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The one big reason why the Edmonton Oilers haven't won more games this year – Edmonton Journal

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4 years ago

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Author of the article:

David Staples  •  Edmonton Journal

Publishing date:

Feb 17, 2021  •  9 hours ago  •  5 minute read

Edmonton Oilers goalie Mikko Koskinen, right, of Finland, skates off the ice after being replaced by goalie Mike Smith after allowing a fourth goal to the Calgary Flames, during the second period at Rogers Place on December 27, 2019. Photo by Darryl Dyck /CP

Goaltending has cost the Oilers about three wins this year

There’s one big reason why the Edmonton Oilers haven’t won more games this year, and all the rest is chit chat.

We faithful fans of the team are constantly ablaze over team performance. Debates boil up hourly and long reports come out each day on every decision the coach makes on Oilers forwards and d-men, along with in-depth summaries on the pros and cons of each player.

But when I think about the Oilers record of nine win and eight losses after 17 games, one fact hits me over the head, that it’s goaltending, goaltending, goaltending that has cost the Edmonton Oilers wins this year — and no other factor is close.

Simply put, Edmonton’s goalies have made significantly fewer big saves this year than have the goalies of their opponents.

Opponents are converting on 32.6 of their Grade A chances, while the Oilers are converting on 26.7 per cent of their Grade A chances.

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If I were to put a number of how many wins this has cost the Oilers, I’d say it’s about three wins in 17 games.

The Grade A scoring chances gap

How can I put so much on the Oilers goaltenders? Because in most games the Oilers significantly out chance the opposition, but their won-loss record doesn’t reflect that dominance.

Overall, the Oilers have averaged 13.2 Grade A scoring chances per game but have given up just 10.4 Grade A chances.

That’s a huge positive differential for the Oilers.

That’s a massive gap.

The Oilers have a Grade A Scoring Chances For percentage of 55.9 per cent.

Yet when it comes to scoring goals, Edmonton has scored 3.53 per game but given up 3.41 per game. That’s a Goals For percentage of just 50.9 per cent. Very tight. Very close. Not much of an edge for the Oilers.

Stealing games

Monday’s 6-5 loss to the Winnipeg Jets was the kind of defeat that has been all too common for the Oilers, a game where their goalie(s) were the second best on the ice, even as the Oilers were the more dangerous attacking team.

Starting goalie Mike Smith was beat on four difficult shots, not one of them an easy save to make, but he let in every single one of the difficult shots he faced before he was pulled in the second period. He failed to make those two or three big saves that are often the difference between winning and losing a game.

At the other end, Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck wasn’t perfect, but he came up with the huge saves, such as him blocking a wicked Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ one-timer off a Leon Draisaitl power play feed late in the second period.

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It was the fourth time an opposition goalie stole a win for his team against the Oilers this year in such a game where Edmonton had significantly more Grade A scoring chances.

Meanwhile, in 17 games this year, Oilers goalies have only stolen one game, Smith last week in Edmonton’s 3-2 win over Ottawa.

To understand this in more detail, let’s dig into the three types of games the Oilers have had this year.

3 close games: 1 win, 2 losses.

In these three games, the Oilers had the same number of scoring chances, or were within one scoring chance, as the opposition team. Edmonton lost to Montreal 5-1 in a game where both teams had 14 Grade A chances, they lost to the Leafs 4-3 when the chances were Oilers 14, Leafs 13, and they beat the Senators 4-2 in a game where each team had seven chances.

3 games where opposition had major edge: 1 win, 2 losses

In each of these three games, the opposition had two or more Grade A chances than the Oilers. The Oilers earned one win and two losses in these contests. In Edmonton’s recent 3-2 road win over the Ottawa Senators last week, Smith’s first game back, he stole a win for his team. Ottawa had 13 Grade A chances that game, the Oilers only nine. The Oilers lost the other two games 6-4 to the Jets and 3-1 to the Habs.

11 games where Oilers had major edge: 7 wins, 4 losses

I would expect the Oilers to win most of these games. And in the 11 games where the Oilers outchanced the opposition by two or more Grade A scoring chances, the Oilers have seven wins and four losses. That’s a great record but it’s about what you’d expect from a team that has a significant edge in Grade A scoring chances. Perhaps the more notable and troubling aspect is that in four games where the Oilers had that significant shooting edge, they still lost.

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Those games were: the first game of the year, a 5-3 loss to Vancouver, where the Oilers outchanced the Canucks 19 to 17; the sixth game, where the Oilers outchanced the Leafs 17 to 10 but lost 4-2; in game thirteen, with the Oilers outchancing the Flames 16 to 14 but losing 6-4; and in the 17th game against Winnipeg on Monday, where Edmonton had 15 Grade A chances to 10 for the Jets, but lost 6 to 5.

In those four games, opposition goalies Braden Holtby, Frederik Andersen, Jacob Markstrom and Connor Hellebuyck arguably stole games. In total, the Oilers had 67 Grade A chances and 14 goals, while the opposing teams had 51 chances and 21 goals.

The good news?

If there’s any good news it’s that Mikko Koskinen was much better last season, and can maybe be expected to return to form with Smith’s return, now that Koskinen isn’t forced to play almost every game.

Smith is also off to a hot start, even with his iffy performance against Winnipeg. Koskinen can get his save percentage to move north of .900, the Oilers should make the playoffs, given the otherwise strong performance of the team.

Recently at the Cult of Hockey

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Jays reliever Green and Canadian slugger O’Neill nominated for comeback player award

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9 hours ago

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October 21, 2024

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NEW YORK – Toronto Blue Jays reliever Chad Green and Canadian slugger Tyler O’Neill of the Boston Red Sox were named finalists for the Major League Baseball Players’ Association’s American League comeback player award on Monday.

Chicago White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet was the other nominee.

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. were named player of the year finalists.

The award winners, selected via player voting, will be named Saturday before Game 2 of the World Series.

Green, who missed most of the 2022 and ’23 seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery, was a high-leverage option for the Blue Jays this past season and filled in at closer over the second half of the campaign.

The right-hander converted his first 16 save opportunities and finished the year with a 4-6 record, 17 saves and a 3.21 earned-run average over 53 appearances.

O’Neill, a native of Burnaby, B.C., also endured back-to-back injury-plagued seasons in ’22 and ’23.

After being traded to the Red Sox in the off-season, O’Neill set an MLB record by hitting a homer in his fifth straight Opening Day. He finished with 31 homers on the year and had an OPS of .847.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Duke’s Cooper Flagg makes preseason AP All-America team as ACC, Big 12, SEC each place 2 players

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11 hours ago

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October 21, 2024

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Alabama’s Mark Sears and North Carolina‘s RJ Davis looked into the possibility of leaving for the NBA before deciding to return for another college season.

Their decisions helped their teams earn top-10 rankings in the AP Top 25 and earned both players some preseason honors, too.

Sears was a near-unanimous selection for The Associated Press preseason All-America men’s basketball team released Monday, earning all but one vote from a 55-person national media panel. Davis was right behind him, nabbing 51 votes.

They were joined by Kansas big man Hunter Dickinson, Auburn forward Johni Broome, Arizona guard Caleb Love and Duke freshman Cooper Flagg. Love and Flagg tied for the final spot, creating a six-man team that includes only the ACC, Big 12 and SEC.

Alabama twin bill

Sears was a key cog in the Crimson Tide’s first trip to the Final Four a year ago, orchestrating one of college basketball’s highest-scoring teams.

The 6-foot-1 guard was named a second-team AP All-America after averaging 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists. He was the first Division I player in 31 years to have 795 points, 150 rebounds, 145 assists and 95 three-pointers in a single season while breaking the Alabama single-season record with 26 games with at least 20 points.

Sears worked out for NBA scouts during the offseason before deciding to return to Alabama, earning the Crimson Tide a No. 2 ranking in the preseason AP Top 25.

“I saw the team that we had and I wanted to be a part of it, and bring home Alabama’s first national championship in basketball,” Sears said.

Across the state at rival Auburn, Broome made a quick decision about his future, announcing in April that he would be back for a fifth season.

The 6-10 forward was a third-team AP All-American last season after averaging 16.5 points and 8.5 rebounds while shooting nearly 55% from the floor. With an eye on an NBA future, Broome worked hard on his perimeter shooting during the offseason and his return earned Auburn a No. 11 preseason ranking.

“My main goal is a team goal, which is to win the national championship, to make it as far as I can in March Madness,” Broome said. “When a team shines, everyone shines individually.”

Along Tobacco Road

Like Sears, Davis has similar aspirations after opting to return for his fifth season at North Carolina.

The 6-foot guard was an AP All-American last season and the ACC player of the year after averaging 21.1 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists on a team that reached the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Davis enters this year within reach of former North Carolina big man Tyler Hansbrough’s all-time ACC scoring record.

“I know there’s more work to be done,” Davis said. “I know my jersey’s not going up until I leave. So there’s some more records to break and some more work to be done. I’m satisfied but I’m not satisfied, if that makes sense.”

Up the road at Duke, Flagg was the only underclassman on the preseason All-America team after arriving with tons of hype. The 6-9 swingman was the No. 1-rated high school recruit out of Newport, Maine and has been projected as the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft.

Flagg has the skills of a guard, but can also play inside and has worked hard on his perimeter shooting, giving him the potential to be one of college basketball’s most versatile players. He’s part of a stellar recruiting class that has No. 7 Duke eyeing a deep March run.

Big 12 duo

Dickinson was the biggest move in the transfer portal last spring after leaving Michigan for Kansas. The 7-2 center lived up to the billing, averaging 17.9 points and 10.9 rebounds while leading the Jayhawks back to the NCAA Tournament.

With Dickinson’s return and an influx of talented transfers, Kansas is ranked No. 1 going into the season that begins Nov. 4.

Love’s decision to return for a second season at No. 10 Arizona has ratcheted up expectations in the desert for the Big 12 rival of Kansas.

The athletic 6-4 guard had a high-scoring career at North Carolina and continued it after transferring to Arizona last season. He was the Pac-12 player of the year and a third-team All-American after averaging 18 points per game and making 92 3-pointers.

Love tested the NBA waters this summer before deciding to return.

“He’s had a very successful college career thus far,” Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd said. “He’s kind of this last generation of player that’s going to get better with this extra year, and so I just encourage him to take advantage of it.”

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Browns QB Deshaun Watson ruptured his Achilles tendon and is out for the season, AP source says

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11 hours ago

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October 21, 2024

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CLEVELAND (AP) — Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson will miss the rest of Cleveland‘s season after rupturing his right Achilles tendon on Sunday against Cincinnati, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press on Monday.

Watson was injured on a non-contact play in the second quarter of Cleveland’s 21-14 loss to the Bengals.

Watson will soon undergo surgery, said the person who spoke on condition of anonymity because the team has not announced the results of imaging tests taken on his leg.

It’s the second significant injury in two seasons for Watson, who broke the glenoid (socket) bone in his throwing shoulder last year.

The 29-year-old Watson went down without being touched on a draw play late in the first half. His right leg buckled and Watson collapsed to the turf. TV replays showed his calf rippling, consistent with an Achilles injury.

As he laid on the ground, there was cheering by some Cleveland fans, leading to some of Watson’s teammates criticizing that behavior during the team’s fifth straight loss.

The injury is yet another twist in Watson’s divisive stay with the Browns.

Cleveland traded three first-round draft picks to Houston and signed him to a fully guaranteed $230 million in 2022. The deal came amid Watson being accused by more than two dozen women of sexual assault and harassment during massage therapy sessions. He settled civil lawsuits in all but one of those cases.

Watson was suspended by the NFL for his first 11 games with the Browns and then made just six starts last season before hurting his shoulder.

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