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Canada at crossroads on submarines as cost, need butt heads and allies press ahead

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OTTAWA — The federal government is at a crossroads on replacing Canada’s aging submarines, as cost considerations butt up against warnings about the need for such vessels and allies press ahead with their own plans.

The Royal Canadian Navy revealed in July 2021 that it had launched a long-anticipated push to replace the country’s four Victoria-class submarines, creating a special team to figure out exactly what the military needs in a new fleet.

The move came amid growing concerns about the need to start working on such a project given the age of Canada’s existing fleet and estimates that it would take at least 15 years to design and build new vessels.

Yet it also came absent a formal commitment from the Liberal government to build and operate a new submarine fleet after the Victoria-class vessels are retired in the mid-2030s — a commitment that still hasn’t been made nearly two years later.

Defence Minister Anita Anand’s spokesman on Tuesday described submarines as “one of Canada’s most strategic assets for conducting surveillance of Canadian and international waters, including the near Arctic.”

But he would not comment on whether the government is committed to replacing the Victoria-class fleet. He instead noted the government is reviewing its existing defence policy, released in 2017, to determine the military’s long-term needs.

Adam MacDonald, a former naval officer turned defence expert at Dalhousie University in Halifax, said the government is running out of time if it wants to have new submarines ready before the current ones are retired.

“Most people who really study this are basically saying there has to be a determination if you want to have a continuous submarine capability,” MacDonald said. “So you basically need a decision now or within the next year or so.”

The lack of political direction comes as the United States, Britain and Australia have put submarines at the heart of a new defence pact known as AUKUS, which aims to push back against Chinese ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region.

Those in the top ranks of the Canadian Armed Forces have repeatedly spoken about the importance of submarines.

“You’ve got somebody with an infantry background that’s advocating for submarines, so the Navy’s done something right,” chief of the defence staff Gen. Wayne Eyre said last week when asked at a conference about the military’s immediate needs.

But experts say there is no guarantee Ottawa will commit to spending the money needed to replace the Victoria-class, whose own costs and benefits have been hotly debated since they were purchased second-hand from Britain in 1998.

“I don’t think it’s a ‘for sure’ that we’re going to continue on having a submarine capability,” MacDonald said.

That’s because the Liberal government is facing other financial pressures. Those include escalating costs on other military procurements, such as the plan to build a new fleet of warships, and calls to rein in spending after nearly a decade of deficits.

“The financial environment that we find ourselves now in is increasingly precarious,” said University of Calgary defence analyst Rob Huebert, who worried the Liberals will end up “kicking the can down the road.”

“I can see all the arguments strategically for why we need subs,” Huebert said. “But even if we had a government that was committed to hard security, we have painted ourselves in such a bad corner, how do we get to it?”

Canada’s current fleet has not helped the Navy’s position. Touted as a deal when they were purchased from Britain for $750 million, they have since spent more time in dock for repairs and maintenance than at sea.

Ottawa has been forced to sink billions of dollars into the fleet over the past 20-plus years to address a series of problems and incidents including fires and faulty welding. There have also been several accidents during operations and testing.

Current and former military commanders nonetheless insist submarines are critical for defending Canada’s waterways as well as for successful military operations abroad, particularly as China and Russia rush to build their own fleets.

Describing oceans as a three-dimensional battlefield, retired vice-admiral Mark Norman said submarines are critical to knowing and controlling what is happening below the waves.

“To only worry about the surface ignores an entire layer of the problem,” he said.

“I’ve previously used the analogy of a police force trying to patrol the streets of a city, only to discover that an entire subterranean system exists that has been permitting the free movement of illicit activity without their knowledge.”

The AUKUS agreement appears to bolster such arguments, with the U.S. taking the unusual step of agreeing to share its nuclear-submarine secrets with Australia — only the second time it will have done so.

“The reality is that you’ve got a submarine arms-race developing,” Huebert said. “You’ve got submarine construction by the Chinese, the Japanese, the Americans in numbers you have not seen since just prior to the Second World War.”

Norman lamented the lack of a political commitment from the government for buying new submarines.

“I believe that’s sadly just a function of a lack of genuine interest or resolve to either accept the urgency of the problem or to use any political capital in support of a capability that no one understands.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 14, 2023.

 

Lee Berthiaume, The Canadian Press

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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