While the current investment environment is very challenging, investors increase their risks if they bet on the hot sector of the day or pull out their money and default to cash.
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The current investment landscape is not an easy one to navigate. Technology stocks are trading at record highs; value stocks have been underperforming for years, although they have recently shown signs of life; bond rates are close to zero; and holding cash is a money-loser once inflation is taken into account. So, what are financial advisors and investors to do?
While the current investment environment is very challenging, the biggest risk that most investors with a long-term horizon face is not losing money, but not having enough of it. That’s why there’s no alternative to staying invested in a well-diversified portfolio.
Although there’s no magic formula, there are some prudent steps that can be taken to get through these challenging times. Here are three simple and proven investment strategies to consider:
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1. Avoid extremes
There’s a growing group of investors who think they should concentrate their portfolios on a few big technology stocks – especially because of their strong performance during the COVID-19 crisis. That’s because the dopamine hit investors get when they make a correct bet on the market direction is often very stimulating.
That effect becomes difficult for investors to control and, as long as it’s working, they’re encouraged to take on more and more extreme bets on the market’s direction. They will consider it a better strategy than diversification.
The problem with this approach is that no stock or sector outperforms the market all the time. One day, something else will replace the performance generated by the big technology stocks – and nobody knows what that will be.
That’s why good advisors preach diversification even if it makes many investors feel remorseful in the short term. These advisors will also remind investors that diversification means getting the good, missing out on the extraordinary, but preventing the tragic.
For investors who are adamant on making such bets, advisors can suggest that they set up a “fun portfolio” in which they can place a smaller amount of money in a self-directed account. That will allow them to attempt to time the market without putting all of their assets at risk.
It’s an easy way for investors to fulfill that urge while ensuring most of their assets remain in well-diversified portfolios.
2. Prevent the default to cash
Faced with one of the most challenging investment environments in decades, some investors will shy away from investing altogether and default to cash. Although a global pandemic and growing geopolitical tension are two very good reasons to stay on the sidelines right now, there’s a big risk in doing so.
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Holding too much cash in a portfolio leads to a vicious cycle. When the market goes up, investors tell themselves they’ll wait for the next correction; then, when the market goes down, they’ll say that they’ll wait for it to drop further. As such, investors who succumbed to a “cash addiction” in 2000, 2008, or even this past March paid a heavy price. Of course, it’s easy to look back at these dates in hindsight and say that investing during these periods was a no-brainer, but that’s never the case.
Finally, the accompanying table shows the lousy returns cash has provided to investors during the past 10 years. It’s very difficult for investors to reach their life goals if they get a negative real rate of return 10 years in a row. That’s why advisors help fight the addiction to cash among some investors by focusing on their financial plans, making sure they stay invested, and by helping them manage the inevitable cycles of fear and greed.
Annual return on cash, adjusted for inflation
Year
Return (%)
CPI (%)
Real return (%)
2019
1.65
2.25
-0.60
2018
1.38
1.99
-0.61
2017
0.56
1.87
-1.31
2016
0.51
1.50
-0.99
2015
0.63
1.61
-0.98
2014
0.91
1.47
-0.56
2013
1.01
1.24
-0.23
2012
1.01
0.83
0.18
2011
1.00
2.30
-1.30
2010
0.54
2.35
-1.81
Source: FTSE 91-day T-bill total return and Canadian consumer Price Index (YOY, NSA)
3. Focus on preparation more than predictions
Predictions are about trying to forecast the future while preparation is about setting the right expectations for whatever may hold. Investing has a lot more to do with preparation as it’s very difficult to foresee what will happen in the future correctly.
Good advisors can help investors prepare by performing a “pre-mortem” of their investment portfolios to know what could go wrong and how they should react if those scenarios were to happen. For example, advisors can help investors prepare for a situation in which tech stocks could fall by 25 per cent in a short time – and whether they should buy more shares or liquidate their positions.
Preparing for these situations ahead of time allows investors to follow a process instead of their emotions when these events happen. That leads to better results in the long term.
Jonathan Durocher is president of National Bank Financial Wealth Management.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
