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Bank of Canada hikes interest rates by another half percentage point

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The Bank of Canada announced another oversized interest rate hike on Wednesday and said that it is “prepared to act more forcefully” if needed to bring inflation back under control.

The central bank’s governing council voted to raise the policy rate by half a percentage point – its third interest rate hike this year. That brings the benchmark rate to 1.5 per cent, just a quarter point below the pre-pandemic level.

Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.5%. Here’s what that means for Canadians

The bank said that more interest rate hikes will be needed to cool Canada’s overheating economy and to slow the pace of consumer price growth, which hit a three-decade high of 6.8 per cent in April.

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“With the economy in excess demand, and inflation persisting well above target and expected to move higher in the near term, the governing council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further,” the bank said in its rate announcement statement.

Wednesday’s widely-anticipated move follows rate hikes in March and April, the latter of which was also a half-point increase rather than the usual quarter-point move. This is the first time the bank has announced back-to-back 50 basis point rate increases since beginning fixed-date interest rate announcements in 2000.

After holding borrowing costs at record lows for the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada pivoted abruptly this spring and is now moving aggressively to make up for lost time and to shore up its credibility as an inflation-fighter. It warned on Wednesday that “the risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen.”

Higher interest rates are already reverberating through the economy, most notably in the rate-sensitive housing market. The number of home sales across the country fell 12.6 per cent from March to April on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the home price index slid 0.6 per cent, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The central bank faces a “delicate balance” as it tries to slow the economy without triggering a recession, Governor Tiff Macklem said after the last rate decision in April. At this point, however, Mr. Macklem and his team appear to be singularly focused on getting inflation down.

The bank’s comment that it is willing to “act more forcefully” appears to open the door to 75 basis point hikes in the future. Mr. Macklem had previously said that he would not rule anything out, but that a 75 basis point rate hike would be “very unusual.”

“Don’t expect the hawkish rhetoric to let up until inflation starts to trend lower,” Benjamin Reitzes, Bank of Montreal’s director of Canadian rates wrote in a note to clients. “We continue to look for another 50 [basis point] hike in July, but there’s a risk of a 75 [basis point] move if inflation surprises to the high side yet again.”

Central bank economists expect the rate of inflation to move higher in the near term, led by increases in energy and food prices. Inflationary pressures are also broadening out to a wider range of goods and services, making it harder for Canadians to avoid. Nearly 70 per cent of the components of the consumer price index are experiencing inflation above 3 per cent, the bank noted.

Higher interest rates won’t do much to deal with international sources of inflation, which include persistent supply-chain bottlenecks, COVID-19 lockdowns in China, and surging commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But higher interest rates do dampen demand in the economy. That can impact domestic sources of inflation tied to the service sector, housing market and ultra-tight labour market. In practice, this happens by increasing the cost of borrowing money, which shows up in things such as interest rates on mortgages, business loans and car loans.

The bank is particularly concerned that inflation expectations will become unanchored from its 2 per cent inflation target. Inflation expectations matter because people set prices and negotiate wages based on how fast they think prices are rising – creating a kind of self-reinforcing cycle.

Despite the string of rate hikes since March, the bank’s policy rate remains low by historical standards and continues to stimulate the economy. Central bank officials have said they intend to get the benchmark rate to a “neutral” level relatively quickly. They estimate that this is somewhere between 2 and 3 per cent.

Ahead of Wednesday’s announcement, markets were pricing in another half-point move in July, then smaller quarter-point moves at each of the bank’s remaining meetings this year. That would bring the policy rate to around 3 per cent by the end of the year.

Some Bay Street economists have argued that this rate hike path is too aggressive, given how much of the Canadian economy is based on real estate and how sensitive Canada’s highly indebted households are to higher borrowing costs.

“Recent economic data has been quite strong on balance, and it’s both easy and appropriate to sound hawkish when both growth and inflation are running hot,” Andrew Kelvin, Toronto Dominion Bank’s chief Canada strategist wrote in a note to clients.

“As we move into the fall, we expect data will begin to show signs of a broader slowdown as higher interest rates begin to bite into growth. The Bank may be able to maintain its hawkish tone into the July meeting, but when growth begins to slow the change in tone could be abrupt.”

Bank officials have said they aren’t on “autopilot.” Whether they stop raising rates once the policy rate reaches the 2 per cent to 3 per cent range will depend on how the economy reacts to higher borrowing costs.

Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry will give a speech on Thursday explaining the bank’s rationale for the decision.

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What’s open and closed Good Friday, Easter Monday in Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara Region – Global News

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The Easter long weekend is upon us, bringing a rare four-day holiday to some in the Hamilton area. Several businesses and services will be closed on Good Friday (March 29), Easter Sunday (March 31) or Easter Monday (April 1).

Here’s a list of some things that will or will not be operating in Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara Region.

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Administrative offices: Offices are closed on Friday and Monday.

Licensing and bylaw services: Licensing and bylaw phone queue line will be closed on Friday and Monday. Service will resume on Tuesday.

Green bin, garbage and recycling: No collection on Good Friday. Friday’s pickup will occur on Saturday (March 31). Monday will be a regular collection day (April 1). The city says all materials must be at the curb by 7 a.m. Community recycling centres and transfer stations will be closed Friday and Monday.

HSR bus: Buses will operate on a Sunday/holiday schedule Friday and a regular schedule on Monday.

GO Transit: Trains and buses are operating on a Sunday schedule Friday.

ATS DARTS: Service will be operating with holiday service hours on Friday and Monday. Subscription trips on DARTS, with the exception of dialysis, are cancelled for Friday and Monday. ATS customer service will also be closed on Friday and Monday.

Ontario Works: The program, including the special supports, will be closed Friday and Monday. Phone service will resume on Tuesday.

Recreation centres: Closed on Friday and Monday.

Hamilton civic museums: Dundurn National Historic Site, the Hamilton Military Museum and the Hamilton Museum of Steam and Technology will be closed on Friday and Monday.

Tourism Hamilton visitor information centre: Closed Friday to Monday.

Hamilton Public Library: All HPL branches are closed on Good Friday, Easter Sunday and Easter Monday. Branches are open on Saturday and regular hours resume Tuesday, April 2

Social services: All Ontario Works offices, special supports and the housing services office will be closed on Friday and Monday.

Senior centres: Closed Friday and Sunday. Senior clubs will be running modified program schedules from Friday to Monday.

Arenas: Closed to public programming Friday, Sunday and Monday.

Animal services: Closed Good Friday, Sunday and Easter Monday.

Canadian Warplane Heritage Museum in Mount Hope: Open Good Friday, Saturday and Easter Sunday. Closed Easter Monday.

Burlington

Government offices: Local government such as city hall, municipal offices and facilities will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday.


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Administrative services: Services including parks, roads and forestry will be closed on Friday and Monday. Only snow removal and urgent services will be provided.

Animal Shelter and Control: Closed all weekend, Friday through Monday. Emergencies can be called in to 905-335-7777.

Recreation centres: Some city pools, arenas and community centres will be operational on a limited schedule. Visit burlington.ca/dropinandplay for details. Some outdoor recreation facilities will also be open, weather permitting. Visit burlington.ca/outdoorplay for more information. Tyandaga Golf Course will be closed. The tentative season opener is set for April 6.

Halton Provincial Offences Court: Closed on Friday and Monday.

Free parking: Available Friday and Monday in the downtown core in municipal lots, on-street and in the parking garage, however, the Waterfront parking lots (east and west) do not provide free parking on statutory holidays. Parking exemptions are required to park overnight on city streets and for longer than five hours. Visit burlington.ca/parkingexemptions for more.

Burlington Transit: Transit will operate a holiday schedule Sunday. The downtown transit terminal, specialized dispatch and the administration office will be closed on March 29. Monday is a regular schedule.

Niagara Region

Government offices: City halls, the Enterprise Centre and administration offices are all closed on Good Friday. Some offices, like St. Catharines, will reopen on Easter Monday.

Parks, recreation and culture services: All City recreation centres are closed on Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Administration offices are all closed on Friday. Some will be closed on Monday. St. Catharines Kiwanis Aquatics Centre is closed Friday, but open on Saturday. Seymour-Hannah Sports and Entertainment Centre is closed Friday, but open regular hours through the weekend and Monday.

Community centres: All older adult centres and arenas will either be closed or have reduced hours on Friday, Sunday and Monday.

St. Catharines Museum; Welland Canals Centre: Both facilities will be closed on Good Friday but open the rest of the long weekend between 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Niagara Regional Transit: Both St. Catharines and Niagara Falls buses will operate on a holiday schedule for Good Friday. Regional, Fort Erie and Welland service will not be running Friday. The agency will have regular hours on Easter Sunday and Monday.

Canada Post: No collection or mail delivery on Monday. Most post offices operated by the private sector will also be closed during business hours.

Grocery stores: Major grocery stores like Fortinos, Metro, FreshCo and No Frills will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

Shoppers Drug Mart: Some locations in the city will be open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday, but not all. Holiday hours can be seen on the Shoppers store locator map.

Rexall: Some outlets are open on a holiday schedule, but not all. Visit the Rexall website for store hours.

Malls: All major shopping centres in Hamilton, Burlington, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls will be closed on Good Friday. Exceptions include:

  • Outlet Collection at Niagara Falls: Open from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
  • CF Toronto Eaton Centre: Open noon to 7 p.m.
  • Toronto Premium Outlets in Halton Hills: Open Friday from 9:30 a.m. to 7 p.m. and Sunday from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.
  • Pacific Mall in Toronto: Open between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m.
  • Vaughan Mills will be open from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.

In Toronto, retailers in designated tourist areas such as Yorkville, downtown Yonge, Queen’s Quay West and the Distillery District can stay open Good Friday, according to City of Toronto bylaws.

Walmart: All Walmarts in the GTHA will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday except the Niagara Falls Supercentre on Oakwood Drive, which is open between 7 a.m. and 11 p.m. on those days.

Alcohol

The Beer Store: All stores will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

LCBO: All stores will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

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Wine Rack: Most Hamilton locations will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday except for the Wilson Street West location in Ancaster and the Guelph Line outlet in Burlington.

Wilson Street will be open Noon to 5 p.m. on Good Friday and 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Easter Sunday. Guelph Line will open 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Friday and Sunday.

Tourist destinations

Niagara Falls: Some Niagara Falls attractions are closed during the early spring, including the Whirlpool Aero Car and Wildplay Whirlpool Adventure Course, and the White Water Walk.

However, some, like the Niagara City Cruises, Journey Behind the Falls, Niagara Falls History Museum and The Exchange, and the Niagara Power Station are open and will be operating on Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Hours of operation can be seen on the Niagara Parks website.

The Butterfly Conservatory will be open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.

Toronto: Most Toronto attractions are either closed or have adjusted hours on Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

  • The Hockey Hall of Fame will be open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
  • The Toronto Zoo will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.
  • The Ontario Science Centre will be open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
  • Ripley’s Aquarium will be open from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m.
  • The Art Gallery of Ontario will be open from 10:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
  • The Royal Ontario Museum will be open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.
  • The Aga Khan Museum will be open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.

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CRA pausing new 'bare trust' reporting requirement just days before filing deadline – CBC News

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The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is hitting pause on a new “bare trust” reporting requirement with just a few days remaining before the deadline.

New reporting requirements for such trust arrangements were introduced for the 2024 tax season. Anyone with a bare trust was required to file a T3 tax return form naming the trustees, beneficiaries and settlors of each trust by April 2.

But on Thursday — with four days before the deadline to file — the CRA announced that it would be pausing the reporting measures.

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“In recognition that the new reporting requirements for bare trusts have had an unintended impact on Canadians, the Canada Revenue Agency will not require bare trusts to file a T3 … for the 2023 tax year, unless the CRA makes a direct request for these filings,” a statement released by the tax agency said.

John Oakey, a vice president with the Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada, said the government hasn’t done a great job of communicating the changes.

“There’s no advertising from the government saying these are coming. You don’t see an ad on the television. You don’t see ads in magazines,” he said.

“The only way that individuals are really finding out is from advisers, financial institutions … people that are already aware of these rules.”

No definition of ‘bare trust’ in Income Tax Act

There is no definition of a bare trust in the Income Tax Act. The CRA defines a bare trust as “arrangement under which the trustee can reasonably be considered to act as agent for all the beneficiaries under the trust with respect to all dealings with all of the trust’s property.”

Unlike express trusts, where people seek out a lawyer to create a trust, bare trusts can happen almost accidentally — when a parent cosigns a mortgage for a child and becomes partial owner, or when an aging parent puts their kids down as partial owners of their house in anticipation of an impending death.

Oakey said a bare trust could also be something as simple as a shared bank account.

“If I put my name on [my parents’] bank account in order to help them pay their bills, that creates a trust relationship,” he said.

“I have no real control over the asset. I still have to adhere to their wishes. All I’m doing is acting as an agent on their behalf to do whatever they want me to do.”

In those cases, the bare trust does not earn any money for the trustee to report in a given tax year.

Even though Canadians wouldn’t have been taxed on a trust’s value, failure to report being a member of a bare trust could have resulted in a fine of $2,500, or five per cent of the value of all property in the trust, whichever is higher.

The requirement was meant as a way to crack down on tax avoidance. Corporations and wealthy individuals sometimes hold properties in bare trusts so they can avoid paying property transfer taxes. Oakey said the move was also likely an effort to crack down on money laundering.

The CRA said it would be working to “to further clarify its guidance on this filing requirement” over the coming months.

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Economy grows more than expected, keeping the Bank of Canada 'on its toes' – Financial Post

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January GDP strongest monthly growth in a year

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The Canadian economy surprised to the upside in January, posting its strongest monthly growth in a year, which could keep the Bank of Canada “on its toes,” say economists.

Real gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the value of goods and services produced during a specific time frame, edged up by 0.6 per cent in January, according to Statistics Canada, beating analysts’ expectations of 0.4 per cent. The agency also expects a 0.4 per cent rise in GDP during February.

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“To put that two-month flurry of growth into perspective, the combined one per cent gain is as much as the economy grew in the entire 12 months of 2023,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said in a note. “After a prolonged lull through much of last year … the economy looks to have caught some strong tailwinds early this year.”

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The rise in GDP was due to broad-based growth in 18 of the 20 sectors measured by Statistics Canada.

The public sector, which includes education, health care and social assistance and public administration, increased 1.9 per cent in January, following two consecutive monthly declines. Education, which grew by six per cent, was the largest contributor to the country’s growth as activity rebounded from strikes by public sector workers in Quebec late last year.

Manufacturing fully recouped December’s decline in growth with a 0.9 per cent rise in January. A sudden drop in temperature in mid-January in parts of Canada contributed to increased activity in the utilities sector, which rose by 3.2 per cent, its highest growth rate since January 2022.

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The real estate and rental sector grew for a third consecutive month — by 0.4 per cent — on higher resale activity. The Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton-Burlington and most markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe contributed to the growth.

The information and cultural services sector, which includes the motion picture and sound recording industry, also grew for the third consecutive month, as activity continued to ramp up following the end of a strike by the Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists in November.

These “robust” figures could pose a difficult challenge for the Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Marc Ercolao said in a note.

While the central bank has received “solid evidence” in the past two months that inflation is cooperating, “strong GDP data prints” such as today’s will “keep them on their toes,” said Ercolao, who expects the first interest rate cut to take place in July.

On the labour front, Statistics Canada said there were 632,100 job vacancies in January, down 34,800, or 5.2 per cent, from November. Vacancies in the manufacturing sector declined by 10.2 per cent to 37,500, the lowest level since September 2017.

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Monthly payroll increases were recorded in 13 of 20 sectors, led by retail trade, manufacturing and finance. But these gains were offset by a 0.3 per cent decline in construction.

The number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employers, as measured by payroll employment, rose for the first time in the retail trade after four consecutive monthly declines.

Despite the strong start to the year, some economists expressed caution, especially regarding February’s GDP estimate.

Claire Fan, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, said the “substantially stronger-than-expected” numbers are partially driven by one-off factors such as the ending of the Quebec teachers’ strike, so growth isn’t likely to be sustained in the coming months.

“We’ve learned to take the advance estimates (February) with a grain of salt as they have been highly revision prone,” she said, while retaining RBC’s assessment of a weak economic backdrop.

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BMO’s Porter said Canada experienced something similar last year when GDP stalled after a strong start to the year.

“There could be a serious issue with seasonality here, especially in light of much milder winters recently,” he said.

Despite the increase in GDP, most economists have stuck to their previous predictions that June will be when the Bank of Canada issues its initial interest rate cut.

• Email: nkarim@postmedia.com

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