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A Stock Investment That Has It All: Constrained Supply, High Demand And A Looming Shortage Of Unknown Proportions – Forbes

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The Wall Street Journal (“Heard on the Street”) describes the situation and prospects perfectly in “Natural-Gas Market Conditions Look Unnatural“:

  • Supply is struggling to catch up to high global demand
  • Inventories needed to meet winter demand surge are abnormally low
  • Uncertainties surrounding winter effects are heightened by climate change unknowns

In this situation, “uncertainties” is the investor’s friend. It means the normal rise in winter demand could be abnormally high. Therefore, curing the winter mismatch will be left up to price, as is now being discussed:

Natural gas falls between the social, environmental and political cracks

The desirability rankings are mostly clear:

  • Solar and wind – yes, absolutely
  • Hydroelectric and nuclear – yes, but…
  • Oil – no, but…
  • Coal – no, absolutely

“Clean-burning” natural gas? Yes? After all, it’s where utilities have gone after coal. And then there are all those home furnaces, stoves and water heaters. And what about the “this vehicle is natural gas fueled” environmental movement? Plus, natural gas is a necessary byproduct from oil production; and there are natural underground storage areas; and large investments have been made in LNG facilities; and LNG shipping is a big and expanding business. Most importantly, all of these benefit the U.S. economy.

Therefore, natural gas probably gets an “okay for now” ranking. So, don’t worry about the discussion of Biden stomping on natural gas anytime soon:

Forbes (9/9): “Natural Gas Producers On Roll, Biden Could Be A Roadblock

The bottom line: The potential stock price gain from a natural gas price rise could be large

Commodity price rises can multiply producer earnings and free cash flows significantly. Even a seasonal boost can ratchet up a company’s financial and operational well-being. Most importantly, the increased funds can allow ramping up future growth prospects.

For stock investors, the benefits can be equally large, even before the results are in. It’s the anticipation of events, especially where there is the possibility of a large windfall, that can boost investor excitement and the stock price in advance of actual results.

In other words, now looks to be a good time to invest in natural gas producers.

Disclosure: Author bought First Trust Natural Gas ETF on September 13

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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