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Economy

Australia’s Economy Rebounds, Confronts Darkening Global Outlook – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — Australia’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter from a virus-driven contraction, yet enters a bumpy period from faster inflation fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that is set to test households’ resilience.

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The economy expanded 3.4% in the final three months of 2021, with most of the gain coming from a burst of household spending in states that emerged from lockdowns, government data showed Wednesday. The current quarter is clouded by a war-driven spike in energy prices and renewed global supply chain snarls.

“It’s the consumer that is cornerstone of the economic recovery,” said Jo Masters, chief economist at EY in Sydney. “The household sector is cashed-up and keen to spend. How households react to rising inflation and interest rates will be critical to the role of the consumer as the economic engine.”

Australia’s economy has already been buffeted by an outbreak of the omicron variant of coronavirus and now faces the darkening global outlook. That helps explain the Reserve Bank’s dovish stance as it uses record-low rates to run the economy hot and push unemployment down to lows not seen since the 1970s.

Today’s report will nonetheless be a boost for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who is trying to burnish his government’s economic credentials in order to reverse declining poll ratings ahead of an election due by May.

Markets failed to react much to the GDP data after bonds rallied and the currency fell overnight in response to events in Ukraine.

What Bloomberg Economics Says

“The rebound in Australia’s GDP in the fourth quarter will probably reverse course in 1Q 2022.”

“It may take until 2Q 2022 for the GDP data to give a clear read on the underlying health of the economy. “

James McIntyre, economist. Read full note here

Economists also see fallout from Russian’s invasion of Ukraine boosting inflation in an economy where wages growth is still tepid.

“The biggest economic threat remains inflation,” said Russel Chesler, head of Investments and Capital Markets at VanEck Associates Corp.

“With rising oil prices and now wheat prices shooting higher, we are likely to see a spike in the price of food and energy products. With global supply chain bottlenecks too being exacerbated by the war and likely to add even more upward pressure on inflation.”

Other details from the GDP report:

  • Household spending jumped by 6.3%, adding 3.2 percentage points to quarterly GDP

  • Household spending in NSW, Victoria and the ACT — which emerged from lockdown — rose 9.6%, compared with 1.6% elsewhere

  • The national household savings rate fell to 13.6% from 19.8%

  • Compensation of employees advanced by 2%, reflecting both increased hours worked and employment

  • The rise in household final consumption expenditure was partly offset by a 1.4% fall in private investment which was hit by shortages of labor and construction materials.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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