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Another Wave Of COVID Could Dampen Oil Demand – OilPrice.com

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Another Wave Of COVID Could Dampen Oil Demand | OilPrice.com


Irina Slav

Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

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The latest resurgence of the coronavirus that last year virtually shut down most of the world has considerably clouded the previously bright outlook for crude oil demand, driving prices down at the start of the week and capping gains made earlier today.

The latest Covid-19 wave prompted movement restrictions in China plus the partial closure of some of the world’s busiest ports there, which also happen to be major oil hubs. This has cast a shadow on the immediate prospect for demand from the world’s top importer. Meanwhile, infection numbers are soaring in the world’s top consumer, the United States, adding fuel to demand worries.

Hedge fund behavior confirms the bearishness. Reuters’ John Kemp reported that hedge funds were net sellers of oil futures last week, making it the sixth of the last eight weeks with net sales in the six most traded futures contracts. For the week, funds sold the equivalent of 64 million barrels of crude. For the six-week stretch, sales equaled 213 million barrels, with most of this in crude oil—183 million barrels—and the remainder in fuels.

At the same time, bargain hunters have emerged, adding upward pressure to oil benchmarks, Reuters reported earlier today. This was accompanied by expectations that OPEC+ would not be adding more barrels to its production anytime soon, despite calls from the U.S. to that effect.

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Indeed unnamed sources from the extended cartel told Reuters on Monday that OPEC+ felt no need to boost production by more than it had already agreed, which was 400,000 bpd from this month onwards until pre-pandemic production levels are reached.

The sources noted OPEC+ members did not expect a shortfall of supply with the scheduled output additions, especially in light of the latest fundamentals data from both OPEC itself and the International Energy Agency. Indeed, the IEA said last week the latest surge in Covid-19 infections had hit the brakes on oil demand recovery and was reversing its direction.

“Global oil demand surged by 3.8 mb/d month-on-month in June, led by increased mobility in North America and Europe,” the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report. “However, demand growth abruptly reversed course in July and the outlook for the remainder of 2021 has been downgraded due to the worsening progression of the pandemic and revisions to historical data.”

Adding further pressure on prices was the Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report, released Monday. The report showed the EIA expected U.S. shale oil production to inch closer to 8.1 million bpd next month, which would be the highest since May last year. Although the monthly increase from August would be just 45,000 bpd, any increase right now would be coming at the wrong time.

On the flip side, at least according to IEA data, global oil stocks have been draining, with OECD stocks 131 million barrels below the five-year average as of June. While this could lend some support to oil bulls, the outlook for 2022 is for a surplus and although IEA forecasts as any other forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt, the combination of OPEC+ output additions and rising Covid-19 case numbers is hardly bullish.

Be that as it may, trends from earlier this year showed just how quickly and strongly oil demand can recover on a global scale. The rebound was so strong it devastated forecasts for a prolonged oil price depression and quickly had analysts talking about Brent at $80 a barrel. This suggests it could happen again once cases start going down. In the meantime, the upward potential of benchmarks would likely remain constrained, even with the newly elevated geopolitical risk in the Middle East following Afghanistan’s takeover by the Taliban.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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​Rogers, Shaw formalize planned Freedom sale to Quebecor – BNN Bloomberg

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Rogers Communications Inc., Shaw Communications Inc. and Quebecor Inc. announced Friday they reached a definitive agreement for the previously-announced proposed sale of Shaw’s Freedom Mobile wireless business.
 
The three companies said that the terms of the definitive pact are “substantially consistent” with their original announcement on June 17, when they said Montreal-based Quebecor agreed to pay $2.85 billion to purchase Freedom. Originally, July 15 was the target to reach the definitive agreement.  

“We are very pleased with this agreement, and we are determined to continue building on Freedom’s assets,” said Quebecor president and chief executive officer Pierre Karl Péladeau in a release Friday. “Quebecor has shown that it is the best player to create real competition and disrupt the market.”
 
The transaction is conditional on Rogers receiving final regulatory approvals for its planned $20-billion takeover of Shaw, which was announced in March 2021.
 
The road to regulatory approval has become more treacherous for Rogers after Competition Commissioner Matthew Boswell stated his objections to the plan, warning it would diminish competition in the telecom market, notwithstanding Rogers’ long-stated intent to divest Freedom Mobile.
 
Rogers’ legal counsel has argued vociferously against Boswell’s claims, saying in a June 3 filing with the Competition Tribunal that Boswell’s stance “is unreasonable, contrary to both the economic and fact evidence presented to the Bureau, and not supportable at law.”
 
The Competition Tribunal is currently scheduled to begin a hearing on the matter Nov. 7.
 
Rogers also has to clear another regulatory hurdle: its planned acquisition of Shaw requires approval from Innovation, Science and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who has previously said he won’t allow the wholesale transfer of Shaw’s wireless assets to Rogers.
 
The process became more complicated for Rogers after a national network outage knocked out service to its customers in early July.

Champagne subsequently said the outage would “certainly be in [his] mind” when weighing the merit of the Shaw sale.
 
For its part, the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Communications announced its conditional approval of the transaction in March.
 
Shaw investors have consistently demonstrated skepticism that the deal will go ahead as planned, as evidenced by its shares never once attaining the $40.50-per-share takeover offer from Rogers since the takeover was announced last year.

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Investors refuse to accept higher rates are here to stay – and that's a problem for financial markets – The Globe and Mail

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, on Aug. 10.Seth Wenig/The Associated Press

With interest rates rising, and rapidly so, the driving force that dictated decision making in financial markets for the past fifteen years is dying out. In a flash, disoriented investors have been exposed to a new world, one that demands dramatically different expectations for what constitutes a decent return.

Yet for all that’s changed, it can be tough to accept the era of ever-lower rates is truly over. Deep down there may be a tacit acknowledgment of changing winds, but it is often coupled with denial about what this all means.

The hope, it seems, is that the damage has already been done. Technology stocks have been clobbered, and house prices have finally started falling in Canada. But the undertow generated by rising rates is hard to contain, and for that reason it will likely ripple through financial markets, hitting everything from private equity to blue-chip stocks.

Such a sea change can be hard to grasp. Since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, investors of all stripes have grown accustomed to ever-falling interest rates. By July, 2020, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for financial markets, had dropped to a paltry 0.52 per cent.

The trend was so absurd, such a deviation from historical norms, that it even spawned a new mantra: “lower for longer.” Investors learned to accept that rates would stay low for longer than once thought imaginable – and it lasted for so long that it became the norm.

And now, in just seven months, it’s all changed, after scorching inflation and geopolitical earthquakes forced a paradigm shift. In July, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by a full percentage point, something not seen since 1998. The Federal Reserve hiked its own by 0.75 percentage points a few weeks later.

The reaction since has been quite bizarre. The Nasdaq Composite index for one, a barometer for growth stocks, is up 23 per cent from its June low. Investors seem to think the worst is behind us, and they’re happy to return to the way things were.

The reality: It is highly likely that there is no going back, at least not for quite some time.

“Many economists, strategists and investors are thinking the world hasn’t changed – that we’re in a normal cycle,” said Tom Galvin, chief investment officer at City National Rochdale, a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada with roughly US$50-billion in assets under management. He disagrees. “We are in a new era.”

This summer, Mr. Galvin put out a paper that spelled this all out, explaining why the new mantra must be ‘higher for longer.’

“Inflation will be higher for longer than we anticipated, interest rates will be higher for longer, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty will be higher for longer and high volatility in the economy and financial markets will be higher for longer,” he wrote.

Of course, Mr. Galvin is only one voice, and everything in economics and finance is so chaotic right now that it’s near impossible to call anything with 100 per cent certainty. In Canada, inflation is at its highest level in nearly 40 years, yet unemployment is at a record low. That isn’t supposed to happen.

But in the past two weeks a spate of Federal Reserve officials have given public interviews saying much the same.

The day after stock markets rallied this week on the back of news that month-over-month U.S. inflation was flat in July, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve, told the Financial Times that investors shouldn’t be so giddy. While the data was encouraging, core prices, a basket that strips out volatile items such as energy costs, still rose. “This is why we don’t want to declare victory on inflation coming down,” she said. “We’re not near done yet.”

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, can’t quite understand why investors are forgetting what scares the Fed the most: inflation. One of the central bank’s biggest failures in the past 50 years was allowing U.S. inflation to grow out of control – or ‘entrenched,’ in economics parlance – in the 1970s, forcing the Fed to eventually take drastic action to bring it back in line.

“This is a Fed that remembers the seventies,” Ms. Swonk said. “Most people operating in financial markets don’t.” Especially not the twenty- and thirty-something retail traders who sent stock markets soaring in 2021.

Fed officials can’t say outright they’ll tolerate a recession as a trade off for squashing inflation, but the eighties is proof they have and they will. “They’re going to raise rates and hold it for a while to grind inflation down,” Ms. Swonk predicts.

Despite the history, there is still speculation in certain corners of the financial markets that the Fed will change course. And there are some recent precedents of doing so. Twice over the past decade, the Fed and the Bank of Canada signalled they were ready to take action to cool the economy, but both times the central banks ultimately backed off. They did so first in 2013, after bond investors freaked out, and then again in 2019.

The big difference between now and then is inflation. Even Mike Novogratz, one of the most popular investors in cryptocurrencies, the mother of all speculative assets, warned in the spring that rates won’t be falling any time soon. “There is no cavalry coming to drive a V-shaped recovery,” he wrote in a letter to investors after the crypto market crashed, referencing the quick stock market rebound after the pandemic first hit. “The Fed can’t ‘save’ the market until inflation falls.”

Predicting precisely how financial markets will be impacted by higher rates is hard, but just like unprofitable technology stocks, the asset classes that benefitted the most from the low rate world are those most susceptible to tremors. Private equity and private credit, to name two, are near the top of the list.

When debt was ultra cheap, private equity funds could fund their buyouts for next to nothing. At the same time, passive investing was gathering steam, taking the shine off hedge funds and mutual funds. Private equity, then, became a vehicle for outsized returns.

Earlier this year, Harvard Business School professor Victoria Ivashina wrote a paper predicting a shake out in the sector, arguing that these tailwinds aren’t there anymore. “As the flow of funds into private equity stabilizes and as the industry growth slows down, the fee structure will compress and compensation will shift to be more contingent on performance,” she wrote.

Already there are signs that major investors are moving away from private equity. Earlier this month, John Graham, chief executive of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, one of the world’s largest institutional investors, disclosed that CPPIB saw more value in public markets than private ones for now. And in a July report, Jefferies, an investment bank, wrote that major money managers, including pension and sovereign wealth funds, had sold US$33-billion worth of stakes in buyout and venture capital funds in the first half of the year, the most on record.

Private debt funds, which lend money to higher risk borrowers, are also vulnerable in the current environment. Money poured into the sector over the past five years because these investment vehicles tend to pay 8-per-cent yields, but that return looks much less rosy now that one-year guaranteed investment certificates pay nearly 4.5 per cent.

By no means are these asset classes dead in the water. The same goes with stocks and so many others. Rates have jumped, and quickly, but they are still low by historical standards.

However, there are many reasons why investors of all stripes should not be expecting a quick return to lower for longer. The latest inflation data is encouraging, but it’s a single data point. Who knows what type of energy crisis Europe and the United Kingdom will face this winter, and what that will do to oil and gas prices.

Inflation also isn’t known to disappear quickly. “It’s easy to get from 6-per-cent core inflation to 4 per cent,” Ms. Swonk, the economist, said. “It’s really hard to get from 4 per cent to 2 per cent.”

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz coming to Canada to meet with Trudeau, business leaders

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OTTAWA — The Prime Minister’s Office says Justin Trudeau will accompany the chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, on a brief Canadian visit later this month that will include stops in Montréal, Toronto and Stephenville in western Newfoundland.

In a statement released Saturday, the PMO confirmed the Aug. 21-23 visit starts in Montreal, where meetings will be held with German and Canadian business leaders, and a tour is scheduled at an artificial intelligence institute.

The two men will then head to Toronto, where Trudeau will take part in the virtual summit about Russia’s annexation of Crimea, followed by an appearance at the Canada-Germany Business Forum.

The trip will conclude with a stop in Stephenville, N.L., where Trudeau and Scholz will attend a hydrogen trade show.

The statement says the two men intend to talk about clean energy, critical minerals, the automotive sector, energy security, climate change, trade and Russia’s “illegal and unjustifiable invasion” of Ukraine.

The prime minister and chancellor last met in June at the G7 Summit in Germany.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 13, 2022.

 

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