Looking at the National Hockey League standings, the first thing you notice is the Toronto Maple Leafs sitting in pole position. But is it real?
The answer is yes. In my seven years at TSN, that was the easiest piece I’ve written to date!
Now for a more interesting question along those same lines. Some recent discussion has centered on whether the Maple Leafs have merely been reaping the benefits of forced temporary realignment and an apparently weaker division, or are a genuinely improved team that is putting daylight between themselves and other playoff contenders.
One roadblock in answering that question is the fact that the divisions are locked, meaning no interdivisional play this season. Stare at the standings long enough, and you could convince yourself that both answers are correct.
But we can try to quantify what impact the divisional restructuring has had on performance, mostly because the intervening off-season was unlike any other.
Normal off-seasons generally involve significant player movement and organizational changes, so year-to-year changes in performance are anticipated. But this off-season was eerily quiet, in large part due to an unexpectedly flat salary cap. Outside of a couple of teams (the Montreal Canadiens for example) who had the luxury to spend, most were forced to tweak their rosters at the margins and run it back.
It’s also not lost on me that even after 20 or so games, most of the playoff teams from the prior season are in position to become playoff teams once again. Consider the current standings and note the teams occupying the top four slots of each division:
You can find a couple examples of teams on the rise, like the Florida Panthers. You can also spot a team like the Nashville Predators off to slower-than-expected starts. But for the most part, the broader spectrum of playoff-calibre teams hasn’t changed much, and most teams are reasonably in line with their prior year’s expectations. Consequently, the year-over-year correlation in net goals (and, consequently, wins and losses) is quite high.
The one thing we do know is that every single team in the NHL has a dramatically different schedule this season. In order to tease out the relative effect of these scheduling changes, we need to measure this year’s observations against our understanding of team talent level from the end of last season. Let’s create a quick analysis accordingly.
Here, we will do three things:
1. Consider each team’s net-goal advantage/disadvantage from the 2019-20 season (and associated widespread schedule) as a proxy for team talent.
2. Iterate a team’s schedule against what should have been their 2020-21 opponents.
3. Analyze the shifts in performance at a team and divisional level.
Do this exercise across every team in the league, and you can see how a team’s divisional opponents in a normal year have behaved through the environment changes:
What do these numbers indicate? Let’s look at the Predators for a moment, who have the most extreme example of the 31 teams.
Last season, Nashville – who would have just made the playoff cut in a competitive Central Division – saw an opponent that was +0.21 goals per-game better than a league-average opponent, indicating a reasonably strong division. This season, that number is up to +0.45 goals per game, the highest number in the league. Why is this the case?
The short answer is that their normal divisional foes – some of which stayed in the Central, others of which left for new divisions – have all played rather well in their new groupings.
The opposite of the Nashville situation might be the Vegas Golden Knights, as their normal Pacific opponents have had better years.
The teams that stayed in the Pacific now get to enjoy facing teams like St. Louis and Colorado on a regular basis, and the teams that left – emphasis on Vancouver and Calgary here – have had relatively rough starts in the North Division. That may suggest the Golden Knights have had a softer division of sorts last season, and a more difficult division to navigate this season.
There is also a funny note about what’s happened with the Central Division. The Central was the strongest division a season ago, and the new Central looks like it will retain that belt. What happened was relatively simple: the division displaced strong playoff-calibre clubs (Colorado, Minnesota, and St. Louis all headed to the West, for example) and received other strong playoff-calibre clubs (Tampa Bay, Columbus, and an improved Florida team) in a clean trade-off.
Let’s bring this back to the Maple Leafs.
Toronto, you will notice, has relatively flat year-over-year numbers – their Atlantic Division foes faring about as well this year as they did last year. Intuitively this makes sense. What was very obvious about the Atlantic Division one season ago is that there were two teams that posed lethally tough matchups, and three teams who were also-rans.
This year, barring something dramatic, Toronto will be a favourite in just about every game going forward. But just as their games against the league’s elite have disappeared, so too have the games against the minnows of the NHL. It puts them in prime position to chase down the North Division title, but it does not put them in a comfortable position of generating game experience against Cup contenders.
Data via NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference
TORONTO – Reigning PWHL MVP and scoring champ Natalie Spooner will miss the start of the regular season for the Toronto Sceptres, general manager Gina Kingsbury announced Tuesday on the first day of training camp.
The 33-year-old Spooner had knee surgery on her left anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after she was checked into the boards by Minnesota’s Grace Zumwinkle in Game 3 of their best-of-five semifinal series on May 13.
She had a goal and an assist in three playoff games but did not finish the series. Toronto was up 2-1 in the semifinal at that time and eventually fell 3-2 in the series.
Spooner led the PWHL with 27 points in 24 games. Her 20 goals, including five game-winners, were nine more than the closest skater.
Kingsbury said there is no timeline, as the team wants the Toronto native at 100 per cent, but added that “she is doing really well” in her recovery.
The Sceptres open the PWHL season on Nov. 30 when they host the Boston Fleet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.
LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.
“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”
Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.
The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.
Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.
“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”
Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.
“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”
The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.
“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”
Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.
“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.
Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.
The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.
The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.
Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.
Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
