Economy
Bank of Canada to taper asset purchases again next quarter
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The Bank of Canada will taper its asset purchase programme again next quarter and raise interest rates earlier than previously predicted amid expectations for a robust economic recovery after a recent downturn, a Reuters poll showed.
In April the BoC became the first among Group of Seven central banks to reduce the scope of its pandemic support although preliminary data showed the Canadian economy likely contracted 0.8% that month, its first decline in a year, largely due to coronavirus lockdown restrictions.
Canadian policymakers were forecast to keep monetary policy unchanged at the June 9 meeting, according to all 31 economists in the May 28-June 2 poll.
Sixteen of 17 economists who responded to an additional question said the central bank would taper its asset purchase programme again next quarter, to C$2 billion ($1.7 billion) per week from C$3 billion per week currently. One predicted it for October.
“We continue to expect the Bank to cut its purchases at every other meeting, meaning that it will trim them to C$2 bln per week in July and to C$1 bln per week in October,” noted Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics.
“As the (economic) weakness in the second quarter was caused by the coronavirus restrictions, there is now scope for a stronger rebound in the third quarter as those restrictions are eased, and we continue to expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level by August or September.”
The poll consensus showed the BoC would raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% in Q4 next year, compared to no change predicted through to the end of 2022 in a poll taken just before the April meeting.
Fifteen of 22 economists in the latest survey expected at least one rate hike by end-2022, compared to seven of 25 previously.
While Canada‘s annual inflation rate rose to 3.4% in April, its fastest pace in a decade, that increase in price pressures was not expected to be sustained this year, according to over 70% of 14 economists in response to another question.
The BoC in April said it expected inflation to temporarily hit the top of its 1%-to-3% control range, before returning to around 2% in the second half of the year, echoing the findings of a separate Reuters poll of economists. [ECILT/CA]
“Next year is a long time away from now. At this point we are more focused on tapering and the timeline around that. Expectations are that inflation remains transitory, but that is not necessarily the case,” said Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates & macro strategist at BMO Capital markets.
“Even if it is transitory over a multi-year period, maybe it will last a little bit longer and make central bank officials a little bit less comfortable keeping policy as easy as it is.”
Asked if the Canadian central bank was likely to raise interest rates before the U.S. Federal Reserve, about 90% of economists, or 14 of 16 respondents, said yes.
“The BoC has already laid out a roadmap for a H2 2022 rate hike whereas the Fed is still sticking to the 2024 time frame,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
“While I doubt the Fed will leave it that late, I suspect the supply strains in Canada are more intense than they are in the U.S., with (Canadian) employment already having nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels.”
(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)
($1 = 1.2077 Canadian dollars)
(Reporting by Mumal Rathore and Shrutee Sarkar; Polling by Sujith Pai; Editing by Rahul Karunakar and Richard Chang)
Economy
Opinion: Canada's economy has stagnated despite Trudeau government spin – Financial Post
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Growth in gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of all goods and services produced in the economy annually, is one of the most frequently cited indicators of economic performance. To assess Canadian living standards and the current health of the economy, journalists, politicians and analysts often compare Canada’s GDP growth to growth in other countries or in Canada’s past. But GDP is misleading as a measure of living standards when population growth rates vary greatly across countries or over time.
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Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland recently boasted that Canada had experienced the “strongest economic growth in the G7” in 2022. In this she echoes then-prime minister Stephen Harper, who said in 2015 that Canada’s GDP growth was “head and shoulders above all our G7 partners over the long term.”
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Unfortunately, such statements do more to obscure public understanding of Canada’s economic performance than enlighten it. Lately, our aggregate GDP growth has been driven primarily by population and labour force growth, not productivity improvements. It is not mainly the result of Canadians becoming better at producing goods and services and thus generating more real income for their families. Instead, it is a result of there simply being more people working. That increases the total amount of goods and services produced but doesn’t translate into increased living standards.
Let’s look at the numbers. From 2000 to 2023 Canada’s annual average growth in real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) GDP growth was the second highest in the G7 at 1.8 per cent, just behind the United States at 1.9 per cent. That sounds good — until you adjust for population. Then a completely different story emerges.
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Over the same period, the growth rate of Canada’s real per person GDP (0.7 per cent) was meaningfully worse than the G7 average (1.0 per cent). The gap with the U.S. (1.2 per cent) was even larger. Only Italy performed worse than Canada.
Why the inversion of results from good to bad? Because Canada has had by far the fastest population growth rate in the G7, an average of 1.1 per cent per year — more than twice the 0.5 per cent experienced in the G7 as a whole. In aggregate, Canada’s population increased by 29.8 per cent during this period, compared to just 11.5 per cent in the entire G7.
Starting in 2016, sharply higher rates of immigration have led to a pronounced increase in Canada’s population growth. This increase has obscured historically weak economic growth per person over the same period. From 2015 to 2023, under the Trudeau government, real per person economic growth averaged just 0.3 per cent. That compares with 0.8 per cent annually under Brian Mulroney, 2.4 per cent under Jean Chrétien and 2.0 per cent under Paul Martin.
Recommended from Editorial
Canada is neither leading the G7 nor doing well in historical terms when it comes to economic growth measures that make simple adjustments for our rapidly growing population. In reality, we’ve become a growth laggard and our living standards have largely stagnated for the better part of a decade.
Ben Eisen, Milagros Palacios and Lawrence Schembri are analysts at the Fraser Institute.
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Economy
Federal budget is about ensuring fair economy for ‘everyone’: Trudeau – Global News
Delivering remarks to his Liberal cabinet during a caucus meeting on Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasized that the newly-announced federal government is intended to help create a fair economy for “everyone” in Canada, particularly those from Millennials and Gen Z.
Economy
Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF – BBC.com
An influential global body has forecast Russia’s economy will grow faster than all of the world’s advanced economies, including the US, this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Russia to grow 3.2% this year, significantly more than the UK, France and Germany.
Oil exports have “held steady” and government spending has “remained high” contributing to growth, the IMF said.
Overall, it said the world economy had been “remarkably resilient”
“Despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops,” the IMF said.
The IMF is an international organisation with 190 member countries. They are used by businesses to help plan where to invest, and by central banks, such as the Bank of England to guide its decisions on interest rates.
The group says that the forecasts it makes for growth the following year in most advanced economies, more often than not, have been within about 1.5 percentage points of what actually happens.
Despite the Kremlin being sanctioned over its invasion of Ukraine, the IMF upgraded its January predictions for the Russian economy this year, and said while growth would be lower in 2025, it would be still be higher than previously expected at 1.8%.
Investments from corporate and state owned enterprises and “robustness in private consumption” within Russia had promoted growth alongside strong exports of oil, according to Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director at the IMF.
Russia is one of the world’s biggest oil exporters and in February, the BBC revealed millions of barrels of fuel made from Russian oil were still being imported to the UK despite sanctions.
Away from Russia, the IMF downgraded its forecasts across Europe and for the UK this year, predicting 0.5% growth this year, making the UK the second weakest performer across the G7 group of advanced economies, behind Germany.
The G7 also includes France, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US.
Growth is set to improve to 1.5% in 2025, putting the UK among the top three best performers in the G7, according to the IMF.
However, the IMF said that interest rates in the UK will remain higher than other advanced nations, close to 4% until 2029.
The group expects the UK to have the highest inflation of any G7 economy in 2023 and 2024.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the IMF’s figures showed that the UK economy was turning a corner.
“Inflation in 2024 is predicted to be 1.2% lower than before, and over the next six years we are projected to grow faster than large European economies such as Germany or France – both of which have had significantly larger downgrades to short-term growth than the UK,” he said.
Conflict in the Middle East
Economists at the IMF warned that if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates further in the Middle East it could lead to rising food and energy prices around the world.
Continued attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the ongoing war in Ukraine could also affect the so far “remarkably resilient” global economy, it said.
A potential spike in food, energy and transport costs would see lower-income countries hardest hit, it added.
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