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Canada is flattening the coronavirus curve. That’s ‘good news,’ expert explains – Global News

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Canadians have closed schools and shut down large parts of the economy to deal with the threat of the novel coronavirus.

Encouragingly, public health experts say that a graph of positive tests shows that the sacrifice is working.

“This is a good-news graph,” says Steven Hoffman of York University.

“The good news is that it’s not a straight line and that it’s actually curving downwards, which is exactly what we would want to see. These lines don’t show that the outbreak is ending. The number of cases might be going up. It’s just not going up as fast as we would have expected in the absence of intervention.”

The University of Toronto’s Ashleigh Tuite agrees.

“Overall, it’s a positive graph,” she says. “All the provinces are bending — you want them to be as flat as possible. They are all headed in the right direction, which is a positive sign.”

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The graph above will continue to be updated as new data becomes available.

Epidemiologists use graphs like this in part to see how long it takes infections to double — the longer the period, the better.

“That’s just a convenient way to think about it: there’s nothing special about doubling,” Hoffman says.

“You could also say how many days it it is before it gets 10 times bigger. It’s a helpful measure of the pace of what we’re trying to slow down. At this point, our focus is not on stopping the spread of an outbreak but slowing down how fast it spreads.”






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Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario health official says province has ‘bent the curve’ but more work must be done


Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario health official says province has ‘bent the curve’ but more work must be done

The graph below is identical to the graph above, except for the addition of reference lines. These lines allow you to compare provincial trends against common doubling rates.

Doubling every two days, the dotted line on the left-hand side of the graph, would be a “very bad sign,” Hoffman says.

“The average we’re seeing in the world is four and a half to five days per doubling. If we could get it down to a doubling every week or so, that would be better than the rest of the world and totally change the severity of the outbreak in a very good way.”

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Slowing the outbreak is crucial because it gives the medical system time to cope. If the number of cases becomes unmanageable at a given time, doctors are forced to make harsh choices.

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“The scary thing becomes when the curve goes above the system capacity because that’s when doctors have to start making resource allocation decisions, which are probably among the very worst decisions that anyone could ever have to make,” Hoffman says.


READ MORE:
One will live, one will die — How Canada is preparing for tough coronavirus choices

Urgently, we need to measure the coronavirus as a problem, but every way we have to measure it has to be seen with an understanding of its flaws.

Daily totals of cases (used in the charts above) seem like the most obvious and up-to-date number to look at. As a way of measuring the scale of the problem, though, these are distorted by the uneven availability of tests and the fact that some provinces test much more than others.

Deaths and hospitalizations are in some ways better but can reflect infections that happened three or four weeks ago.

The graph below shows the growth trend of COVID-19 deaths for each province with more than 30 deaths due to the illness.

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The numbers are crucial because we have few other tools to answer life-and-death questions, among them: is the huge dislocation caused by largely shutting down society helping to slow the virus, and if so, to what extent? If we were to reopen the economy, how would we know if that was the right decision?

A sharp rise in positive cases could show that the problem is getting worse — or that our knowledge about it is getting better.

“Normally, when you test more, you’re going to find more cases,” says the University of Toronto’s Colin Furness.

“It would be even better if we tested more and didn’t. All you’re doing is saying: ‘There’s an iceberg out there.’ Some portion of the iceberg is visible, and we are measuring that. That doesn’t say anything about the iceberg — it simply quantifies what you can already see.”






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Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario hits first COVID-19 testing target, says premier


Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario hits first COVID-19 testing target, says premier

If we had the resources, Tuite says, we would ideally test people in a broad cross-section of society in a system somewhat like jury duty.

Quebec has suffered more than the rest of Canada because of “bad luck,” Furness says.

“They got some super-spreading, clearly. They got a big dose of virus-laden people. Sometimes, you only need a couple of people with lots of contact,” he says.

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“Their March break was a week early. The point at which, Canada-wide, we started closing schools and so forth, was a week too late for Quebec. If they’d just done it a week earlier, and if Ontario had done its stuff a week earlier — days matter.”

Quebec also tested more extensively, Tuite explains.

“If you look at the first five days since their 100th confirmed case, they have this very, very rapid growth in cases, and what that reflects is the fact that early on, they had a really large increase in testing that they were doing in their population. That gets to the messiness of the data,” she says.


READ MORE:
Blaine Higgs suggests N.B. could be first province to reopen as no coronavirus cases reported Thursday

The Maritimes, on the other hand, have had a gentler time of it, at least so far.

“When you look at the Atlantic provinces — New Brunswick, P.E.I. — they didn’t have bad luck, and part of that is that they don’t have big international airports, so there’s less opportunity to have bad luck, and they started closing stuff down when Ontario started closing stuff down,” Furness says. “Lo and behold, they’re kind of done. The spread never really happened.”

At what point will the data tell us that can we start to lift restrictions? All the experts Global News talked to said there wasn’t a clear standard.

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“The reality is that it’s going to be trial and error, and I don’t think that putting a timeline on it is helpful,” Tuite says.

“If you look at how rapidly the situation has changed — every week feels like a month, or longer, in terms of how things change. Our understanding changes of where we are in the epidemic curve.”


The charts above are logarithmic charts.

In a traditional chart, like the one below, the vertical axis is divided evenly: 10, 20, 30. In a logarithmic chart, the vertical axis accelerates by a factor of 10: 10, 100, 1,000 and so forth. Logarithmic charts show change better, but you have to bear the distortion in mind.

You can see charts like this for dozens of countries here.

Here is what a more traditional chart of known infections looks like:

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Loblaw ramps up efforts to capture more customers as it reports profit up in Q3

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Loblaw had a busy third quarter as it ramped up efforts to capture more deal-seeking shoppers, pharmacy customers and immigrant communities, while growing its store footprint and planning for even more expansion in 2025.

President and chief executive officer Per Bank acknowledged the grocer has “done a lot” during his first year as chief executive.

“Now we’re going to perfect what we have done,” he said on an earnings conference call with analysts.

“We have a lot on our plate, and we’re going to perfect it.”

The company’s profit for the quarter rose year-over-year to $777 million or $2.53 per diluted share, up from $621 million or $1.95, boosted by the reversal of a charge at its President’s Choice Bank after a Federal Court of Appeal decision.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $18.54 billion, up from $18.27 billion a year earlier.

Amid the ongoing shift to discount stores by cash-strapped shoppers, Bank said No Frills and Maxi continued to outperform full-service stores.

Loblaw said it opened 25 new No Frills and Maxi stores during the quarter.

Six of these stores were the new small-format No Frills stores, said chief financial officer Richard Dufresne on the call.

“While it’s still early days, we are pleased with customer reactions and overall performance,” he said.

The company also launched a pilot program during the quarter trialling an ultra-discount No Name store format meant to offer savings beyond even its ubiquitous No Frills banner, with two stores opening during the third quarter and another recently opened.

“If it works, we will (add more). If not, we will pivot, take the learnings and apply them to our discount program,” Bank said.

Loblaw recently opened new T&T stores in Ontario and Quebec, and is beginning the banner’s expansion into the U.S. next month.

With Canada’s first-generation immigrant population continuing to grow, the company is also introducing new multicultural products, including offering more private label T&T products at the company’s other stores, said Bank.

Despite the Canadian government’s decision to slow immigration, Dufresne said there’s still growth ahead.

“While it may slow a bit, we still believe that it’s going to grow. And that’s a tailwind that is very positive for grocery players like us,” he said.

The company is also trying to boost food sales at Shoppers Drug Mart, said Bank. The shift toward discount has had a slight impact on food sales there, he said, so Loblaw is responding by lowering prices on several hundred products to encourage more people to shop for food at the pharmacy banner.

Loblaw is continuing its growth into the fourth quarter, with plans to add another 20 new Maxi and No Frills stores, mainly new builds, said Dufresne.

“For the full year 2024, we expect to have opened 50 new stores and converted an additional 42 stores,” he said.

Bank said the company plans to open even more new stores than in 2024 and is opening a new distribution centre in the first quarter.

He acknowledged that the company’s focus on opening more stores will put some pressure on its earnings in the short term.

“I think it’s important to say that we are planning for the long term, not the short term,” he said.

Part of that longer-term strategy is the company’s decision to no longer sell gaming consoles, games and certain electronics like laptops, computers and TVs. Dufresne said those products don’t drive shoppers’ baskets and have an “extremely low margin.”

“More than 80 per cent of the transactions that are on electronics, customers come in and just buy that item and leave. So it’s not good for our business,” he said. “That’s why we’re deciding to exit it.”

The decision to exit electronics, as well as the company’s move to eliminate multi-buy promotions in its discount stores, affect sales in the short term, Dufresne acknowledged.

“Our focus is on adding square footage. So if we have the right business model and that works and resonates with customers, if we just replicate it with new stores, long term, we win. So that’s how we’re thinking about this,” said Dufresne.

The company said that based on the year-to-date investments in its store network and distribution centres, it now expects to invest a net amount of $1.9 billion compared with earlier expectations for $1.8 billion.

Same-store sales at Loblaw’s food stores were up 0.5 per cent,compared with 4.5 per cent last year. After excluding the unfavourable impact of the timing of Thanksgiving, which fell in a different quarter this year, the company said food same-store sales were up about 1.3 per cent.

Drug retail same-store sales were up 2.9 per cent as pharmacy and health-care services same-store sales rose 6.3 per cent, but front store same-store sales fell 0.5 per cent.

In its outlook, the company raised its guidance for full-year adjusted net earnings per common share growth to low double-digits compared with earlier expectations for high single-digits.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L)



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Suncor to return all excess cash to shareholders after hitting debt target early

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Efforts to streamline operations have helped Suncor Energy Inc. hit its debt target, triggering a commitment to pay out 100 per cent of excess funds to shareholders.

The oil and gas giant has been working to make efficiency improvements across its sprawling network as it shifts focus to incremental gains over pricey expansion projects.

The efforts yielded upstream production of 829,000 barrels per day to mark its best third quarter ever, its highest ever refining throughput of 488,000 barrels per day and highest ever refined sales at 612,000 barrels per day.

“This is now back to back to back quarterly records,” said chief executive Rich Kruger on an earnings call Wednesday.

Suncor’s efforts to ease bottlenecks and cost improvements include everything from new maintenance techniques to its shift to bigger, autonomous trucks. They include spending $1 million to increase its base plant capacity to 100,000 barrels a day from 65,000, and spending $500,000 to increase Firebag production by between 6,000 and 10,000 barrels a day, with both creating upwards of $100 million of additional free funds flow per year, said Kruger.

The efforts also include everything down to the material in the totes it uses to receive additives in, said Dave Oldreive, executive vice-president of downstream.

“It sounds like a small thing. It’s worth $50,000 a year, not a big deal in the big scheme of things, but you add those up, we get 15,000 people in this company doing that, we’re going to continue to drive improvements.”

The higher production helped it earn $2.02 billion in its third quarter, up from $1.54 billion a year earlier.

It also helped Suncor reduce its debt by more than $1.4 billion in the quarter to achieve its net debt target of $8 billion ahead of many external forecasts, the company said. Hitting that triggered its commitment to pay out 100 per cent of excess funds to shareholders, up from 50 per cent at the start of the year.

Suncor returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in the quarter through share buybacks and dividends, while it boosted its dividend by five per cent to 57 cents per share.

The company is also tracking above the high end of its guidance on several measures so far in the fourth quarter, said Kruger, while the challenge next year will be to keep the improvements coming.

“What will be very key for us in 2025 too is holding the gains of 2024. We’ve made a lot of progress on cost, discipline, asset reliability and things. We’re trying to be sure whether we institutionalize those and don’t slip back at all.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SU)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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In the news today: Justin Trudeau and Canada criticized by Donald Trump’s appointees

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Here is a roundup of stories from The Canadian Press designed to bring you up to speed…

Trump’s appointees have criticized Trudeau, warned of border issues with Canada

Donald Trump’s second administration is starting to take shape, and many of the people landing top jobs have been critical of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and security at Canada’s border. Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, says there are not many friends to Canada in Trump’s camp yet. The president-elect tapped Mike Waltz to be national security adviser amid increasing geopolitical instability. Waltz has repeatedly slammed Trudeau on social media for his handling of issues related to China and recently said Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was going to send Trudeau packing in the next Canadian election. New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, Trump’s choice for ambassador to the United Nations, has expressed concerns on social media about security at the Canadian border.

Chrystia Freeland says carbon rebate for small businesses will be tax-free

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the Canada carbon rebate for small businesses will be tax-free. In a statement posted to X late Tuesday, Freeland clarified the parameters of the program after an advocacy group for small business raised concerns that the rebate would be a taxable benefit. Dan Kelly, president and CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, posted on X soon after that post that he had received a call from Freeland, who offered “assurance” that the rebate would be tax-free. In a letter to Freeland Nov. 6, the CFIB said it had initially been told by the Canada Revenue Agency the rebate would be tax-free, but was subsequently told by the Finance Department that the rebate was actually taxable. The Canada carbon rebate for small businesses was a measure introduced in this year’s federal budget, in which $2.5 billion of carbon price revenue would be paid back to some 600,000 small and medium-sized businesses.

Here’s what else we’re watching…

Warning to avoid sick birds amid rise of avian flu

Encounters with sick or dead birds are raising concerns after B.C.’s Health Ministry said the first suspected human case of bird flu contracted in Canada had been detected in the province. Provincial health officer Doctor Bonnie Henry says it’s very likely the teenage patient was infected by exposure to a sick animal or something in the environment, but it’s a “real possibility” that the source is never determined. Henry says the virus is circulating in wild foul, including geese, and is advising that people avoid contact with any sick or dead birds. She says human-to-human transmission is uncommon, but people may be infected by inhaling the virus or in droplets that get into the eyes.

Mainstream porn’s ascent, and the price women pay

When legal scholar Elaine Craig started researching pornography, she knew little about websites such as Pornhub or xHamster — and she did not anticipate that the harsh scenes she would view would at times force her to step away. Four years later, the Dalhousie University law professor has published a book that portrays in graphic detail the rise of ubiquitous free porn, concluding it is causing harm to the “sexual integrity” of girls, women and the community at large. The 386-page volume, titled “Mainstreaming Porn” (McGill-Queen’s University Press), begins by outlining how porn-streaming firms claim to create “safe spaces” for adults to view “consensual, perfectly legal sex,” as their moderators — both automated and human — keep depictions of illegal acts off the sites. But as the 49-year-old professor worked through the topic, she came to question these claims. She says depictions of sex that find their way onto the platforms are far from benign.

Atwood weighs in on U.S. election at Calgary forum

Margaret Atwood is telling people not to be afraid after last week’s U.S. election, which delivered the Republicans’ Donald Trump another White House win. The renowned Canadian author says it’s not because something horrible isn’t happening, but because fear makes people feeble. The author of “The Handmaid’s Tale” has been called prescient, but she says she had no prediction for how the American vote would go. Many have drawn parallels between that 1985 dystopian novel, set in a totalitarian state where women are treated as property, and the recent rollback of reproductive rights south of the border. Atwood says the ideas for that book were inspired by things that were already happening, or the religious right was already discussing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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