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Canada quietly prepares for the possible challenges of a Biden presidency – CBC.ca

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Joe Biden dropped in on Ottawa back in December 2016 — just a month before becoming the former U.S. vice president — to salute a Canadian-American relationship that would soon be tested by Donald Trump.

“The partnership between Canada and the United States is among the most robust, most complex and most important in the world,” Biden told premiers and Indigenous leaders as his host, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, sat by his side. “We are deeply interconnected in every way. Our people. Our economy. Our environments.”

Those were reassuring words coming from a man who knows Canada well, whose personal and professional connections to this country are deep — and who could very well be the president-elect of the United States next week.

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and then-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrive at a state dinner in Ottawa on Dec. 8, 2016. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)

The family of Biden’s first wife came from Canada; they visited often before she was killed, along with their young daughter, in a horrifying traffic accident in 1972.

At a dinner party during that same December visit four years ago, Biden said his sons wanted to be Mounties when they grew up.

“We are more like family than allies,” he said at the dinner. “At least, that’s the way the vast majority of Americans feel about Canada and Canadians, and I hope you feel that way about us as well.”

Even Biden’s choice for running mate on the 2020 Democratic ticket has strong Canadian ties. Sen. Kamala Harris spent her high school years in Montreal, where her mother was a professor at McGill University.

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) accepts the Democratic vice presidential nomination on August 19, 2020. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Harmony … up to a point

So, would a Biden win be good for Canada?

Observers say harmony would replace at least some of the discord of the past four years under President Trump — who deployed tariffs, insults and threats when dealing with his country’s largest trading partner.

“There are a number of policy areas in which a Biden administration would be much closer to Canada,” said former Trudeau foreign policy advisor Roland Paris, now a professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs.

“Climate change, standing up for allies, defending democracy and human rights at home and abroad … the list goes on.”

There’s a ‘but’, of course.

“It’s also true that Joe Biden has run on a nationalist economic agenda and that has to be a concern in Ottawa,” Paris said.

Start with the slogans Trudeau and Biden chose for their pandemic economic recovery plans. Trudeau’s is “build back better.” Biden’s is “build back America better.”

Protectionist tendencies 

Biden’s platform doesn’t see Canada in the same light the candidate did four years ago.

Biden’s recovery plan includes “Buy American” measures in its $400 billion procurement strategy and commits to attracting new investment and returning manufacturing supply chains to the United States.

He also would rescind federal approval for the $8 billion Keystone XL pipeline project — still seen by many Canadians as a critical support for an energy sector in trouble. And despite his 36 years in the Senate, including two stints as chair of the powerful foreign affairs committee, Biden has never shown any inclination to solve the softwood lumber problem — the biggest, longest-running bilateral trade dispute between the two countries.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s reliance on tariffs to correct what he sees as trade imbalances has made the Canada-U.S. relationship less certain. (Alex Brandon/AP Photo)

It all represents a threat to the trading partnership — not the kind of threat that Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum represented, but one that still will require vigilance on the federal government’s part to protect Canada’s access to the U.S. market.

Democrats are, by tradition and inclination, more protectionist than Republicans because of their strong ties to the labour movement and a political base highly concentrated in urban America.

Ottawa braces for a sweep

Paris said the Trudeau government will have to be nimble in protecting Canada’s interests — especially if the Democrats also gain control of the Senate on Tuesday.

“I think there is likely to be strong support if that happens for a new Buy America approach by a Biden administration,” he said. “It points to the importance of Canada redoubling its efforts to reach out to politicians at all levels of government.”

Canada has been preparing for the possibility of a Democratic sweep. Trudeau spoke this week to his ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, and the 13 Canadian consul-generals across the country.

One Canadian official, speaking on background, said the Biden and Harris connections to Canada have been “overblown” by the media.

But there are other ties. Biden’s campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, worked with Liberal operatives in advance of the 2015 Canadian election. Susan Rice, former national security adviser to Barack Obama, is married to a Canadian and also has close ties to both Biden and the Trudeau team.

Canadian officials have been renewing their contacts with American policy makers, emphasizing a shared commitment to reducing climate-changing emissions and promoting a coordinated North American response to the pandemic — including cooperation on vaccine research and the production of personal protective equipment.

“Joe Biden is a known commodity,” said Peter Boehm, a long-serving Canadian diplomat before his appointment to the Senate. “He knows the files. He has a long track record from his time in the Senate and vice-president, so it won’t be a steep learning curve if he becomes President Biden.”

Trudeau and his team are not taking sides ahead of Tuesday’s results. And even if Biden wins, his personal connections to Trudeau and Canada guarantee nothing as far as the bilateral relationship is concerned.

He’ll still be paid in U.S. dollars to defend U.S. interests — no matter how close his ties to this country might be.

WATCH: How a Biden presidency might affect Canada

If Joe Biden wins the U.S. presidential election, Canadians could feel the impact in areas like energy, trade and defence. 6:42

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Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people: Here's where they all came from – CBC.ca

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Alberta smashed population-growth records in the past year, mainly due to people moving to the province from across Canada and around the world.

The province’s population surged to just over 4.8 million as of Jan. 1, according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier, which marks — by far — the largest annual increase on record.

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Alberta also broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.

“This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” Statistics Canada said in a release.


Most of the interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia.

Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.


All told, interprovincial migration accounted for 27 per cent of Alberta’s population growth over the past year.

That put it just ahead of permanent immigration, which accounted for 26 per cent, and well ahead of natural population increase (more births than deaths), which accounted for eight per cent.

The largest component, however, was temporary international migration.

Non-permanent residents from other countries accounted for 39 per cent of the province’s population growth in the past year, reflecting a national trend.


Canada’s population reached 40,769,890 on Jan. 1, according to Statistics Canada estimates, which is up 3.2 per cent from a year ago.

“Most of Canada’s 3.2-per-cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration in 2023,” Statistics Canada noted.

“Without temporary immigration, that is, relying solely on permanent immigration and natural increase (births minus deaths), Canada’s population growth would have been almost three times less (1.2 per cent).”

Alberta’s population, meanwhile, grew by 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta now represents 11.8 per cent of the country’s population, its largest proportion on record. 

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Why Canada's record population growth is helping – and hurting – the economy – CTV News

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Canada has recorded the fastest population growth in 66 years, increasing by 1.3 million people, or 3.2 per cent, in 2023, according to a new report from Statistics Canada.

The country has not seen such growth since 1957, when the spike was attributed to the baby boom and an influx of immigrants fleeing Hungary.

The vast majority of Canada’s growth last year was due to immigration, with temporary residents — which includes foreign workers and international students — making up the largest proportion of newcomers.

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“We need people coming to Canada to help with our economy,” says Matti Siemiatycki, a professor of planning at the University of Toronto. “There are many jobs and professions where there are vacancies, and that is having an impact, whether in the healthcare sector or trades and construction sector.”

Siemiatycki adds immigrants also bring “ingenuity… resources… and culture” to Canada.

Newcomers are relied on to help keep pace with Canada’s aging population and declining fertility rates, but the influx also presents a challenge for a country struggling to build the homes and infrastructure needed for immigrants.

“It’s an incredibly large shock for the economic system to absorb because of just the sheer number of people coming into the country in a short period of time,” says Robert Kavcic. a senior economist and director with BMO Capital Markets.

“The reality is population can grow extremely fast, but the supply side of the economy like housing and service infrastructure, think health care and schools, can only catch up at a really gradual pace,” Kavcic says. “So there is a mismatch right now.”

The impact of that mismatch can most acutely be seen in the cost of rent, services and housing.

In December, Kavcic wrote in a note that Canada needs to build 170,000 new housing units every three months to keep up with population growth, noting the industry is struggling to complete 220,000 units in a full year.

To address this, Ottawa has announced plans to cap the number of new temporary residents while also reducing the number of international student visas, a move economists say could offer some relief when it comes to housing and the cost of living.

“The arithmetic on the caps actual works relatively well because it would take us back down to 1 per cent population growth which we have been used to over the last decade and which is more or less absorbable by the economy,” Kavcic says. “The question is whether or not we see policy makers follow through and hit those numbers.”

Economists believe these changes could help ease inflationary pressures and may make a Bank of Canada rate cut more likely, but could also lead to slower GDP growth.

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Canada’s population hits 41M months after breaking 40M threshold – Global News

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Nine months after reaching a population of 40 million, Canada has cracked a new threshold.

As of Wednesday morning, it’s estimated 41 million people now call the country home, according to Statistics Canada’s live population tracker.

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The speed at which Canada’s population is growing was also reflected in new data released Wednesday by the federal agency: between Jan. 1 2023 and Jan. 1 2024, Canada added 1,271,872 inhabitants, a 3.2 per cent growth rate — the highest since 1957.

Most of Canada’s 3.2 per cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration. Without it, Canada’s population growth would have been 1.2 per cent, Statistics Canada said.


Click to play video: 'Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population'

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Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population


From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023, Canada’s population increased by 241,494 people (0.6 per cent), the highest rate of growth in a fourth quarter since 1956.

Usha George, a professor at the Toronto Metropolitan Centre for Immigration and Settlement at Toronto Metropolitan University, told Global News in June a booming population can benefit the economy.

“It is not the bodies we are bringing in; these are bodies that fill in the empty spaces in the labour market,” she said.

“They bring a very-high level of skills.”


Click to play video: 'Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan'

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Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan


However, Ottawa has recently sought to ease the flow of temporary immigration in a bid to ease cost-of-living woes.


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Immigration Minister Marc Miller said on March 21 Ottawa would set targets for temporary residents allowed into Canada to ensure “sustainable” growth in the number of temporary residents entering the nation.

The next day, BMO economist Robert Kavcic in a note to clients the new limits will have a positive impact on Canada’s rental market and overall housing crisis.

“We’ve been firm in our argument that Canada has had an excess demand problem in housing, and this is maybe the clearest example,” Kavcic said.

“Non-permanent resident inflows, on net, have swelled to about 800K in the latest year, with few checks and balances in place, putting tremendous stress on housing supply and infrastructure.”

Alberta gains, Ontario loses: A look at Canadian migration in 2023

If Alberta is truly calling, then it appears more Canadians are choosing to answer.

Putting the pun on the provincial government’s attraction campaign aside, Canada’s wild rose country saw the largest net gain in interprovincial migration in 2023, Statistics Canada said in Wednesday’s report.


Click to play video: 'Is Alberta ready for population growth?'

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Is Alberta ready for population growth?


The agency said 55,107 Canadians moved to Alberta last year, which was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data become available in 1972.

“Alberta has been recording gains in population from interprovincial migration since 2022, a reverse of the trend seen from 2016 to 2021, when more people left the province than arrived from other parts of Canada,” Statistics Canada said.

“Approximately 333,000 Canadians moved from one province or territory to another in 2023, the second-highest number recorded since the 1990s and the third straight year that interprovincial migration topped 300,000.”

Meanwhile, British Columbia had 8,624 more residents move out than in in 2023, meaning net interprovincial migration was negative for the first time since 2012, Statistics Canada said.

In general, the largest migration flows for British Columbia and Alberta are with each other, and most of the net loss from British Columbia in 2023 was to Alberta, it added.


Click to play video: '‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population'

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‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population


It also seems that good things may no longer be growing in Ontario; Canada’s most populous province lost 36,197 people to other regions in 2023, the biggest regional loss in 2023, Statistics Canada said.

That followed a loss of 38,816 people in 2022; the only other times a province has lost more than 35,000 people due to migration to other parts of Canada occurred in Quebec in 1977 and 1978.

Alberta aside, net interprovincial migration was also up in Nova Scotia (+6,169 people), New Brunswick (+4,790) and Prince Edward Island (+818), although all three Maritime provinces gained fewer interprovincial migrants in 2023 than in the two previous years, Statistics Canada said.

— with files from Uday Rana and Sean Previl

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