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All the rage: The pandemic’s emotional politics – European Council on Foreign Relations

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“I’m as mad as hell and I am not going to take this anymore” shouts the TV host and his viewers in Sidney Lumet’s 1976 film “Network”. In this gloomy but visionary picture, Lumet reveals the mechanisms that many mass media outlets and politicians use to spark outrage and radicalisation on a scale that makes it difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.

Prolonged covid-19 lockdowns have created a kaleidoscope of feelings. These emotions have not only an individual character but also an important collective one. In nearly every great account of a past epidemic – from that of Thucydides, to those of Giovanni Boccaccio and Albert Camus – fear, distrust, and uncertainty have been the classic triad of collective emotions. In recent months, however, another emotion seems to have dominated public life. Anger – often in its more radical form, rage – seems likely to be crucial in months to come as a cause of political action and source of gratification.

In recent years, many pundits have tried to shift our attention to the problem of anger in public life. Recently, Pankaj Mishra explored “a particular climate of ideas, a structure of feeling and cognitive disposition, from the age of Rousseau to our own age of anger”. Anger is, however, in the code of Western culture right from its beginning. “Sing, Goddess, sing of the rage of Achilles” begins The Iliad. But it has been a long time since the outbursts of rage in political life were so passionate, so open, and so evenly divided as they are in many countries today.

One can point here to various outbursts of anger, from the Black Lives Matter protests in the United States and the United Kingdom to the demonstrations in defence of women’s rights in Poland, to the recent insurrection at the US Capitol. Though there are stark ideological differences between these movements, they all seem to have been strengthened by the same experience: months of frustration, emptiness, and the loss of the way of life that preceded the coronavirus crisis. It is striking how much members of Congress emphasised anger during their speeches on the second attempt to impeach former president Donald Trump.

An early lesson for 2021 is that the year will be shaped by pandemic anger.

Thus, an early lesson for 2021 is that the year will be shaped by pandemic anger. This may come as a disappointment to many, given their high hopes that this year would be better than 2020. Supporters of President Joe Biden, however, have reasons to feel some relief. Illiberal populists in central and eastern European countries are doing well but, as Cas Mudde and Jakub Wondreys have rightly pointed out, the November US presidential election proved that liberals also could win in times of plague. Some optimists in our country, Poland, have started to hope that Biden’s victory could be the beginning of a wider trend.

Hope

Amid the great wave of hope created by Biden’s victory in the election, those few who commented that Trumpism was not over yet were often dismissed as irritating Cassandras. And this should have come as no surprise. Psychologist Kate Sweeny argues that the main component of relief is a burst of endorphins, a feeling of happiness or even euphoria that the worst is over. It is an important mechanism from an evolutionary point of view, as it allows people to remember emergency situations and to learn how to act so that we avoid them in the future.

However, this mechanism can sometimes cause confusion. In early 2021, it is tempting to believe that the worst is behind us, since Trump lost the election and new hope has emerged in the form of covid-19 vaccines. The history of past pandemics, however, show that such moments of collective euphoria are an inevitable part of the global spread of a disease. After the second wave of the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu pandemic, there were signs of collective relaxation. Influenza came and went, just like smallpox or plague – and, after each wave, there was a lot of hope that it would not return. For example, despite the early successes of smallpox vaccines in nineteenth century Europe, the disease killed another 500,000 people in a last great comeback between 1870 and 1875, sparked by the Franco-Prussian War. This last outbreak came as a shock to many, and the reason for this was that first vaccinations did not necessarily confer lifelong immunity, which was not initially known.

Today, it is becoming increasingly apparent that 2021 will see a continuation of the crisis rather than an end to it. This concerns not only the coronavirus but also emotions in politics. Populists have not lost their ability to communicate with strong collective emotions.

The insurrection at the US Capitol is a good illustration of this. Addressing the public before his social media ban, Trump once again displayed his ability to catch what is happening in the emotional sphere and use it to light a bigger fire. His speeches have been saturated with words expressing sentiments such as distrust, suspicion, and anger, and with shows of understanding and excuses for those who are being radicalised. “We will never give up. We will never concede”; “I know your pain; I know you’re hurt”, he said – in an echo of Lumet’s movie. The next acts of this drama may well unfold in the coming months.

Courage, passion, engagement

The ancient Greeks believed that emotions are not produced in our individual psyches but come from the outside, like irresistible forces. While few people now believe that Athena sends them emotions as she did Achilles, the concept that feelings are invading us like invisible forces is still relevant today. It seems that only the gods have changed. Our emotions often come from social media. They build quickly, discharge, and disappear just as rapidly.

This poses a serious challenge for defenders of liberal democracy in 2021. Liberals are often reluctant to use emotions in politics, but they should recognise that understanding the emotional structure underlying everyday politics can help in creating a convincing political message.

Those who place their hopes in the second impeachment of Trump or another legal barrier to his political movement should ask themselves how exactly this solution should play out. Impeachment as a legal procedure seems a good idea if it preserves the rule of law. Fiery language does not have to invalidate reasonable arguments. However, if legal instruments are used solely to answer to rage with rage, this will not have positive consequences for the political community. Perhaps it is worth seeking some form of reconciliation with at least some of Trump’s supporters, if not with him? It is worth remembering that radical leaders such as illiberal populists use a strategy of radicalisation that can prompt their opponents to become more brutal. Unfortunately, the moderate centre does not usually win such duels. Events in Poland are a good example of this.

These emotional dynamics pose a challenge for the European Union. Deradicalising politics takes time. It requires long-term research, strategies, and procedures – all of which are among the EU’s areas of expertise. But it also requires courage, passion, and engagement. These qualities have been displayed by many leaders who have challenged the established social order, such as feminist activists chaining themselves to lampposts in England in the early decades of the twentieth century, civil rights marchers in the United States in the 1960s, and the peaceful revolutionaries of the Solidarity movement in Poland in the 1980s. If 2021 is to be a good year for the EU, Europeans will need to think about what they can do to bring those virtues to the corridors of institutions in Brussels.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of its individual authors.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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