This year, 2021, was the optimistic window of economic recovery, with an assured mass vaccination program and an imagined return to normalcy.
As with previous pandemics, once confidence was restored the economy boomed; but enthusiasm seems deferred until much later this year, or into 2022.
Government investments have been far more prevalent through this crisis than any preceding.
There are those that are starting to argue the supports have been too liberal and now must be tapered.
Vaccine procurement and distribution have been abysmally delayed domestically (according to current Oxford data, Canada has distributed 3.52 single doses per 100 people; Israel has distributed 79.48, and even the U.S. has distributed 17 per 100 persons).
Early vaccines are complicated to move across the vastness of our large country, but is our effectiveness more a reflection of Canada’s diminishing global positioning?
Locally, has P.E.I. become a beacon for health management, or have we “jumped the shark” in our irrational vigilance and fear of the outside community?
Can an economy 99 per cent dependent on external factors ever thrive in post pandemic/rolling variant environment?
Has our cultural attitude shifted so profoundly that a return to 2019 is no longer an aspiration?
Blake Doyle – Contributed
By casual observation, any street in our urban settings remain about 30 per cent occupied by vehicles.
The loss of traffic has not diminished the voracity of metre-hornets trying to make up for lost metre revenue, but the decline in traffic volume is concerning for urban small business owners.
Equally perplexing is the consistent swell of volumes in the evenings and weekends.
The casual policy decisions to force public employees to work from home has not only impacted productivity but decimated downtown retail and service trades shifting energy to post workday evening socialization and food services.
Is this positive, or negative, or just a shift we need to recognize and adapt to?
With tourism all but deferred until 2022 and unsettling trends occurring in our labour market, can the economy absorb job seekers if the volume of local employment options is diminishing?
U.S. jobless claims are exceeding estimates, labour participation rates in Summerside and Charlottetown are declining as people opt out of the workforce and the CERB/EI benefits will be expiring in the coming quarter.
All pointing to structural labour challenges.
2020/2021 business profits will hold a key to forecast trending.
Pandemic impacts, coupled with misaligned Federal government taxation policies, have stripped business from incentive to invest, almost certainly ushering a period of business stagnation. Declining investment will signal decline in growth and cascade any challenges presenting in the labour force.
So where are the opportunities?
Relying on the multiplication factors of local expenditure investment will not satisfy the economy or provincial government expenditures.
We require the infusion of capital and people.
This week, the federal government, remaining committed to their immigration targets, made a surprise move to approve six times the number of express entry applicants in a single period.
This is great if our province has a strong retention strategy. If not, it may signal a concern for local businesses relying on foreign labour.
The economy is starving for economic stewardship.
Not unscheduled press junkets to relay irrelevant information, but the articulation of a plan, actions for recovery and a path to empower economic drivers and regain control of our economic future.
We can’t control the movement of a coronavirus, as we can’t administer “the cold”; but we do need to return to a functional adaptive economy.
As spring warms the air – so to does enthusiasm for employment, activity and profits.
Blake Doyle is The Guardian’s small business columnist.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
