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Analysis-Pandemic fatigue a challenge for Canada’s Trudeau amid protests

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s support of vaccine mandates in fighting COVID-19 helped him win re-election five months ago, but now he looks increasingly isolated as restrictions are being lifted around the world.

Denmark, the Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, Norway, Israel, Britain and Spain and most of the United States are easing or lifting COVID restrictions, and most of Canada’s provincial governments are rolling them back, too.

But Trudeau has doubled down on federal vaccine mandates and this week invoked emergency powers to seek an end to weeks of protests against his government’s pandemic restrictions.

Protesters have occupied the core of Ottawa since late January and last week cut off major trade corridors to the United States.

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Trudeau is trying to regain control, but has drawn sharp criticism even from some of his own Liberal Party lawmakers, including Nate Erskine-Smith, who said “divisive rhetoric” should be dropped.

“The challenge for the Prime Minister is that he’s looking dogmatic at not pragmatic,” said independent pollster Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research.

“This protest movement has put a spotlight on him being … divisive, because the fact of the matter is all Canadians are frustrated,” Nanos said, adding it would now be tougher for Trudeau to win another election, whenever it may come.

While most Canadians approve of the mandates and 80% are vaccinated, after two years many are tiring of pandemic restrictions.

During the protests, the majority of the country’s 10 provinces – including Ontario and Quebec – began lifting them, saying they moved because of the rapidly falling COVID-19 case numbers in the past few weeks, rather than due to pressure from demonstrators.

“The world is done with (the pandemic), so let’s just move forward,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said on Tuesday.

Ford said he would lift proof-of-vaccination requirements used by non-essential businesses like restaurants on March 1. A Leger survey from last week said a third of Canadians think now is the time to lift all restrictions.

Trudeau says vaccination remains the best way to get through the pandemic, defending the mandates despite the sharp reduction in cases linked to the Omicron variant.

The Trudeau government’s approval rating fell six percentage points between Jan. 12, before the protests began and Feb. 8, while they were ongoing, an Abacus Data poll said this week.

Last week, one of Trudeau’s own lawmakers, Joel Lightbound, accused the prime minister of being divisive when he embraced vaccine mandates as a wedge issue in last year’s campaign.

“It’s time to stop dividing Canadians, to stop pitting one part of the population against another,” Lightbound said on Feb. 8. “Time to stop with the division and the distractions. It’s time to choose positive, not coercive methods.”

A handful of backbench legislators, including Erskine-Smith, have since expressed support for some of Lightbound’s views. While Lightbound resigned as Quebec caucus chair, he remains a Liberal lawmaker.

Trudeau “has got a political emergency with his own caucus, in his own party”, said Candice Bergen, leader of the Conservative Party, on Wednesday. She took over as leader of the opposition Conservative Party after her predecessor was ousted earlier this month for not fully embracing the protests.

The Liberals say the recent election makes it clear what Canadians want.

“We campaigned on vaccine mandates, and parties that supported vaccine mandates got the majority in the house. And that’s why we were able to do them as soon as we got elected,” said a senior Liberal Party source when asked about the criticism from within the party.

The vaccine mandate for federal workers introduced after the election has brought the vaccination rate among federal employees to 98.2%. One for cross-border truckers that started in January and sparked the ongoing protests has helped bring the vaccination rate to 90% among international drivers.

When Trudeau this week invoked emergency powers to put an end to the protests, he recognized that there was a split in public sentiment.

“I know people are frustrated. I hear it … But blockading streets and critical infrastructure and depriving your neighbors of their freedoms” is not the right way to protest, he said.

 

(Reporting by Steve Scherer; additional reporting by Nia Williams in Calgary; Editing by Diane Craft)

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Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people: Here's where they all came from – CBC.ca

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Alberta smashed population-growth records in the past year, mainly due to people moving to the province from across Canada and around the world.

The province’s population surged to just over 4.8 million as of Jan. 1, according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier, which marks — by far — the largest annual increase on record.

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Alberta also broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.

“This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” Statistics Canada said in a release.


Most of the interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia.

Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.


All told, interprovincial migration accounted for 27 per cent of Alberta’s population growth over the past year.

That put it just ahead of permanent immigration, which accounted for 26 per cent, and well ahead of natural population increase (more births than deaths), which accounted for eight per cent.

The largest component, however, was temporary international migration.

Non-permanent residents from other countries accounted for 39 per cent of the province’s population growth in the past year, reflecting a national trend.


Canada’s population reached 40,769,890 on Jan. 1, according to Statistics Canada estimates, which is up 3.2 per cent from a year ago.

“Most of Canada’s 3.2-per-cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration in 2023,” Statistics Canada noted.

“Without temporary immigration, that is, relying solely on permanent immigration and natural increase (births minus deaths), Canada’s population growth would have been almost three times less (1.2 per cent).”

Alberta’s population, meanwhile, grew by 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta now represents 11.8 per cent of the country’s population, its largest proportion on record. 

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Why Canada's record population growth is helping – and hurting – the economy – CTV News

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Canada has recorded the fastest population growth in 66 years, increasing by 1.3 million people, or 3.2 per cent, in 2023, according to a new report from Statistics Canada.

The country has not seen such growth since 1957, when the spike was attributed to the baby boom and an influx of immigrants fleeing Hungary.

The vast majority of Canada’s growth last year was due to immigration, with temporary residents — which includes foreign workers and international students — making up the largest proportion of newcomers.

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“We need people coming to Canada to help with our economy,” says Matti Siemiatycki, a professor of planning at the University of Toronto. “There are many jobs and professions where there are vacancies, and that is having an impact, whether in the healthcare sector or trades and construction sector.”

Siemiatycki adds immigrants also bring “ingenuity… resources… and culture” to Canada.

Newcomers are relied on to help keep pace with Canada’s aging population and declining fertility rates, but the influx also presents a challenge for a country struggling to build the homes and infrastructure needed for immigrants.

“It’s an incredibly large shock for the economic system to absorb because of just the sheer number of people coming into the country in a short period of time,” says Robert Kavcic. a senior economist and director with BMO Capital Markets.

“The reality is population can grow extremely fast, but the supply side of the economy like housing and service infrastructure, think health care and schools, can only catch up at a really gradual pace,” Kavcic says. “So there is a mismatch right now.”

The impact of that mismatch can most acutely be seen in the cost of rent, services and housing.

In December, Kavcic wrote in a note that Canada needs to build 170,000 new housing units every three months to keep up with population growth, noting the industry is struggling to complete 220,000 units in a full year.

To address this, Ottawa has announced plans to cap the number of new temporary residents while also reducing the number of international student visas, a move economists say could offer some relief when it comes to housing and the cost of living.

“The arithmetic on the caps actual works relatively well because it would take us back down to 1 per cent population growth which we have been used to over the last decade and which is more or less absorbable by the economy,” Kavcic says. “The question is whether or not we see policy makers follow through and hit those numbers.”

Economists believe these changes could help ease inflationary pressures and may make a Bank of Canada rate cut more likely, but could also lead to slower GDP growth.

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Canada’s population hits 41M months after breaking 40M threshold – Global News

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Nine months after reaching a population of 40 million, Canada has cracked a new threshold.

As of Wednesday morning, it’s estimated 41 million people now call the country home, according to Statistics Canada’s live population tracker.

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The speed at which Canada’s population is growing was also reflected in new data released Wednesday by the federal agency: between Jan. 1 2023 and Jan. 1 2024, Canada added 1,271,872 inhabitants, a 3.2 per cent growth rate — the highest since 1957.

Most of Canada’s 3.2 per cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration. Without it, Canada’s population growth would have been 1.2 per cent, Statistics Canada said.


Click to play video: 'Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population'

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Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population


From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023, Canada’s population increased by 241,494 people (0.6 per cent), the highest rate of growth in a fourth quarter since 1956.

Usha George, a professor at the Toronto Metropolitan Centre for Immigration and Settlement at Toronto Metropolitan University, told Global News in June a booming population can benefit the economy.

“It is not the bodies we are bringing in; these are bodies that fill in the empty spaces in the labour market,” she said.

“They bring a very-high level of skills.”


Click to play video: 'Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan'

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Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan


However, Ottawa has recently sought to ease the flow of temporary immigration in a bid to ease cost-of-living woes.


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Immigration Minister Marc Miller said on March 21 Ottawa would set targets for temporary residents allowed into Canada to ensure “sustainable” growth in the number of temporary residents entering the nation.

The next day, BMO economist Robert Kavcic in a note to clients the new limits will have a positive impact on Canada’s rental market and overall housing crisis.

“We’ve been firm in our argument that Canada has had an excess demand problem in housing, and this is maybe the clearest example,” Kavcic said.

“Non-permanent resident inflows, on net, have swelled to about 800K in the latest year, with few checks and balances in place, putting tremendous stress on housing supply and infrastructure.”

Alberta gains, Ontario loses: A look at Canadian migration in 2023

If Alberta is truly calling, then it appears more Canadians are choosing to answer.

Putting the pun on the provincial government’s attraction campaign aside, Canada’s wild rose country saw the largest net gain in interprovincial migration in 2023, Statistics Canada said in Wednesday’s report.


Click to play video: 'Is Alberta ready for population growth?'

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Is Alberta ready for population growth?


The agency said 55,107 Canadians moved to Alberta last year, which was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data become available in 1972.

“Alberta has been recording gains in population from interprovincial migration since 2022, a reverse of the trend seen from 2016 to 2021, when more people left the province than arrived from other parts of Canada,” Statistics Canada said.

“Approximately 333,000 Canadians moved from one province or territory to another in 2023, the second-highest number recorded since the 1990s and the third straight year that interprovincial migration topped 300,000.”

Meanwhile, British Columbia had 8,624 more residents move out than in in 2023, meaning net interprovincial migration was negative for the first time since 2012, Statistics Canada said.

In general, the largest migration flows for British Columbia and Alberta are with each other, and most of the net loss from British Columbia in 2023 was to Alberta, it added.


Click to play video: '‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population'

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‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population


It also seems that good things may no longer be growing in Ontario; Canada’s most populous province lost 36,197 people to other regions in 2023, the biggest regional loss in 2023, Statistics Canada said.

That followed a loss of 38,816 people in 2022; the only other times a province has lost more than 35,000 people due to migration to other parts of Canada occurred in Quebec in 1977 and 1978.

Alberta aside, net interprovincial migration was also up in Nova Scotia (+6,169 people), New Brunswick (+4,790) and Prince Edward Island (+818), although all three Maritime provinces gained fewer interprovincial migrants in 2023 than in the two previous years, Statistics Canada said.

— with files from Uday Rana and Sean Previl

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