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Calgary Real Estate Board trains its focus on market conditions – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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That light we see in Calgary’s housing market tunnel is, unfortunately, not the end of the tunnel.

It’s yet another train, but it’s slowing down, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) Q2 2020 Quarterly Update Report.

“Calgary housing sales slowed by 35 percent compared to the previous year,” says the CREB report. “This is better than original expectations, thanks to June figures that were far stronger than initial estimates. The pullback in new listings in the second quarter caused inventories to trend down, preventing a more significant decline in prices. The second-quarter benchmark price trended down compared to the first quarter and eased by 2.3 percent compared to last year, just slightly above initial forecasted levels.”

So, yes, that’s still a train a-coming, but, “the extent of the impact may not be as severe as estimates from three months ago. Those original estimates of unemployment levels and job losses have been revised. Job losses and high unemployment rates are still expected, but the magnitude of the decline has eased,” says CREB.

“Furthermore, since May, oil prices have improved. This is not enough to change capital spending plans, but with West Texas Intermediate prices back in the $40 range, the situation has improved significantly from the low levels recorded in May.

“While the situation may look brighter than it did a few months ago, it is also important to note that challenges remain. Our local economy is still facing record-high unemployment rates, with significant job loss occurring not only in areas associated with the shutdown (e.g., accommodation and food, retail trade) but in our professional, scientific and technical services sector. Some of the jobs in areas impacted by closures will start to return as our economy re-opens, but the challenges weighing on the energy sector will likely have a lingering effect on employment.”

Any kind of market weakness and uncertainties are obviously going to pose downside risks to housing demand, especially in the upper end of the market, says CREB.

“Recovery for higher-paid positions will likely take longer than recovery in other areas of the economy. This will cause some persistent challenges for the upper end of the housing market, having a greater impact on those higher-priced homes versus product in the lower price ranges,” says the report. “Overall, we continue to expect city-wide benchmark home prices to ease by just under three percent this year and sales activity will remain weak compared to the already low levels recorded last year.”

Despite the wide range of expectations on home prices, CREB does not expect a stronger price decline in 2020 for several reasons:

• Adjustment in supply. Demand has fallen, but so have new listings and inventory levels. This is preventing significant gains in the months of supply slowing the downward price pressure.

• Support provided by lenders and government is expected to cushion the blow from COVID-19, preventing a more significant price drop this year.

“As we move into the second half of this year and into 2021, there remains significant downside risk. If jobs do not return as anticipated and the support from lenders and government ends, we could start to see a faster rise in supply relative to demand. This may cause stronger price declines in the market entering 2021.”

Calgary’s housing market cooled slightly in July from the previous month’s activity, but June was an unexpected and pleasant surprise, says Jesse Davies, founder and realtor of the Jesse Davies team at Century 21 Elevate Real Estate.

“June surpassed a lot of people’s expectations with the detached market seeing a decrease of 21 percent in active listings from this time last year, which in turn has made for a slim-pickings type of market for buyers eager to take advantage of suppressed pricing and low interest rates,” says Davies, adding there was an incentive to buy before the end of June. “The new lending rules implemented by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation on insured mortgages also contributed to the better-than-expected June stats, as buyers rushed to purchase before the July 1 deadline.

“July is trending very similar to June with total sales volume up around five percent compared to last year. The balance of the summer and fall should see similar results and a lot will depend on interest rates staying unchanged, if we experience a second wave of the virus and what unemployment levels taper off at.

“One thing to consider is the net migration and immigration to Calgary, basically coming to a standstill for the last quarter due to travel restrictions from COVID and what type of short- and long-term ramifications this will have on demand and pricing.”

Here are Calgary market stats, comparing July to June this year and July to July last year (based on figures current as of July 27 each year, courtesy of CREB).


Total market

June 2020

July 27, 2020

July 27, 2019
Sales 1,747 1,489 1,439
New listings 3,335 2,557 2,431
Median $420,000 $420,000 $418,000
Average $463,604 $463,834 $453,776

Single-family
Sales 1,092 938 881
New listings 1,892 1,397 1,441
Median $473,250 $482,500 $473,500
Average $539,708 $541,691 $528,643

Attached
Sales 428 336 311
New listings 769 609 552
Median $330,000 $329,450 $325,000
Average $361,346 $372,759 $385,624

Apartments
Sales 261 215 247
New listings 668 551 438
Median $234,900 $240,000 $249,999
Average $258,064 $266,490 $272,552

Copyright Postmedia Network Inc., 2020

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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