One year removed from a sterling MVP season, Taylor Hall is once again on the move.
The newly minted Arizona Coyotes winger is set to play out the rest of the season in the desert, where he’ll have the chance to bolster an already impressive Western Conference dark horse. But it’s what happens after the season wraps up that is top of mind, now.
With Hall and the Devils parting ways, it seems there’s a strong chance the 2010 No. 1 pick plays out the year and becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer, opening his doors to the league at large to try to bring him to town.
There’s a chance he stays in Arizona if all goes well, of course. But either way, the most intriguing aspect of the entire saga is what exactly happens once Hall eventually does put pen to paper. With John Tavares upending the way franchise players handle free agency, and the new generation pushing the envelope in terms of what young stars are owed early on in their careers, there’s plenty to sort through to suss out what exactly Hall might be worth.
Hall’s Situation
Before we can look to any external market factors, we have to pin down what exactly Hall is and what he brings to the table.
A few key particulars to highlight: He’ll come to his new deal at age 28, fresh off an injury-shortened 2018-19 season and a tumultuous 2019-20 (though he has seemed to return to form as of late — we’ll get there in a moment). Hall’s last full NHL season saw him win the Hart Trophy as the league’s MVP — surely a bargaining chip that’ll feature prominently in future discussions.
Of course, it’s worth remembering that during Hall’s MVP campaign, he wasn’t necessarily the most dominant player in the league, as has been the case for some other MVPs. With the then-Devil finishing sixth in league scoring, his MVP case was built more on the impact his play had on pulling the Devils up by 27 points and lifting them back into the playoffs for the first time in half a decade. The most telling stat that illustrated that level of import to his team, of course, was the fact that Hall finished 41 points above the next highest-scorer on his team (linemate Nico Hischier) — the highest such differential between a team’s leading scorer and No. 2 in nearly a decade.
All to say that Hall’s MVP season doesn’t necessarily indicate he’s one of the game’s absolute best, but rather that he established himself as a player capable of having a significant impact on raising up his team as a whole (though the 2019-20 Devils’ struggles certainly put a dent in that reputation).
New Jersey’s @hallsy09 received 72 first-place tallies and garnered 1,264 voting points to edge Nathan MacKinnon, the top choice of 60 voters, by 70 points. #NHLAwardspic.twitter.com/xCCeM0FUNK
The quick-footed winger put up a career-high 93 points that season, and also has one season above the 80-point plateau, one above 65 and has topped 50 points three other times in his career. He finished just under 40 goals during his MVP bid, but didn’t get above 30 in any others.
In terms of his league-wide impact, Hall’s been among the top 10 scorers in the league since entering the NHL in 2010, having amassed the eighth-most points of any NHLer in that span. Just a year ago, Andrew Berkshire tabbed Hall as the best left winger in the game — beating out game changers like Brad Marchand and Artemi Panarin — drawing attention to the balance of Hall’s elite skill-set.
While the Calgary, Alta., native seemed off to start the year, Berkshire recently explained why the former No. 1 pick has rounded back into form and appears ready to dominate as he did last time he was fully healthy. That being the case, our expectation should be that, with plenty of season left to go, Hall lays down a strong 2019-20 effort and inks his new deal as one of the best wingers in the game (read: he’s going to get paid).
Also sure to play a key role in raising the value of Hall’s next deal is the rising salary cap — with Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reporting the cap could rise a couple million from it’s current upper limit of $81.5 million, the winger and his representatives will have a higher number to which they can tie his value, looking to ensure Hall’s deal slices out a similar percentage of the cap as deals for other recently-signed comparable stars.
But it all comes down to one key question: Is Hall worth $10 million a year?
A number of different factors will determine if that’s the case. For some perspective, it’s worth looking back at some recent comparables — we opted for five players who (a) are among the top earners in the league this year, (b) signed within the past two years, in somewhat of a similar cap world as Hall will be negotiating in, and (c) are at a similar point in their careers, i.e. not a young star like Auston Matthews coming off an entry-level deal or a veteran like Blake Wheeler signing what’s likely his last contract.
Contract: 8 years, $76 million Cap Hit: $9.5 million Percentage of Cap: 11.9 per cent
Stone was in somewhat of a similar position as Hall when he inked his deal with Vegas — with re-signing in Ottawa seeming a longshot, he was dealt to the Golden Knights mid-season with unrestricted free agency approaching. Of course, Stone signed on with Vegas soon after, while Hall seems more likely to wait it out until the off-season. A winger like Hall and signed at a similar age (27), Stone came to his new deal as a 60-point player praised as one of the best two-way talents in the game — evidenced by the fact he was runner up for the Selke Trophy after signing on with Vegas.
He isn’t the type of offensive force that Hall is — Stone’s career .838 points-per-game pace sits far below Hall’s career .905 — but he carries a different type of premier value due to his two-way prowess. Determining which of those two is worth more is difficult to quantify, and likely based more on what other elements a team already has on the roster, but when all was said and done, Stone was given just under $10 million, long-term by the Golden Knights, his $9.5 million ranking as the highest cap hit on the team.
Contract: 8 years, $76 million Cap Hit: $9.5 million Percentage of Cap: 11.9 per cent
Kucherov was a couple years younger when he inked his eight-year deal, re-signing with the Lightning at 26. He was already in the midst of establishing himself as one of the game’s premier scorers, coming off a 100-point season with an 80-point campaign one year prior, and two seasons above 60 before that. But more importantly, Kucherov scored at or near 40 goals in each of the two years leading up to the deal, likely the most significant factor in earning him his eventual sum. He came to his negotiations with no personal hardware to his name (the breakout campaign that saw him snag the Hart Trophy, Art Ross Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award came after he had re-signed), but it was fairly clear which direction the young Russian phenom’s game was trending.
Though also a winger like Hall and Stone, Kucherov entered his negotiation as a better offensive weapon than either, having proven his ability to produce more goals and overall points. Of course, there is some tax trickery at play, as Kucherov’s cap hit isn’t necessarily indicative of his overall worth given the fact that Florida has no state income tax. Elite scoring included, Kucherov signed on for $9.5 million per year long-term on a deal identical to Stone’s.
Contract: 8 years, $78.8 million Cap Hit: $9.85 million Percentage of Cap: 12.4 per cent
Seguin is the first of these comparables to seemingly to get the centre bump — centremen tend to be paid the most of any position, and Seguin is no exception, slotting in slightly above wingers Kucherov and Stone at $9.85 million per year. He’s a straightforward comparable to Hall in one sense, considering the two have been linked since before their draft year and went off the board Nos. 1 and 2 in 2010, but the difference in position is key. Seguin was 26 when he inked his deal, and did so having scored at a slightly lower rate than Hall (.864 career points per game vs. Hall’s .905). Like the previous two wingers, Seguin didn’t come to the deal with any individual trophies to his name, though he did play a role in the Bruins’ 2011 championship run during his rookie year in Boston.
Though Seguin’s never had a single season that’s matched Hall’s MVP campaign — hitting 90 points and winning a major award like the Hart — he’s been a more consistent scorer year in and year out, having topped 70 points six different times while Hall’s done so only twice (with injuries playing a key role in that discrepancy). It’s worth noting linemate and captain Jamie Benn is signed on for $9.5 million per year, which may have played a part in determining Seguin’s yearly number. Benn’s trajectory serves as an interesting comparable for Hall as well — the left winger signed his big-money deal in 2016, a season removed from having clinched the Art Ross Trophy in what seemed a potential outlier campaign. Benn put up one more season above 80 points, but hasn’t gotten close to that production since — he has five more years at $9.5 million after this one.
Contract: 7 years, $77 million Cap Hit: $11 million Percentage of Cap: 13.8 per cent
Tavares’ signing situation is the first of these comparables to have been set up similar to what Hall’s process will likely look like — a genuine superstar heading to the open market, allowing the league at large to bid for his services. Signing at age 27, Tavares came to the new deal as a two-time Hart Trophy nominee with three 80-point campaigns to his name, a 70-point effort and three 60-point seasons. He’d scored at a much higher pace than Hall overall, rolling along at a career clip of .928 points per game with the Islanders. And, of course, Tavares earned an extra bump as a centreman, and captain material.
While he didn’t have the Hart Trophy win to his name, his two nominations put him in that same camp as Hall in that regard. That alongside better offensive numbers, and success in all that comes with manning the middle of the ice as a premier top-line centreman. All told, it seems he’d be a more valuable commodity than Hall, and with the added wrinkle of entering free agency as arguably the biggest name to ever hit the market, Tavares was able to sign on for a hefty $11 million per year long-term (though for one year shorter than the previous deals listed here).
Contract: 7 years, $81.5 million Cap Hit: $11.643 million Percentage of Cap: 14.3 per cent
Panarin’s deal might be the most interesting of the bunch in comparison to what Hall could get. Debuting with two years of roughly 75 points alongside Patrick Kane in Chicago, Panarin established his value as a player a team could build an offence around when he was shipped to Columbus, putting up 82 and 87 points over the past two years in that central role. Though he had no MVP nominations to his name when he signed in New York this past summer, the Calder Trophy-winner has been a better overall scorer than Hall during his short time in the league, scoring at a .994 points-per-game clip over his four NHL seasons.
There’s plenty here that seems to line up, ostensibly, with Hall’s upcoming negotiation — if the former Devil chooses to wait things out as opposed to signing on with Arizona. Panarin signed at 27, just a year younger than Hall will be this summer, and — like Tavares and potentially Hall — did so as the prized name on the free-agent market. Though Panarin has seemed a more dynamic scorer so far, it’s tough to say there’s too significant a discrepancy between he and Hall when it comes to their offensive potential, especially considering the year Hall just put up during his MVP bid.
There is quite a difference when it comes to their track record of staying in games, though. Panarin missed only six games through those first four seasons in the league, while Hall has played a full 82-game season just once over the past decade. He’s been above 70 games four times, and played nearly the full lockout-shortened season in 2012-13, but has four other seasons of finishing at or below 65 games. That injury potential seems certain to come into play when a long-term, big-money deal is on the table.
Panarin reset the market for a star UFA winger at this point in his career — he did so as a slightly younger player with an established reputation as one of the game’s premier offensive talents. That doesn’t seem entirely different from Hall’s situation.
That said, the latter’s injury history changes things. It seems where that final number settles will depend on where exactly the winger looks to go — if he’s willing to sign on with a rebuilding team, returning to a situation akin to his Devils years, then something approaching $10 million doesn’t seem out of the question. But if Hall’s hoping to join a contender and give himself a chance to close out his career with a Cup, as he’s stated publicly, that number will have to drop a fair amount.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic fell 6-4, 6-3 to Poland’s Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open tennis tournament on Friday.
The 19-year-old from Mississauga, Ont., won 61 per cent of her first-serve points and broke on just one of her six opportunities.
Stakusic had upset top-seeded Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) on Thursday night to advance.
In the opening round, Stakusic defeated Slovakia’s Anna Karolína Schmiedlová 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday.
The fifth-seeded Frech won 62 per cent of her first-serve points and converted on three of her nine break point opportunities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Alejandro Kirk’s long single with the bases loaded provided the Toronto Blue Jays with a walk-off 4-3 win in the 11th inning of their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.
With the Cardinals outfield in, Kirk drove a shot off the base of the left-field wall to give the Blue Jays (70-78) their fourth win in 11 outings and halt the Cardinals’ (74-73) two-game win streak before 30,380 at Rogers Centre.
Kirk enjoyed a two-hit, two-RBI outing.
Erik Swanson (2-2) pitched a perfect 11th inning for the win, while Cardinals reliever Ryan Fernandez (1-5) took the loss.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman enjoyed a seven-inning, 104-pitch outing. He surrendered his two runs on nine hits and two walks and fanned only two Cardinals.
He gave way to reliever Genesis Cabrera, who gave up a one-out homer to Thomas Saggese, his first in 2024, that tied the game in the eighth.
The Cardinals started swiftly with four straight singles to open the game. But they exited the first inning with only two runs on an RBI single to centre from Nolan Arendao and a fielder’s choice from Saggese.
Gausman required 28 pitches to escape the first inning but settled down to allow his teammates to snatch the lead in the fourth.
He also deftly pitched out of threats from the visitors in the fifth, sixth and seventh thanks to some solid defence, including Will Wagner’s diving stop, which led to a double play to end the fifth inning.
George Springer led off with a walk and stole second base. He advanced to third on Nathan Lukes’s single and scored when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knocked in his 95th run with a double off the left-field wall.
Lukes scored on a sacrifice fly to left field from Spencer Horwitz. Guerrero touched home on Kirk’s two-out single to right.
In the ninth, Guerrero made a critical diving catch on an Arenado grounder to throw out the Cardinals’ infielder, with reliever Tommy Nance covering first. The defensive gem ended the inning with a runner on second base.
St. Louis starter Erick Fedde faced the minimum night batters in the first three innings thanks to a pair of double plays. He lasted five innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts.
ON DECK
Toronto ace Jose Berrios (15-9) will start the second of the three-game series on Saturday. He has a six-game win streak.
The Cardinals will counter with righty Kyle Gibson (8-6).
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
CALGARY – Mired in their first four-game losing skid in 20 years, the Calgary Stampeders are going back to Jake Maier at quarterback on Saturday after he was benched for a game.
It won’t be an easy assignment.
Visiting McMahon Stadium are the Eastern Conference-leading Montreal Alouettes (10-2) who own the CFL’s best record. The Stampeders (4-8) have fallen to last in the Western Conference.
“Six games is plenty of time, but also it is just six games,” said Maier. “We’ve got to be able to get on the right track.”
Calgary is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
“I do still believe in this team,” said Stampeders’ head coach and general manager Dave Dickenson. “I want to see improvement, though. I want to see guys on a weekly basis elevating their game, and we haven’t been doing that.”
Maier is one of the guys under the microscope. Two weeks ago, the second-year starter threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Edmonton Elks.
After his replacement, rookie Logan Bonner, threw five picks in last week’s 37-16 loss to the Elks in Edmonton, the football is back in Maier’s hands.
“Any time you fail or something doesn’t go your way in life, does it stink in the moment? Yeah. But then the days go on and you learn things about yourself and you learn how to prepare a little bit better,” said Maier. “It makes you mentally tougher.”
Dickenson wants to see his quarterback making better decisions with the football.
“Things are going to happen, interceptions will happen, but try to take calculated risks, rather than just putting the ball up there and hoping that we catch it,” said Dickenson.
A former quarterback himself, he knows the importance of that vital position.
“You cannot win without good quarterback play,” Dickenson said. “You’ve got to be able to make some plays — off-schedule plays, move-around plays, plays that break down, plays that aren’t designed perfectly, but somehow you found the right guy, and then those big throws where you’re taking that hit.”
But it’s going to take a team effort, and that includes the club’s receiving corp.
“We always have to band together because we need everything to go right for our receivers to get the ball,” said Nik Lewis, the Stampeders’ receivers coach. “The running back has to pick up the blitz, the o-line has to block, the quarterback has to make the right reads, and then give us a catchable ball.”
Lewis brings a unique perspective to this season’s frustrations as he was a 22-year-old rookie in Calgary in 2004 when the Stamps went 4-14 under coach Matt Dunigan. They turned it around the next season and haven’t missed the playoffs since.”
“Thinking back and just looking at it, there’s just got to be an ultimate belief that you can get it done. Look at Montreal, they were 6-7 last year and they’ve gone 18-2 since then,” said Lewis.
Montreal is also looking to rebound from a 37-23 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. But for head coach Jason Maas, he says his team’s mindset doesn’t change, regardless of what happened the previous week.
“Last year when we went through a four-game losing streak, you couldn’t tell if we were on a four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak by the way the guys were in the building, the way we prepared, the type of work ethic we have,” said Maas. “All our standards are set, so that’s all we focus on.”
While they may have already clinched a playoff spot, Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo says this closing stretch remains critical because they want to finish the season strong, just like last year when they won their final five regular-season games before ultimately winning the Grey Cup.
“It doesn’t matter about what you do at the beginning of the year,” said Fajardo. “All that matters is how you end the year and how well you’re playing going into the playoffs so that’s what these games are about.”
The Alouettes’ are kicking off a three-game road stretch, one Fajardo looks forward to.
“You understand what kind of team you have when you play on the road because it’s us versus the world mentality and you can feel everybody against you,” said Fajardo. “Plus, I always tend to find more joy in silencing thousands of people than bringing thousands of people to their feet.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
