For all the bluster among federal political leaders about not wanting an election any time soon, the political truth is as cold as a winter’s wind: the potential for one is a reality in 2021.
For now, political parties say getting through the long dark winter without the health-care system collapsing due to COVID-19 is a priority, as is ensuring vaccines quickly and effectively reach all parts of the country.
But running parallel to that is the ongoing debate over how to cushion the economic blow caused by the pandemic.
Who has the best ideas on that score and ought to be entrusted with running the country as Canada builds itself back up is expected to be the dominant ballot box question come the next election.
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Here’s a look at some of the factors at play that could shape how or when that election is called.
The Liberals
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laid out the broad strokes of his vision for Canada in the fall throne speech and subsequent economic update. He’ll return to it again in the 2021 budget.
But with a minority government, his desire to “build back better” rests on continuing to get support from other parties for any legislation he seeks to advance.
3:33 Coronavirus: ‘I do not want an election,’ Trudeau says
Coronavirus: ‘I do not want an election,’ Trudeau says – Sep 16, 2020
That the Liberals have survived thus far is largely thanks to the New Democrats who have propped up the government in several confidence votes.
Should Trudeau want to go to the polls to seek a majority mandate — a decision he may make based on public polling suggesting one is possible — he may have to slip a poison pill for the NDP into a confidence motion to ensure they vote him down.
Meanwhile, on their right flank the Liberals will seek any opportunity to jump on comments from Conservative MPs or their leader, Erin O’Toole, that could allow the party to be painted as extremely right wing.
A recent fundraising email to that effect using some of O’Toole’s own comments helped the Liberals hit one of their strongest weeks of online fundraising since the 2019 campaign.
The Conservatives
The goal for the Conservatives in the next election is to form government.
Their path to victory revolves around making the case the Liberals are unfit to manage the post-pandemic recovery, and 2021 will see the Tories roll out their ideas and arguments for why their approach would be better.
Newly minted leader Erin O’Toole — he won the job in August — must become better known to Canadians; while Trudeau spent the lead-up to Christmas doing year-end interviews with major national media outlets, O’Toole’s approach was to avoid most and focus on regional players.
2:28 Conservative Leader O’Toole says he has no confidence in government — but doesn’t want election
Conservative Leader O’Toole says he has no confidence in government — but doesn’t want election – Oct 20, 2020
Expanding the party’s reach beyond its loyal and committed base is the primary challenge for O’Toole.
Doing so requires a delicate dance between ensuring card-carrying members of the party see their demands met and not alienating potential voters.
Those two goals may come to a head at the party’s upcoming virtual convention.
What motions O’Toole supports or ignores there will signal which direction he wants to take the party, especially with groups like the anti-abortion Campaign Life Coalition mobilizing to advance its causes on the convention floor.
The New Democrats
The Liberals have hoovered up NDP ideas like Santa eating cookies on Christmas Eve: pharmacare, paid sick days and the cancellation of interest on student loans are now part of the policy package for the government.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said the government must act on those promises to ensure his party’s ongoing support, but they also have other demands, like increased taxes on the “ultrarich.”
The NDP secured concessions from the Liberals in pandemic-response legislation, but a decision to prop them up in a vote over WE Charity raised some eyebrows.
0:53 NDP leader describes Trudeau’s election threat as outrageous and absurd
NDP leader describes Trudeau’s election threat as outrageous and absurd – Oct 20, 2020
Taking the ethical high ground is a central talking point for the party and painting the Liberals as corrupt friends of the rich is core to the their political strategy.
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Singh says he is guided by doing what’s best for Canadians, but how much runaway he has within his own party to keep propping up the government is unclear.
Also of note: in 2021, the party retires its $10 million debt from the 2019 election, allowing the NDP to focus on refilling its coffers for the next run.
The Bloc Quebecois
While their opponents are in the game to win the country, for the Bloc Quebecois, a minority government where they hold a significant chunk of seats is actually a better outcome as it allows them to wield more power than they would in a majority.
The pandemic has put federal-provincial relations under exceptional strain and this is fertile ground for the Bloc Quebecois to till as they position themselves as the only party truly committed to Quebec’s interests in Parliament.
At a recent year-end press conference, Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet accused the Liberals of using the pandemic to seize and centralize power without a care for the provinces.
0:27 Blanchet suggests he has lost confidence in the Trudeau government
Blanchet suggests he has lost confidence in the Trudeau government – Aug 12, 2020
He also checked off a list of causes dear to Quebec that his party fought for in 2020, including compensation for supply-managed industries and action to force airlines to refund customers who couldn’t travel during the pandemic.
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Expect the Bloc to also press back hard against the Liberals’ plan to institute some kind of national strategy to guide long-term care homes, which Quebec has said is beyond the scope of federal power.
The BQ’s main political rival come 2021 is the Conservative party, which continues to insist it is the best placed to achieve actual change for Quebec. Much like the Liberals, expect the Bloc to focus on knocking down Erin O’Toole where they can.
The Green party
The Greens have appeared poised for an electoral breakthrough for years as Canadians demand more aggressive action on climate change, but it has been a slog to convert national support in the polls to winning seats.
They currently hold three, and but despite best efforts so far, new Green Leader Annamie Paul doesn’t have one.
5:27 Annamie Paul elected as new federal Green Party leader
Annamie Paul elected as new federal Green Party leader – Oct 4, 2020
Increasing her profile is crucial in the coming months, but challenging without a seat in Parliament.
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She’s been working the media circuit and holding regular news conferences, but an election would give her a much-needed boost, especially if she is afforded a seat at nationally televised debates.
The Liberals’ goal to focus on a “green recovery” post-pandemic could see the Greens own approach get renewed attention.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
