Week 5 of the NFL season is here and we’ve got no time to waste.
After a few subpar matchups on Thursday Night Football, we’ve got the two quarterbacks that went toe-to-toe in Super Bowl 52 set for a rematch.
The last time we saw Nick Foles and Tom Brady on the field against each other, it was Foles and the Philly Special that got the best of Brady.
But Foles has been anything but special since he left the Eagles, and Vegas doesn’t think that’ll be the case this time around.
Watch the game LIVE across the TSN Network at at 7:30PM ET / 4:30PM PT.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears
Line: Tampa Bay -3.5
Total: 43.5
Brady and the Bucs
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Tom Brady looked really good on Sunday.
His 369 passing yards against the Los Angeles Chargers were the most he’s thrown in a game since his 505 yards in Super Bowl LII, and he threw for five touchdowns, a mark he’s reached just eight times in his career.
Brady at the young age of 43 is showing the league that he still has plenty of bullets left in the chamber.
During his 20 seasons with the New England Patriots, the quarterback didn’t face the Chicago Bears too many times.
But he’s had the team’s number when he has taken them on.
Brady holds a perfect 5-0 record in his career against the Bears organization and has scored at least 33 points in four of those games.
He also holds a perfect 3-0 record at Soldier Field, picking up wins there in 2002, 2010 and 2018.
In all three of those games his team recorded at least 33 points each time, and in 2018 he passed for 277 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-31 win.
He enters the game with an over / under set at 261.5 passing yards and is -145 to have more than 1.5 touchdowns.
With running back LeSean McCoy already out and Leonard Fournette listed as doubtful, Ronald Jones should get the bulk of the carries tonight for the Bucs.
Jones is coming off his best game of the season after he rushed for 111 yards on 20 carries against the Chargers. He also added six receptions for 67 yards.
He enters the game with and over / under of 67.5 rushing yards, 94.5 rushing + receiving yards and is +333 to score multiple touchdowns.
Bear Down
It’s amazing how much can change in one week.
After Week 3, the Bears were flying high after Nick Foles came off the bench to save the day and steal a win against the Atlanta Falcons.
Head coach Matt Nagy named him the starter for Week 4, showing that the time was finally ready to move on from the Mitch Trubisky era.
But then something horrible happened.
The Bears and Foles looked bad.
The offence struggled once again, scoring just 11 points against the Indianapolis Colts in a 19-11 slop-fest of a game.
Foles had a flash of something good when he led an eight-play 90-yard drive in the fourth quarter to give Chicago its only touchdown of the day.
But his 249 passing yards, one touchdown and interception just wasn’t enough and Foles dropped to 0-5 as a starter since he left Philadelphia after the 2018 season.
It wasn’t just Foles who struggled, as running back David Montgomery rushed for just 27 yards on 10 carries in the Week 4 loss.
Montgomery enters the game with an over / under of 49.5 yards and it’s a number he surpassed in the opening two weeks of the season, but failed to do it in Weeks 3 and 4.
On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay’s run defence has been stellar.
The team held Alvin Kamara to 16 yards on 12 carries in Week 1, held Christan McCaffery to 3.3 yards to per carry a full 1.3 below his career average – and held both the Broncos in Week 3 and the Chargers in Week 4 to under 49.5 yards of rushing.
The Line
Tampa Bay enters the game as a three-and-a-half point favourite and that number feels right.
These are two teams currently treading in different directions. Not to mention it’s Tom Brady in primetime.
After opening the season as an underdog, Tampa Bay is 2-1 at covering the spread as a favourite, with the lone loss coming last week when they failed to cover by half of a point.
If Brady’s past results with the Pats are any indication, the Bucs are in good shape tonight because Brady is 9-1 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread in 10 midweek games, all of them as a favourite.
And, following his Week 4 loss to the Colts, Foles not only dropped to 0-5 as a starter since 2019, but he is also 0-5 against the spread in that time as well.
Add the fact that it’s a short week and Foles has still had limited time in this offence and it’s hard to pick against Brady and the Buccaneers.
Pick: Buccaneers
ATS Pick: Buccaneers -3.5
