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Canada's unemployment rate nears a record low on latest hiring binge – The Globe and Mail

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Pedestrians walk past a sign announcing in-restaurant dining, in Toronto, on Jan 31.Fred Lum/the Globe and Mail

Canada’s labour market bounced back sharply in February, more than recouping the jobs that were lost when the Omicron variant of COVID-19 ripped through the economy.

The country added 337,000 jobs last month, after a decrease of 200,000 in January, Statistics Canada said on Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5 per cent from 6.5 per cent, taking it near a record low that was set months before the pandemic began.

A hiring binge was expected in February, but nowhere near as much as what took place. The median estimate from Bay Street analysts was an increase of roughly 125,000 positions.

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The private sector drove the entirety of job gains, which were largely for part-time positions, and with forceful snapbacks in hard-hit industries, such as hospitality and culture.

In the process, the labour market notched several milestones. Notably, the employment rate – the proportion of the adult population (age 15 and up) who were employed – rose a full percentage point to 61.8 per cent, returning to its prepandemic level for the first time.

Canada is enjoying one of the world’s top labour recoveries from COVID-19. By way of comparison, employment in Canada has increased 1.9 per cent since February, 2020, while in the U.S. it has fallen 1.4 per cent.

Canadian inflation hits a new three-decade high with pressure to raise interest rates intensifying

Inflation is surging in Canada and the United States – but wages are barely keeping up

The report provided another indication that Canada’s economy is running hot – perhaps distressingly so.

Several analysts on Friday said the country has reached full employment, which could spark higher inflation as employers compete for fewer available people. The annual inflation rate is already at a three-decade high of 5.1 per cent, although central bankers have largely pinned that on pandemic-related factors, such as supply chain disruptions.

The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate earlier this month for the first time since 2018, aimed at tamping down inflation. The bank has acknowledged that steep inflation is expanding to more products, and now the Russia-Ukraine war is leading to a surge in commodity prices over which central bankers have little control.

“As if the Bank of Canada’s job wasn’t challenging enough, this rollicking employment report complicates matters even further,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter said in a report to clients. “An ultra-tight labour market, hot headline inflation, soaring commodity prices and a blazing housing market all suggest that the bank will press on with additional rate hikes even in the face of a dimmer global growth outlook.”

Ontario paced the provinces with a gain of 194,000 positions as it eased public-health restrictions. Quebec added 82,000 jobs in February. Statscan noted that work absences because of illness, which soared to record rates in January as a result of Omicron, fell back, as infection faded, to levels that were typical for February.

For many employers, the persistent concern is the availability of workers.

As of December, there were about 900,000 job vacancies, near a recent high, according to the latest figures from Statscan. The number of vacancies in health care and social assistance (137,100) hit a record that month, while employers were recruiting for more than 142,000 positions in hospitality, more than any other sector.

Despite that demand for labour, wage growth was tepid in 2021, although it appears to be picking up. The average hourly wage increased 3.1 per cent in February from a year earlier, faster than in recent months.

“With firms’ hiring plans still elevated, we expect the unemployment rate to fall near 5 per cent later this year and wage growth to accelerate much further,” Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note.

For many workers, a pay raise can’t come soon enough. Average wages are growing at a slower rate than inflation, which effectively translates into a pay cut and the loss of purchasing power.

At the same time, the Bank of Canada wants to avoid a wage-price spiral, in which workers seek better wages to cope with higher inflation, which forces companies to raise prices because of higher labour costs.

Last week, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank could be aggressive in raising its benchmark interest rate and wouldn’t rule out a half-percentage-point increase later this year, as opposed to the typical quarter-point hike that’s been standard the past two decades.

“Indeed, the odds of more aggressive actions later on this year have just ratcheted higher, although policy makers will likely need more clarity on the global backdrop before stepping up the pace of rate moves,” Mr. Porter said.

“The strong jobs backdrop also has important implications for fiscal policy,” he added, “with Ottawa’s budget due in the weeks ahead, and the need for additional spending melting fast.”

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Honda’s $15B Ontario EV plant marks ‘historic day,’ Trudeau says – Global News

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Japanese automaker Honda is putting $15 billion into their Ontario operations with a new electric vehicle manufacturing plant in Alliston, Ont. with a joint $5 billion coming from the federal and Ontario governments.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Honda executives made the announcement at the Alliston plant Thursday morning.

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“This is a historic day with the largest auto investment in Canada’s history,” Trudeau said at the start of his remarks Thursday morning.

“With this investment we will be creating Canada’s first electric vehicle supply chain from start to finish.”

The $15 billion project also includes plans to retool the existing Alliston plant to make solely electric vehicles, build a battery plant nearby and two battery part facilities elsewhere in Ontario.


Click to play video: 'Honda considering an EV battery plan in Ontario according to report'

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Honda considering an EV battery plan in Ontario according to report


“The world is changing rapidly and we must work toward the allies in carbon neutrality to sustain the global environment. Honda is making steady progress toward our goal to make battery electric and electric vehicles represent 100 per cent of our vehicle sales by 2040,” Honda global CEO Toshihiro Mibe said.

Canada’s target is to have all newly sold consumer vehicles be emission free by 2035.

Mibe added that North America is their largest market and he sees Canada and the United States as central to the company’s future plans. Honda’s goal is to have the electric vehicle facility up and running in 2028, with an annual production target of up to 240,000 vehicles.


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The company says this will create 1,000 more jobs, in addition to the 4,200 that already exist at the assembly plant. Trudeau added there will be additional construction jobs associated with the project.

More on Toronto

Unlike previous electric vehicle deals inked by Ottawa and Ontario, this one does not include production subsidies.

Instead, the federal government is contributing $2.5 billion through tax credits under the already existing clean technology manufacturing program and proposed electric vehicle supply chain tax credit included in the 2024 budget.

Ontario is contributing $2.5 billion through direct help on capital costs and indirectly through covering the land servicing costs for the future facilities.

The Conservatives say that when public money goes into projects like this, there should be assurances that any jobs created will be filled by Canadians and not temporary foreign workers.

“We can’t trust that his latest announcement of $5 billion in Canadian taxpayer money to another large multinational corporation will be any different. Conservatives will not let Justin Trudeau sell out Canadian union workers and taxpayers yet again,” innovation critic Rick Perkins and trade critic Kyle Seeback said in a joint statement.

“Canadians deserve a government that will stand up for Canadian workers. Common sense Conservatives will ensure Canadians’ tax dollars are used wisely, and that any taxpayer-funded jobs are given Canadians, not foreign replacement workers.”

Stellantis subsidiary NextStar signaled plans to bring in up to 900 temporary workers, predominantly with Korea to assist in the construction of their heavily subsidized battery plant in Windsor, Ont, which received a joint $15 billion from the federal and Ontario governments.

During the Honda press conference, Trudeau said that of the 2,000 construction workers in Windsor only 72 are temporary foreign workers. He added their main job is to train Canadians on how to use specialized equipment.

The prime minister defended public money going into this deal with Honda, saying moves like this are essential to competition in a shifting global vehicle market.

“It’s a legitimate debate, but I think they’re wrong as the world is turning towards new ways of manufacturing and cleaner products, cleaner vehicles, changing the way we build things, changing what we build, countries around the world are competing for investments,” Trudeau said.

“Yes, there are politicians who sit back and say ‘No, no, no, no, no. We’ve got to balance the budget at all costs. Even if it means not investing in Canadian workers and investing in the future.’ Well, I think they’re wrong.”

Ford echoed Trudeau’s defence of moves like this in attracting investments from multi-national automakers like Honda.

“This is generational. This is decades and decades down the road. What price do you put on that? There is no price you can put on that because we’re investing into the people. The money is staying here in Ontario. It’s not going overseas. It’s not going down to the U.S. It’s staying right here in Ontario for decades and generations to come,” Ford said.

Past EV subsidies

The federal and Ontario governments have already put up a combined $28.2 billion in subsidies to attract battery plants from Volkswagen and Stellantis LG to St. Thomas and Windsor, Ont. respectively.  This tactic was used to attract the plants to Canada instead of the United States, which included incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.

These subsidies are contingent on hitting hiring, construction and production targets, which are expected to be dolled out over the years, ending in 2032.

The federal government is covering two-thirds of these costs, with the Ontario government paying for the remainder.

A report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) last September said that it will take Ottawa 20 years to break even on what the government characterized as an investment.

At the time, Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said the PBO report did not capture broader economic impacts on the supply chain associated with increased battery production, which he said could increase the economic benefit of the subsidies.

With files from The Canadian Press.

&copy 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Tesla Promises Cheap EVs by 2025 | OilPrice.com – OilPrice.com

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Tesla Promises Cheap EVs by 2025 | OilPrice.com



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Charles Kennedy

Charles Kennedy

Charles is a writer for Oilprice.com

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Tesla has promised to start selling cheaper models next year, days after a Reuters report revealed that the company had shelved its plans for an all-new Tesla that would cost only $25,000.

The news that Tesla was scrapping the Model 2 came amid a drop in sales and profits, and a decision to slash a tenth of the company’s global workforce. Reuters also noted increased competition from Chinese EV makers.

Tesla’s deliveries slumped in the first quarter for the first annual drop since the start of the pandemic in 2020, missing analyst forecasts by a mile in a sign that even price cuts haven’t been able to stave off an increasingly heated competition on the EV market.

Profits dropped by 50%, disappointing investors and leading to a slump in the company’s share prices, which made any good news urgently needed. Tesla delivered: it said it would bring forward the date for the release of new, lower-cost models. These would be produced on its existing platform and rolled out in the second half of 2025, per the BBC.

Reuters cited the company as warning that this change of plans could “result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected,” however. This suggests the price tag of the new models is unlikely to be as small as the $25,000 promised for the Model 2.

The decision is based on a substantially reduced risk appetite in Tesla’s management, likely affected by the recent financial results and the intensifying competition with Chinese EV makers. Shelving the Model 2 and opting instead for cars to be produced on existing manufacturing lines is the safer move in these “uncertain times”, per the company.

Tesla is also cutting prices, as many other EV makers are doing amid a palpable decline in sales in key markets such as Europe, where the phaseout of subsidies has hit demand for EVs seriously. The cut is of about $2,000 on all models that Tesla currently sells.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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Why the Bank of Canada decided to hold interest rates in April – Financial Post

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Divisions within the Bank of Canada over the timing of a much-anticipated cut to its key overnight interest rate stem from concerns of some members of the central bank’s governing council that progress on taming inflation could stall in the face of stronger domestic demand — or even pick up again in the event of “new surprises.”

“Some members emphasized that, with the economy performing well, the risk had diminished that restrictive monetary policy would slow the economy more than necessary to return inflation to target,” according to a summary of deliberations for the April 10 rate decision that were published Wednesday. “They felt more reassurance was needed to reduce the risk that the downward progress on core inflation would stall, and to avoid jeopardizing the progress made thus far.”

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Others argued that there were additional risks from keeping monetary policy too tight in light of progress already made to tame inflation, which had come down “significantly” across most goods and services.

Some pointed out that the distribution of inflation rates across components of the consumer price index had approached normal, despite outsized price increases and decreases in certain components.

“Coupled with indicators that the economy was in excess supply and with a base case projection showing the output gap starting to close only next year, they felt there was a risk of keeping monetary policy more restrictive than needed.”

In the end, though, the central bankers agreed to hold the rate at five per cent because inflation remained too high and there were still upside risks to the outlook, albeit “less acute” than in the past couple of years.

Despite the “diversity of views” about when conditions will warrant cutting the interest rate, central bank officials agreed that monetary policy easing would probably be gradual, given risks to the outlook and the slow path for returning inflation to target, according to the summary of deliberations.

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They considered a number of potential risks to the outlook for economic growth and inflation, including housing and immigration, according to summary of deliberations.

The central bankers discussed the risk that housing market activity could accelerate and further boost shelter prices and acknowledged that easing monetary policy could increase the likelihood of this risk materializing. They concluded that their focus on measures such as CPI-trim, which strips out extreme movements in price changes, allowed them to effectively look through mortgage interest costs while capturing other shelter prices such as rent that are more reflective of supply and demand in housing.

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They also agreed to keep a close eye on immigration in the coming quarters due to uncertainty around recent announcements by the federal government.

“The projection incorporated continued strong population growth in the first half of 2024 followed by much softer growth, in line with the federal government’s target for reducing the share of non-permanent residents,” the summary said. “But details of how these plans will be implemented had not been announced. Governing council recognized that there was some uncertainty about future population growth and agreed it would be important to update the population forecast each quarter.”

• Email: bshecter@nationalpost.com

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