Projections for 2020 went out the window by about the third week in February. What was supposed to be a year of restrained real estate sales and sluggish economic growth wound up generating both a full-on housing boom and a whiplash-inducing recession. The uncertainty of the past seven months makes projecting next year’s real estate activity a daunting challenge, but as 2021 draws near, any insight into what’s coming around the bend is sure to receive more than a passing glance from Canadian investors, realtors, and mortgage brokers.
PwC Canada and the Urban Land Institute recently teamed up to share their take on where Canadian real estate is headed in 2021. The groups’ Emerging Trends in Real Estate report, released on October 15, paints a picture of a housing market in which buyers, sellers, and developers have been forced to adjust to a plethora of destabilizing changes, from new short-term economic realities to market fundamentals that may be altered forever.
“The coming year will be all about embracing opportunities to be resilient in the face of uncertainty, while shifting strategies in anticipation of market headwinds,” says Frank Magliocco, PwC Canada’s national real estate leader. “For the first time in a few years, we’re hearing divergent views from industry players about issues like the future of office spaces and the urbanization and suburbanization trends.”
Based on a collection of interviews and surveys with almost 3,000 commercial investors, real estate advisors, banks, and builders, the report, at 117 pages, is a rather gargantuan summation of the perceived trends shaping Canadian real estate. Here are a few of the most relevant highlights.
Residential real estate
There was little consensus around what might happen in the residential sector. Some respondents felt that urbanization could stall if remote work begins drawing people from densely populated and expensive cities to more affordable centres nearby. One Toronto developer reported having already adapted its strategy as a way of getting ahead of the urban exodus, resulting in looking “further afield” for development opportunities.
The urban exodus theory, however, is roundly contradicted by the fact that demand for low-rise homes in suburban locations has remained high throughout the pandemic. The report lists “18-hour cities” – vibrant metros that are international in flavour but not quite on the scale of Toronto – as being particularly attractive for homebuyers. Quebec City, Halifax, Waterloo, and London are provided as examples. Still, PwC expects housing activity to slow across Canada “at least for the next year.”
Concerns over condo prices were mostly confined to the GTA, but the softening currently affecting the city’s condo market is expected to be short-lived. Many interviewees were of the opinion that condo living itself might be in need of a rethink, as being cooped up in a 500-square-foot box has become a version of hell for people who spent much of the spring inside their units.
“A number of features are being incorporated to make condos more attractive to buyers, such as videoconferencing rooms, dedicated areas for parcel and grocery deliveries, improved amenities and tools to create more connected communities,” reads the report.
When asked to rank their local markets on a scale of one to five across six different metrics, the top four were Toronto (with an average score of 4.23), Vancouver (4.22), Montreal (3.8), and Ottawa (3.56). The three lowest-ranked markets were Saskatoon (2.46), Halifax (2.58), and Calgary (2.61).
Commercial real estate
Somewhat unsurprisingly, warehousing and fulfillment was the commercial sub-sector tapped by most respondents as having the brightest prospects. The ubiquitousness of e-commerce was cited as a major factor, but those interviewed said that supply chain disruptions experienced by some companies during the pandemic have prompted them to keep more inventory on hand, leading to an increased need for storage space. Survey respondents gave the prospects of fulfillment spaces a ranking of 4.67 while those of warehouses received a 4.0.
Multifamily residential properties, particularly those for moderate income earners, are also expected to perform well in 2021. The report says demand may shift, “with renters and homebuyers looking to live in townhouses and mid-rise buildings rather than larger towers that have been the trend in urban centres in recent years”, but the higher rents associated with townhouses could keep many renters in this particular income range in place. Interviewees gave this asset class’s future a 3.79.
Medical office, which received a 3.75 from respondents, is another category expected to offer investors stability in 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a rise in the adoption of virtual health services but, as the report states, “there will be an ongoing need for physical space for care that can’t be delivered digitally as well as for diagnostic equipment.” One interviewee theorized that some healthcare facilities could take up unused space in high-traffic community locations like malls and smaller plazas.
Proptech
Considering the rapid evolution of real estate technologies over the past decade, it’s not as if the industry in Canada was in need of an innovation trigger, but COVID-19 gave the sector a hearty shove into the future. One respondent said property-related technology “has accelerated by a decade” during the pandemic.
The same business continuity solutions – videoconferencing, cloud technologies – that have kept real estate humming are expected to generate continued demand in 2021, as are those that support safe re-openings of office and retail properties.
Continued growth is expected to be seen in technologies that encourage customer engagement and sales, such as virtual tours, voice-activated devices that can guide buyers through a home, and pre-sale tools that help buyers whittle down their lists of prospective properties to visit.
But it was construction tech that respondents said would be the most impactful disruptor in 2021.
“Many interviewees believe that modular construction solutions that address labour shortages have reached the point where they make more sense from a cost perspective and are seeing greater adoption as a result,” the report says, adding that construction companies are showing heightened interest in “digital twin technologies” that use sensor data to improve design and construction processes.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
