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Economy

Out-of-equilibrium economy will keep the Fed 'hostage' to stock market, strategist argues – MarketWatch

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It’s the time of year to look back over the last 12 months, but one strategist reached back to the 19th century to describe what’s going on.

In 1898, Swedish economist Knut Wicksell said equilibrium was only attained if the marginal return on capital is the same as the cost of money, notes Kit Juckes, the London-based head of currency strategy for French bank Société Générale. (Here’s a nice summary of Wicksell’s views, from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.)

Fast-forward a bit, and Juckes points out that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has averaged 6.2% over the last 50 years. During that time period, nominal gross domestic product growth (real GDP growth plus inflation), also has averaged 6.2%.

That is, of course, a far cry from present conditions, where the 10-year yield can’t break 1%, and the economy has been contracting over the last 12 months. And even over the last decade, 10-year yields have been trailing GDP growth.

Juckes nearly summarizes what has happened. “Central banks spent the 1980s getting inflation under control, but the 1990s saw the emergence of downward pressure on CPI [consumer price index] inflation in particular, from a number of sources: baby boomers entered the labor force, the Soviet Union’s collapse massively boosted Europe’s labor force, China’s entry into the world economy changed supply of a host of goods, technology had a similar effect and for good measure, labor unions became far less powerful,” he writes.

After the 2008-09 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic, “interest rates are glued to the floor.” But even as inflation is under control, Juckes says it is obvious economies aren’t in equilibrium, as low interest rates have sent “asset prices into orbit. And while that is lovely for those who own assets, it increases inequality, fuels political division between asset-rich and asset-poor, and leaves the Fed hostage to equity markets because they can’t afford to trigger a correction in indices that would send the U.S. economy back into recession. That gives markets far too much power over policy,” he says.

The next rate hike cycle will peak even lower than the last one — the effective Fed funds rate was 2.4% in 2019 — “because equity valuations will make it so.” Juckes says this disequilibrium will leave the global economy fragile and prone to another crisis.

The buzz

Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca
AZN,
+1.05%

on Wednesday said the coronavirus vaccine it has developed with the University of Oxford has been approved by the U.K. government. The U.S., meanwhile, said the U.K. strain that spreads more quickly has been identified in Colorado. Hospitalizations reached a daily record of 124,686 on Tuesday, according to the COVID-19 tracking project, as California extended its lockdown.

Congressman-elect Luke Letlow, a Louisiana Republican, has died at age 41 from coronavirus.

The fate of both the $2,000-per-person stimulus check, as well as the defense bill previously vetoed by President Donald Trump, is still in question in the U.S. Senate. Analysts expect the upper chamber to kill the additional stimulus-check legislation approved in the House, but the proposal has won support from a handful of Republicans even as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has blocked a vote.

With polls extremely close on the key Senate races in Georgia, President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will separately travel to the Peach State to campaign for the two seats, the Biden press office said. Democrats would take control of the Senate if they win both elections.

The U.K. Parliament is expected to easily clear the trade agreement reached with the European Union.

The markets

After the S&P 500
SPX,
-0.22%

and Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.38%

fell all the way to the second-highest level in history, U.S. stock futures
ES00,
+0.35%

NQ00,
+0.39%

were again pointing upward.

The U.S. dollar
DXY,
-0.29%

fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
0.950%

was 0.95%. Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+2.99%

rose as high as $28,752, a fresh record, according to CoinDesk data.

The tweet

iframe.twitter-tweet
width: 100% !important;

There was a lot of discussion on social media about this CNBC interview with Interactive Brokers
IBKR,
-1.20%

chairman Thomas Peterffy, where he said for the first time in its history, its customers were net short out-of-the-money stock options. “It’s usually about Tesla
TSLA,
+0.35%

and Amazon
AMZN,
+1.16%

and Apple
AAPL,
-1.33%

— that’s where most of the action seems to be. So the Robinhood folks are long these options and Interactive customers are short these options,” said Peterffy. Robinhood is the brokerage that many young investors trade on.

Random reads

A Greek nurse erected his own intensive care unit after not liking the treatment options available when his wife, her parents and her brother got COVID-19.

Archives reveal a comedian’s prank call to test out an impersonation may have saved the government of former U.K. Prime Minister John Major.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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