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Canada could see 60,000 COVID-19 cases a day by end of year if contact rates increase: PHAC – CBC.ca

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New infections of COVID-19 could reach 60,000 a day by the end of December if Canadians increase their current level of contact with other people, according to modelling charts prepared by the the Public Health Agency of Canada and seen by CBC News.

According to the new modelling — which is to be released tomorrow —  that number could be cut to 20,000 a day if Canadians maintain their current number of personal contacts. 

But to drive that number under 10,000 cases a day by the end of the year, Canadians would need to limit their interactions to essential activities while maintaining physical distancing and adhering to other public health guidelines.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and opposition leaders met with Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam and her deputy Dr. Howard Njoo earlier this evening to discuss the new modelling.

Tam will hold a news conference at 9 a.m. ET to formally provide detailed projections on potential infections and deaths from the novel coronavirus.

After the meeting, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole released a statement criticizing the Liberal government’s response to the pandemic.

“What struck me was that 11 months after news about the spread of COVID-19 emerged, after thousands of lives and millions of jobs have been lost, and hundreds of billions of dollars has been added to the national debt, we as a country are worse off than we were at the start of the pandemic,” he said.

“We are in this position because the government failed to give Canadians the ability to rapidly and frequently test for COVID-19, has failed to tell Canadians how they plan to deliver a vaccine and failed to be transparent with Canadians about what COVID-19 related information they are using to make decisions that affect lives and jobs.”

O’Toole said the government must deliver a plan to test, trace and isolate those who are infected, because shutting down the economy is “simply not a solution.” 

Public health orders

The national snapshot comes as Manitoba, now dealing with the highest per capita daily COVID-19 case numbers among Canadian provinces, is set to enact new orders effective Friday to limit the spread of the virus.

The public health orders will forbid people from having anyone inside their home who doesn’t live there, with limited exceptions, and prohibit businesses from selling non-essential items in stores. Large retailers are to restrict capacity at any given time to 25 per cent of their normal limit or a maximum of 250 people, whichever is lower.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford also warned Thursday that additional public health restrictions would be announced Friday for hot spots in the province.

“These measures will have to be tough in the hardest hit areas,” he said. “We have some difficult but necessary decisions to make.”

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Canada COVID surge sees 100,000 new cases in two weeks – Medical Xpress

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Canada’s second wave of COVID-19 infections has led to 100,000 new cases reported in just the last two weeks, data compiled by public broadcaster CBC showed Friday.

There has now been a total of 400,031 cases in the country of 38 million people. The illness has been blamed for 12,470 deaths.

It took just 18 days to go from 300,000 to 400,000 cases in a second wave of COVID-19 that has prompted several regions to reintroduce measures to curb its spread.

They include Quebec province cancelling Christmas plans for many people with new rules restricting holiday gatherings and Alberta looking to set up field hospitals to help treat patients.

By comparison, Canada did not cross the threshold of 100,000 infections until June, three months after its first COVID-19 cases were reported.

In the past month, the average number of new daily cases has doubled to about 6,000.

Almost 75,000 people have been tested for the illness each day with 7.4 percent having tested positive.

An average of 2,377 Canadians with severe infections have also been hospitalised each day, 466 of whom are being treated in intensive care units.

Both community transmission and outbreaks are contributing to the spread, Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam said in a statement.

She noted that cases are increasing among , with those aged 80 years and older currently having the highest incidence rate.

More and larger outbreaks are occurring in long-term care homes and hospitals while also spreading to and other .

“These developments are deeply concerning as they put countless Canadians at risk of life-threatening illness, cause serious disruptions to and present significant challenges for areas not adequately equipped to manage complex medical emergencies,” Tam said.


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Canada COVID surge sees 100,000 new cases in two weeks (2020, December 5)
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More city-level COVID-19 data would jeopardize public health, BC provincial health agency says – Nanaimo News Bulletin

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The health of B.C. residents would be jeopardized if it provided more data about how COVID-19 was affecting individual cities, according to the provincial health agency responsible for the BC Centre for Disease Control.

The mayors of several Fraser Valley municipalities have written the province, saying better city-level data would help municipalities better respond to the pandemic.

But the Provincial Health Services Authority has justified redacting city-specific data in documents released to The News by saying the information could threaten someone’s “safety or mental or physical health” if it was made public. The province also suggests individual’s privacy could be compromised by the release of city-level data – even for those municipalities with hundreds of cases.

Last month, The News filed a freedom of information request more granular data on how COVID-19 is affecting different parts of Abbotsford and the Lower Mainland. Currently, the province only provides daily data on the B.C.’s six provincial health authorities and weekly data on 16 “Health Service Delivery Areas,” most of which span multiple cities and are home to hundreds of thousands of people

The province responded to The News’s request with figures for individual Local Health Areas – which roughly correspond to the boundaries of Abbotsford and hundreds of other B.C. cities and towns. But the information only includes monthly data for August and September. The BC CDC has also released community-level figures for October. But the province has balked at releasing more information about how COVID-19, despite pleas by politicians and journalists who have asked for more comprehensive and timely city-level data.

Recently, the mayors of several Lower Mainland municipalities jointly wrote a letter to the province saying better city-level data would help.

“A better understanding of community transmission levels will help us make informed decisions regarding our facilities and the associated safety plans,” they wrote in a letter to Premier John Horgan. “More detailed local COVID-19 data will also guide our decision-making and resource allocation processes while working with local businesses and community organizations as they work to stay safe, open and economically viable.”

The Kootenay East Regional District made a similar plea to Interior Health. That health authority responded that they are following the provincial rules for reporting COVID-19 cases.

“As this is a provincial approach to reporting, I have asked that our Medical health Officers and Epidemiology team raise this issue with their provincial counterparts and colleagues in other health authorities for further discussion,” chief medical health officer Dr. Albert de Villiers wrote.

So far the province has deemed that releasing any more detailed information would jeopardize the health of some people. It hasn’t clarified how, exactly, releasing any municipal information would hurt people.

In the document released to The News, officials redacted the number of cases confirmed in each Local Health Area during two two-week time periods in September and October. Officials cited two sections of British Columbia’s Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacty Act for the redactions. The PHSA declared that the redactions were necessary because the release of the figures would “be an unreasonable invasion of a third party’s personal privacy” and/or “would be harmful to a third party’s personal privacy.”

The News has asked the Office of the Information and Privacy Commissioner to review the redactions.

It’s not clear why information cannot be released for at least some of the Local Health Areas. Regular data is already released on a weekly basis for Richmond and Vancouver – the only two municipalities that are also considered Health Service Delivery Areas. The province already releases data regularly for such HSDAs, the size and population of which very vary greatly.

While the BC CDC releases data on the number of people in the Northeast health region, where fewer than 80,000 people live, it says privacy and safety concerns prohibit it from providing the same information for Surrey, where more than half-a-million people live.

Do you have something to add to this story, or something else we should report on? Email:
tolsen@abbynews.com


@ty_olsen
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The latest numbers on COVID-19 in Canada for Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020 – moosejawtoday.com

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The latest numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Canada as of 4:00 a.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020.

There are 402,569 confirmed cases in Canada.

_ Canada: 402,569 confirmed cases (69,977 active, 320,096 resolved, 12,496 deaths).*The total case count includes 13 confirmed cases among repatriated travellers.

There were 6,300 new cases Friday from 86,410 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 7.3 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 43,505 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 6,215.

There were 89 new reported deaths Friday. Over the past seven days there have been a total of 602 new reported deaths. The seven-day rolling average of new reported deaths is 86. The seven-day rolling average of the death rate is 0.23 per 100,000 people. The overall death rate is 33.24 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 11,826,099 tests completed.

_ Newfoundland and Labrador: 343 confirmed cases (27 active, 312 resolved, four deaths).

There were three new cases Friday from 304 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 0.99 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 12 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is two.

There have been no deaths reported over the past week. The overall death rate is 0.77 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 63,887 tests completed.

_ Prince Edward Island: 73 confirmed cases (five active, 68 resolved, zero deaths).

There were zero new cases Friday from 425 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 0.0 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of three new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is zero.

There have been no deaths reported over the past week. The overall death rate is zero per 100,000 people. 

There have been 62,046 tests completed.

_ Nova Scotia: 1,358 confirmed cases (117 active, 1,176 resolved, 65 deaths).

There were 15 new cases Friday from 1,014 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 1.5 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 92 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 13.

There have been no deaths reported over the past week. The overall death rate is 6.69 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 151,573 tests completed.

_ New Brunswick: 528 confirmed cases (111 active, 410 resolved, seven deaths).

There were eight new cases Friday from 727 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 1.1 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 51 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is seven.

There have been no deaths reported over the past week. The overall death rate is 0.9 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 104,518 tests completed.

_ Quebec: 147,877 confirmed cases (13,145 active, 127,549 resolved, 7,183 deaths).

There were 1,345 new cases Friday from 10,981 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 12 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 9,714 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 1,388.

There were 28 new reported deaths Friday. Over the past seven days there have been a total of 199 new reported deaths. The seven-day rolling average of new reported deaths is 28. The seven-day rolling average of the death rate is 0.34 per 100,000 people. The overall death rate is 84.66 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 2,226,791 tests completed.

_ Ontario: 123,526 confirmed cases (14,997 active, 104,792 resolved, 3,737 deaths).

There were 1,780 new cases Friday from 54,170 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 3.3 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 12,310 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 1,759.

There were 25 new reported deaths Friday. Over the past seven days there have been a total of 142 new reported deaths. The seven-day rolling average of new reported deaths is 20. The seven-day rolling average of the death rate is 0.14 per 100,000 people. The overall death rate is 25.65 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 6,251,327 tests completed.

_ Manitoba: 18,069 confirmed cases (9,172 active, 8,535 resolved, 362 deaths).

There were 318 new cases Friday from 3,075 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 10 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 2,437 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 348.

There were nine new reported deaths Friday. Over the past seven days there have been a total of 82 new reported deaths. The seven-day rolling average of new reported deaths is 12. The seven-day rolling average of the death rate is 0.86 per 100,000 people. The overall death rate is 26.43 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 357,524 tests completed.

_ Saskatchewan: 9,527 confirmed cases (4,116 active, 5,356 resolved, 55 deaths).

There were 283 new cases Friday from 2,048 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 14 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 1,836 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 262.

There was one new reported death Friday. Over the past seven days there have been a total of 11 new reported deaths. The seven-day rolling average of new reported deaths is two. The seven-day rolling average of the death rate is 0.13 per 100,000 people. The overall death rate is 4.68 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 267,348 tests completed.

_ Alberta: 64,851 confirmed cases (18,243 active, 46,018 resolved, 590 deaths).

There were 1,828 new cases Friday from 6,850 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 27 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 11,746 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 1,678.

There were 15 new reported deaths Friday. Over the past seven days there have been a total of 71 new reported deaths. The seven-day rolling average of new reported deaths is 10. The seven-day rolling average of the death rate is 0.23 per 100,000 people. The overall death rate is 13.5 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 1,502,472 tests completed.

_ British Columbia: 36,132 confirmed cases (9,982 active, 25,658 resolved, 492 deaths).

There were 711 new cases Friday from 6,753 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 11 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 5,248 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 750.

There were 11 new reported deaths Friday. Over the past seven days there have been a total of 97 new reported deaths. The seven-day rolling average of new reported deaths is 14. The seven-day rolling average of the death rate is 0.27 per 100,000 people. The overall death rate is 9.7 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 822,120 tests completed.

_ Yukon: 51 confirmed cases (11 active, 39 resolved, one deaths).

There was one new case Friday from 34 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 2.9 per cent. Over the past seven days, there has been nine new case. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is one.

There have been no deaths reported over the past week. The overall death rate is 2.45 per 100,000 people. 

There have been 5,522 tests completed.

_ Northwest Territories: 15 confirmed cases (zero active, 15 resolved, zero deaths).

There were zero new cases Friday from 29 completed tests, for a positivity rate of 0.0 per cent. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of zero new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is zero.

There have been no deaths reported over the past week. The overall death rate is zero per 100,000 people. 

There have been 6,511 tests completed.

_ Nunavut: 206 confirmed cases (51 active, 155 resolved, zero deaths).

There were eight new cases Friday. Over the past seven days, there have been a total of 47 new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is seven.

There have been no deaths reported over the past week. The overall death rate is zero per 100,000 people. 

There have been 4,384 tests completed.

This report was automatically generated by The Canadian Press Digital Data Desk and was first published Dec. 5, 2020.

The Canadian Press

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