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Canada's economic growth seen outpacing U.S. as virus containment pays off – Reuters Canada

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TORONTO (Reuters) – A staggered reopening from lockdowns, supported by fiscal stimulus, is likely paying off for Canada’s economy, with activity forecast to rebound in the current quarter twice as fast as in the United States, its biggest trading partner by far.

FILE PHOTO: A woman shops in the Eaton Centre shopping mall, as the provincial phase 2 of reopening from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) restrictions begins in Toronto, Ontario, Canada June 24, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File Photo/File Photo

Canada’s economy is set to grow at an annualized rate of 36% in the third quarter, compared to 20% for the United States, the average forecasts of Canada’s six largest banks showed. That reflects some catch-up for Canada after an estimated deeper slump in the second quarter, but also greater success at controlling the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

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The number of daily new cases in Canada has slowed to less than 400, using a 7-day moving average, from about 1,800 at its peak in May, according to Canada’s Public Health Agency. A spike in U.S. infections last month led to some states making a U-turn on reopening their economies.

Helped by a surge in employment, surging housing sales and gains in credit card spending, Canadian economic activity recovered in July to about 95% of pre-pandemic levels, BMO Capital Markets estimated.

Signs of a fast start to economic recovery could be welcomed by credit rating agencies, after Canada was stripped in June of one of its triple-A ratings by Fitch.

It could also be welcome news for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government after the resignation of the country’s finance minister on Monday amid friction over pandemic aid spending.

“The phased reopening of the Canadian economy, combined with its lower starting point due to stricter public health measures, will mean a more vigorous bounce-back in Canada,” said Matthieu Arseneau, deputy chief economist at National Bank Financial.

Since May, Canada’s provinces have been reopening their economies in stages. To bridge the crisis, Ottawa has announced more than C$300 billion, or about 14% of gross domestic product, in stimulus measures, including wage subsidies and income support.

“The extraordinary amount of fiscal support that has been put in place has laid the foundation for the recovery that we’re starting to see toward the end of Q2 and that we think is continuing in Q3,” said Josh Nye, a senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

Complementing fiscal measures, the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates to near zero and begun its first large-scale asset-purchase program. It has expanded its balance sheet as a share of GDP this year by more than the U.S. Federal Reserve and some other major counterparts.

Economists say that further gains for the economy will be challenged by the unknown path the virus could take and a tenuous recovery globally, but especially in the United States, where Canada sends 75% of its exports.

“The recovery is going about as well as anyone could have realistically hoped for a few short months ago,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Reporting by Fergal Smith, Editing by Steve Scherer and Alistair Bell

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China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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