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Economy

Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America’s economy. What does this mean for the nation’s political-economic divide? – Brookings Institution

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Even with a new president and political party soon in charge of the White House, the nation’s economic standoff continues. Notwithstanding President-elect Joe Biden’s solid popular vote victory, last week’s election failed to deliver the kind of transformative reorientation of the nation’s political-economic map that Democrats (and some Republicans) had hoped for. The data confirms that the election sharpened the striking geographic divide between red and blue America, instead of dispelling it.

Most notably, the stark economic rift that Brookings Metro documented after Donald Trump’s shocking 2016 victory has grown even wider. In 2016, we wrote that the 2,584 counties that Trump won generated just 36% of the country’s economic output, whereas the 472 counties Hillary Clinton carried equated to almost two-thirds of the nation’s aggregate economy.

A similar analysis for last week’s election shows these trends continuing, albeit with a different political outcome. This time, Biden’s winning base in 477 counties encompasses fully 70% of America’s economic activity, while Trump’s losing base of 2,497 counties represents just 29% of the economy. (Votes are still outstanding in 110 mostly low-output counties, and this piece will be updated as new data is reported.)

Table 1. Candidates’ counties won and share of GDP in 2016 and 2020

Year Candidate Counties won Total votes Aggregate share of US GDP
2016 Hillary Clinton 472 65,853,625 64%
Donald Trump 2,584 62,985,106 36%
2020 Joe Biden 477 75,602,458 70%
Donald Trump 2,497 71,216,709 29%

Note: 2020 figures reflect unofficial results from 96% of counties

Source: Brookings analysis of data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, The New York Times, and Moody’s Analytics

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So, while the election’s winner may have changed, the nation’s economic geography remains rigidly divided. Biden captured virtually all of the counties with the biggest economies in the country (depicted by the largest blue tiles in the nearby graphic), including flipping the few that Clinton did not win in 2016.

By contrast, Trump won thousands of counties in small-town and rural communities with correspondingly tiny economies (depicted by the red tiles). Biden’s counties tended to be far more diverse, educated, and white-collar professional, with their aggregate nonwhite and college-educated shares of the economy running to 35% and 36%, respectively, compared to 16% and 25% in counties that voted for Trump.

In short, 2020’s map continues to reflect a striking split between the large, dense, metropolitan counties that voted Democratic and the mostly exurban, small-town, or rural counties that voted Republican.  Blue and red America reflect two very different economies: one oriented to diverse, often college-educated workers in professional and digital services occupations, and the other whiter, less-educated, and more dependent on “traditional” industries.

With that said, it would be wrong to describe this as a completely static map. While the metropolitan/ nonmetropolitan dichotomy remained starkly persistent, 2020 election returns produced nontrivial movement, as Biden added modestly to the Democrats’ metropolitan base and significantly to its vote base. Most notably, Biden flipped seven of the nation’s 100 highest-output counties, strengthening the link between these core economic hubs and the Democratic Party. More specifically, Biden flipped half of the 10 most economically significant counties Trump won in 2016, including Phoenix’s Maricopa County; Dallas-Fort Worth’s Tarrant County; Jacksonville, Fla.’s Duval County; Morris County in New Jersey; and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla.’s Pinellas County.

Altogether, those losses shaved about 3 percentage points’ worth of GDP off the economic base of Trump counties. That reduced the share of the nation’s GDP produced by Republican-voting counties to a new low in recent times.

Why does this matter? This economic rift that persists in dividing the nation is a problem because it underscores the near-certainty of both continued clashes between the political parties and continued alienation and misunderstandings.

To start with, the 2020’s sharpened economic divide forecasts gridlock in Congress and between the White House and Senate on the most important issues of economic policy. The problem—as we have witnessed over the past decade and are likely to continue seeing—is not only that Democrats and Republicans disagree on issues of culture, identity, and power, but that they represent radically different swaths of the economy. Democrats represent voters who overwhelmingly reside in the nation’s diverse economic centers, and thus tend to prioritize housing affordability, an improved social safety net, transportation infrastructure, and racial justice. Jobs in blue America also disproportionately rely on national R&D investment, technology leadership, and services exports.

By contrast, Republicans represent an economic base situated in the nation’s struggling small towns and rural areas. Prosperity there remains out of reach for many, and the party sees no reason to consider the priorities and needs of the nation’s metropolitan centers. That is not a scenario for economic consensus or achievement.

At the same time, the results from last week’s election likely underscore fundamental problems of economic alienation and estrangement. Specifically, Trump’s anti-establishment appeal suggests that a sizable portion of the country continues to feel little connection to the nation’s core economic enterprises, and chose to channel that animosity into a candidate who promised not to build up all parts of the country, but rather to vilify groups who didn’t resemble his base.

If this pattern continues—with one party aiming to confront the challenges at top of mind for a majority of Americans, and the other continuing to stoke the hostility and indignation held by a significant minority—it will be a recipe not only for more gridlock and ineffective governance, but also for economic harm to nearly all people and places. In light of the desperate need for a broad, historic recovery from the economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic, a continuation of the patterns we’ve seen play out over the past decade would be a particularly unsustainable situation for Americans in communities of all sizes.

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Niagara's new economic development director looks forward to regrowing economy in 2021 – WellandTribune.ca

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Niagara’s new economic development director George Spezza is optimistic about the year to come, despite the devastation many businesses have suffered under COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

“If we can weather the storm and look forward to an economic recovery based on some of the successes of the vaccines that are coming forward, I think 2021 could be an opportunity to really gain that momentum and start growing the economy again,” said Spezza, who started his new job on Monday.

“I’m always really impressed with people’s ability to fight against some of these crises and survive. We want to do everything we can from an economic and regional perspective to support that growth and recovery efforts. I believe it will take some time, but the future is bright moving forward.”

Spezza suspects the economic recovery will begin slowly in the first few months of 2021, and quickly increase as restrictions are lifted.

When that happens, he said the industries that have been impacted the most such as tourism, and hospitality “should see an influx of people coming back to that sector, and they’ll start seeing some of that growth.”

“Companies will have to be ready and prepared for that influx of tourism and hospitality.”

In the meantime, he said, Niagara’s economic development office will continue to assist businesses, keeping them up to date on information about programs and assistance accessing upper-tier government funding.

“The provincial and federal governments are coming forward with significant dollars and our role really is to ensure that our business community has access to that, and we can provide some assistance in accessing those programs,” Spezza said.

Navigating through the ever-changing information about programs that are available can be difficult for business owners, who are already working long hours running the day-to-day operations of their companies.

Spezza had been paying attention to Niagara while working as director of business growth services for Toronto’s economic development and culture office, prior to joining the Region’s economic development office. The Mississauga resident said he could see Niagara’s potential.

“It’s really a region with a lot of upside and a bright future,” he said, adding he often visited Niagara to explore the area.

“It was growing and doing well, and I think there’s a great opportunity for success there.”

Spezza’s interest in helping the region realize its potential led him to apply for the job running the economic development office and brought some new ideas to the job on ways to accomplish that goal.

“Niagara has a global brand already, and there are some great opportunities on how we can continue to build on that brand.”

Through collaboration and teamwork, Spezza said he hopes to leverage Niagara’s well-known brand to drive expansion into other markets and drive increased investment.

“Certainly we have a hospitality industry that is very well recognized around the world, but how can we best capture the visitors and tourism in the area to talk about all the other amazing opportunities to invest in the region?” he said.

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Spezza described Valerie Kuhns — the Niagara Region Economic Development department’s strategic economic initiatives manager who had been filling the vacancy for most of the past two years — as a “consummate professional,” adding he is looking forward to working with her and other office staff.

“I think we’re going to make a very good team working together, Val and I and the rest of the office,” he said.

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Canadians to get say on how to grow Blue ocean economy – SaltWire Network

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Canadians will be asked their opinions as the federal government begins crafting its strategy to develop a blue economy.

Fisheries and Oceans Minister Bernadette Jordan says the online consultation process will begin in the new year to open up the discussion to provinces, territories, Indigenous peoples and others. More details on the process will come soon, she said.

That was just one of the details revealed Thursday, Dec. 3,  in a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Ocean Frontier Institute (OFI), following up on the announcement of the previous day of Canada’s commitment with 13 other nations to sustainably manage 100 per cent of its oceans.

The OFI-hosted virtual panel discussion — Charting a Course for a Sustainable Blue Economy — focused on Canada’s opportunities for sustainable growth of the “blue” economy.

Panelists included OFI’s CEO and science director Dr. Anya Waite, OFI’s strategic engagement officer Catherine Blewett and Karin Kemper, global director for environment, natural resources and blue economy global practice with the World Bank, as well as Jordan.

244,000 miles worth of management


WHAT’S A BLUE ECONOMY?

The blue economy is described as an economy driven by sustainable, ocean resources and accounts for about $31.65 billion annually in GDP. It is the source of almost 300,000 Canadian jobs with direct, indirect and induced benefits in sectors as diverse as fisheries and aquaculture, marine transportation, ocean energy and technology, recreation and tourism.

WHAT IS PROBLUE?

This is a multi-donor trust fund that “supports the sustainable and integrated development of marine and coastal resources in healthy oceans.” PROBLUE has four pillars: fisheries and aquaculture, marine pollution, oceanic sectors, and seascape management. To date, PROBLUE has received pledges of approximately US$110 million from Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, France and Germany.


There are many challenges ahead for those who aim to grow the blue economy. One is just the sheer expanse of the seas on planet earth.

Waite noted if the world’s ocean were measured as a country, it would be the seventh largest in the world.

And among the world’s nations, Canada governs a massive marine environment — three oceans and a coastline of about 244,000 kilometres.

Those marine areas are crucial, not just to national economies, but to the global environment.

The Labrador Sea, for instance, on Canada’s East Coast, is referred to as “the Earth’s lungs.”

The seawater in that space absorbs carbon and heat; it’s a natural filter that helps regulate global climate.

“The Labrador Sea is a bigger carbon sink than the Amazon rain forest,” said Waite. “The ocean is our climate.”

Protecting the ocean environment will be a significant task.

The ocean economy

Fishing boats at Petit Etang, Cape Breton. According to the World Bank, one in 10 people in the world depend on the fishing industry for their livelihood. - SaltWire File Photo
Fishing boats at Petit Etang, Cape Breton. According to the World Bank, one in 10 people in the world depend on the fishing industry for their livelihood. – SaltWire File Photo

Finding balance between environmental protection and economic needs will be another.

Globally, said World Bank director Kemper, one in 10 livelihoods are dependent on fisheries, with women making up about half of the fish harvesting/processing workforce.

She said as Canada and the other nations move towards sustainable management, there may be some short-term tradeoffs, but “in the long term we have to focus on sustainability.”

And as countries begin the process of recovering from COVID, she said, some short-term solutions could aid the long-term goal of the sustainable oceans commitment.

“Governments might want to do large infrastructure projects to create employment – putting money into people’s pockets in the short term,” she said, “and that could lead to things like cement seawalls to prevent coastal erosion, planting mangroves to rebuild swamps or doing recovery work on reefs.”

There’s no dispute that there’s still much to learn about the ocean.

According to Jordan, the current Canadian government has done much work since 2015 to improve research and rebuild fish stocks.

For example, she said, funding was recently increased to expand knowledge of caplin, the fish that feeds other fish, in the Newfoundland and Labrador region.

“We are using the new funding to examine this data to determine how it can be used to establish reference points to advise resource managers,” she told SaltWire.

Since 2018 she noted, the federal government has completed rebuilding plans for six of 19 selected fish stocks.

More than fishing

Fisheries and Oceans Minister Bernadette Jordan - SaltWire File Photo
Fisheries and Oceans Minister Bernadette Jordan – SaltWire File Photo

The blue economy is not only the fishing industry.

“Our ocean industries account for nearly $32 billion annually in GDP and 300,000 jobs across fishing, aquaculture, energy, ocean technology, shipping, tourism and other industries.”

And the goal of ocean sustainability is a global one, with a challenge for progressive nations to help underdeveloped countries in sustainable ocean management.

That’s why Canada is also committing to help other nations craft their own sustainable oceans plans through the World Bank’s PROBLUE fund.

Thursday Jordan announced Canada will invest another $4 million to that fund, for a total commitment of $69 million, making this country the top donor to the fund so far.

You can watch the full panel discussion here:

[embedded content]


 Transforming the ocean economy; the principles

The following principles are outlined in the report “Transformation for a Sustainable Ocean Economy”, a vision document created by Canada and the 13 other nations that have committed to enacting sustainable management of 100 percent their oceans by 2025.

Alignment: Ocean protection and production must align with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Polluter Pays Principle as set out in the Rio Declaration. Actions must be aligned across ocean-based and land-based activities and ecosystems.

Inclusiveness: Human rights, gender equality, community and Indigenous Peoples’ participation, through their free, prior and informed consent, must be respected and protected.

Knowledge: Ocean management must be informed by the best available science and knowledge, including indigenous and local knowledge, and aided by innovation and technology.

Legality: The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea is the legal basis for all ocean activities, and existing international ocean commitments must be implemented as a foundation for achieving a sustainable ocean economy.

Precaution: Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.

Protection: A healthy ocean underpins a sustainable ocean economy. A net gain approach must be applied to ocean uses in order to help sustain or restore the health of the ocean.

Resilience: The resilience of the ocean and ocean economy must be enhanced.

Solidarity: The need for access to finance, technology and capacity building for developing countries, especially Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries, must be recognised, taking into account their particular circumstances and vulnerabilities.

Sustainability: The production and harvesting of ocean resources must be sustainable and support resilient ecosystems and future productivity.

Click here for more about the Ocean Frontier Institute visit.

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Economy

Brazil's economy grew 7.7% in Q3, but slower than expected – 570 News

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RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s economy grew 7.7% in the third quarter of the year from the previous three months, the national statistics institute reported on Thursday — the strongest quarterly result in a quarter century but less than expected following heavy stimulus spending.

It is the fastest quarterly growth since the series began in 1996 and confirmed the Brazilian economy’s exit from technical recession, characterized by two consecutive quarters of contraction. But activity hasn’t yet returned to the level seen prior to the coronavirus pandemic.

Brazil’s Economy Ministry had projected growth of 8.3% for the period, according to a bulletin relased on Nov. 17.

The expansion during July through September coincided with the payment of emergency assistance funds to more than 60 million people to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, and also with the reopening of activities in most states, where quarantine measures were relaxed.

“The data is disappointing due to the enormous fiscal stimulus that the government used for the economy to recover,” Emerson Marçal, head of the Center for Applied Macroeconomics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, told The Associated Press by phone.

The emergency payment, about $10 monthly in the third quarter, helped boost retail sales and contributed to the recovery of industrial production, Marçal said. The end of the aid, tentatively scheduled for December, and the possibility of new restrictions on activity due to the surge of coronavirus cases may further compromise the speed of recovery, he added.

Brazil has confirmed more than 6.4 million coronavirus infections, with 174,000 deaths. In recent weeks, infections have risen in big cities like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. President Jair Bolsonaro has consistently argued that the economic impact of lockdowns and other measures during the pandemic would be more damaging to Brazil than COVID-19 itself.

Brazilian banks estimate a 4.5% drop in Brazilian GDP for 2020, a smaller decline than is expected in the region’s other major economies. The International Monetary Fund projects a contraction of 8.1% for the Latin American and Caribbean region, with Brazil least affected by the crisis.

Marcelo Silva De Sousa, The Associated Press

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