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As Bank of Canada turns hawkish, investors retool for higher rates outlook

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Bank of Canada expecting strong growth

TORONTO (Reuters) – Investors in Canada are shunning interest-rate sensitive stocks, seeking inflation protection and betting on a steeper yield curve as the Bank of Canada leads global central banks in shifting to a more hawkish stance.

Canada‘s central bank on Wednesday signaled it could hike interest rates as soon as next year and cut the pace of bond purchases, becoming one of the first major central banks to reduce stimulus.

Investors say they have been adjusting portfolios for some time to prepare for a higher rates outlook, but the BoC’s move has reinforced the focus on such an outcome.

“The fact that the Bank of Canada is now starting to take the foot off the gas… it is the first sign of what’s going to happen and be the big story for the second half of the year,” said Greg Taylor, a portfolio manager at Purpose Investments.

Taylor expects other central banks to follow the Bank of Canada‘s lead, making it more difficult for stock markets to rise later in 2021. Higher rates reduce the value of the future cash flows equities produce.

AGF Investments portfolio manager Mike Archibald is overweight technology shares and cyclicals, such as industrials and consumer discretionary, while underweight defensive sectors, including telecommunications, consumer staples and utilities.

“I am underweight (defensives) both on the expectation of better growth in the next 6-12 months as well as higher yields over time,” Archibald said.

Rising bond yields crimp the appeal of the high dividends defensive stocks tend to pay.

The Bank of Canada expects Canada‘s economy to grow 6.5% in 2021 and inflation to move over the coming months to the top of its 1% to 3% target range.

With inflation expectations rising, buying commodities could benefit a portfolio, said Michael White, a portfolio manager at Picton Mahoney Asset Management.

“Things like industrial metals and energy… you get the benefit of positive performance when economies are generally growing but they are also sensitive to inflation,” he said.

A more hawkish Bank of Canada has bolstered the Canadian dollar CAD=, and James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London is among investors who bought the currency on Wednesday, when it touched a one-month high at 1.2455 per U.S. dollar, or 80.29 U.S. cents.

He has also been betting that Canada‘s long-term yields will rise more than short-term yields, or that the curve will steepen.

That trade remains appropriate “as reducing asset purchases will happen a lot sooner and more easily than moving to tightening via higher rates,” Athey said.

The proposal in Monday’s federal budget to raise the share of long-term bond issuance to 42% from 15% before the crisis could also lead to a steeper curve, said Earl Davis, head of fixed income and money markets at BMO Global Asset Management.

While a punishing third wave of the coronavirus pandemic creates a headwind for Canada‘s economy, it may not change the big picture on the rate outlook.

“We believe this third wave and the renewed lockdowns are disruptive events to the economy but not destructive,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at Manulife Investment Management.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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