100.
These latest and predicted future Greenland warmings are significantly higher compared to global temperature variations for corresponding time periods, which point toward a high sensitivity of the polar regions to climate change.
The researchers then used the relation they derived between the latest variations in Greenland summer temperature and surface mass balance to estimate a 10–12.5 cm increase in global sea-level rise by 2100, caused by increased Greenland surface mass loss and ice melt.
Prof. Hanna’s research group also examined the relationship between the changes in Greenland air temperature and a phenomenon known as atmospheric high-pressure blocking, which is caused by a higher-than-normal mass of air occasionally positioned over Greenland.
Although this relation has usually existed previously, it has gained more strength in summer and spring in recent decades. The researchers demonstrate that Greenland blocking played a vital role in the near-record Greenland melt in the summer of 2019 (narrowly exceeded by the all-time record in 2012) and indicate that potential future variations in blocking must be taken into account in computer-model projections of climate change.
The Greenland Ice Sheet is one of the most sensitive and reliable measures of global climate change. Here we have used relatively simple statistical analysis of data and model output from the last 30 years as a sense-check on prediction of future ice-sheet surface mass change.
Edward Hanna, Professor, Climate Science and Meteorology, School of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health, University of Lincoln
Hanna continued, “Our work, which represents in part a major updated analysis of Greenland climate records, is highly interdisciplinary since it cross-cuts between climate science and glaciology, and so will help improve interpretation of recent ice-sheet changes.”
The authors’ group very sadly observes the passing of their co-author Professor Konrad “Koni” Steffen from the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL, who unfortunately died in an accident in Greenland on August 8th, 2020. Prof. Steffen was a trailblazer in Greenland Ice Sheet research and an esteemed, good, loyal, and inspiring collaborator over several years. The team misses him very much.
Journal Reference:
Hanna, E., et al. (2020) Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change. International Journal of Climatology. doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771.
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.
Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.
She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.
Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.
“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.
It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.
Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.
Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.
Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.
“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.
He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.
Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.
Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.
Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.
The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.
The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.
It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.
Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.
Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.
Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.
Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.
Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.
The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”
VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.
Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”
Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.
“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.
B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.
Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.
Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.
Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.
“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”
Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”
“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.
Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.
“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.
