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Budget 2021: Sunak promises new post-Covid economy amid Commons anger – BBC News

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Rishi Sunak preparing for Budget speech

UK government

The chancellor has promised his Budget “begins the work of preparing for a new economy” post-Covid, after rafts of policy previews angered the Commons.

Spending for transport, health and education has already been unveiled in the press, leading to fury from the Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle.

Later Rishi Sunak will fill in the gaps of his Budget – and how he plans to pay for all the pledges.

But the Treasury has already asked departments to find “at least 5% of savings and efficiencies from their day-to-day budgets” – so it is clear not every area will get the same treatment.

And Labour has warned the spending pledges do not go far enough to make up for tax and price hikes, leading to a rising cost of living.

Traditionally the government is expected to make key policy announcements to MPs first before talking to the press, as they are the elected representatives who can hold them to account in debates.

But an unprecedented number of spending plans have been given to the media in the run-up to Mr Sunak’s big speech, with Sir Lindsay telling the House that ministers used to “walk” if they briefed about a Budget.

The break in tradition – deemed “not acceptable” and “discourteous” by the Speaker – also became a feature during the pandemic, with a number of announcements made at press conferences rather than in Parliament.

A No 10 spokesman said they “recognised the importance of parliamentary scrutiny” and they “always listen very carefully to the Speaker”.

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Policies already unveiled from the chancellor’s budget include:

  • £6.9bn for English city regions to spend on train, tram, bus and cycle projects – including the £4.2bn promised in 2019 alongside funding for buses announced by the PM in 2020
  • £5.9bn for NHS England to tackle the backlog of people waiting for tests and scans
  • A rise in the National Living Wage from £8.91 per hour to £9.50, to come into effect from 1 April
  • £2.6bn to be spent on creating 30,000 new school places for children with special educational needs and disabilities
  • £1.6bn over three years to roll out new T-levels for 16 to 19-year-olds and £550m for adult skills in England

Mr Sunak will announce the rest of his plans after Prime Minister’s Questions at around 12:30 BST.

One of the pre-announced policies is the end to a pay freeze for public sector workers – such as teachers, nurses and police officers – but ministers have so far refused to say whether it will be a real-terms rise by being higher than inflation.

Pay for most frontline workforces is set by independent pay review bodies and No 10 has said it could not “prejudge that process”.

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Analysis box by Laura Kuenssberg, political editor

Whisper it. After the economy took an absolute hammering during the pandemic, might the chancellor tomorrow actually be in a much cheerier political mood than he could have predicted?

During his Budget warm-up in the last few days, Rishi Sunak has already totted up promises of around an extra £20bn of spending, as well as announcing how some of the cash that was already promised is going to be carved up.

Hold on for a second though. On the specifics, there is no guarantee that unfreezing the wages of 2.5 million workers in England will mean they get pay rises that aren’t eroded by inflation.

The same goes for increases for workers on low pay, and cuts to universal credit will pinch too.

Having treated us all to cosy snaps of him and his Labrador, Nova, and him hard at work in his athleisure wear, Rishi Sunak wants to give the political impression that he’s a chancellor we can all be comfortable with – careful with our money, but not afraid to spend it on things that matter, who has modern Tory instincts, but won’t ditch the party’s traditions.

But remember Budget warm-ups are just that. However many announcements there have already been, however carefully the photographs of the prep have been thought through and selected, what matters is what he actually says at lunchtime on Wednesday.

What matters are the numbers – what’s in black and white – in the end.

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On the eve of his speech, Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves issued a call to the government to create “a more resilient economy and take the pressure off working people”.

She said if Labour was in power, it would “ease the burden on households, cutting VAT on domestic energy bills immediately for six months”.

“And we would not raise taxes on working people and British businesses, while online giants get away without paying their fair share,” she added.

There were no more announcements from Mr Sunak the night before his speech, but in a statement he said: “[This] Budget begins the work of preparing for a new economy post Covid.

“An economy of higher wages, higher skills, and rising productivity. Of strong public services, vibrant communities and safer streets.

“An economy fit for a new age of optimism. That is the stronger economy of the future.”

Former Conservative chancellor Philip Hammond told BBC Newscast that the government should not use higher wages as “a bung” to secure the support of low income voters.

“The instinct to send a message to business that we need to invest more capital rather than just relying on cheap labour, I think is the right instinct, I would support that,” he said.

“But I suspect there is also a bit of an instinct, which says there’s a lot of people out there who are on low wages who voted for us in 2019, perhaps for the first time, so let’s give them a bit of a bung. And that is a rather less economically sound instinct.”

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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