Canada's World Cup draw not quite the Group of Death, but it's close – The Globe and Mail

We always knew that Canada was going to get worked over in the World Cup draw.

This is a team that’s lost two games in the past eight months. It’s beaten the U.S. and Mexico straight up during that time. But because of the way FIFA ranks national teams (ie. in a way that benefits traditional powers), Canada was left pulling up the rear of qualifiers.

You knew it would probably get stuck with an uphill route in Friday’s qualifying draw. But this is more like going up a cliff face.

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Canada was the last name pulled during an interminable ‘celebration’ of the upcoming World Cup in Qatar. It will compete in Group F against Belgium, Croatia and Morocco.

Belgium is ranked second in the world. Croatia lost in the final of the World Cup four years ago. Morocco gave up only three goals in qualifying and didn’t lose a game.

It’s not quite the Group of Death, but it’s close. Call it the Group of Two Weeks in the Trauma Unit.

In a hint at what the soccer cognoscenti think of Canada’s chances, this was The New York Times’s chief soccer correspondent Rory Smith’s immediate reaction – “Picking up a point would be an achievement.”

The afternoon’s big winner – if such a thing can be said at this point – was the Netherlands. It fell into the gimme group, Group A, with the host, Qatar. This is Qatar’s first-ever World Cup and it only qualified because it’s paying for everything.

England will also be feeling good about its draw – against a mediocre American team, Iran and the eventual winner of a playoff between Scotland, Wales and Ukraine.

The big loser? Italy. It won’t get to play anyone because somehow, it contrived not to qualify.

Spain will feel hard done by that out of all the teams it could have been drawn from Pot 2, it fell into Germany’s path.

But over all, there was a sense of balance in the groups. There are a few obvious favourites in a few obvious groups, but still some room for outsiders.

If you like the sound of that, don’t get used to it. This will be the last World Cup featuring 32 finalists. The next time around, we jump up to 48. What’s good news for Kazakhstan and the Faroe Islands isn’t so great for competitive rigour. In terms of quality, this may be the last great World Cup from start to finish.

For Canada, it’s time to start looking for silver linings.

First off, it is an unknown commodity to the teams it faces. Most European experts will fall into the Rory Smith camp – that Canada is a fun story featuring some promising young players that has absolutely zero chance of doing anything in Qatar.

Teams aren’t as cavalier as the people who cover them. They will be more cautious, especially considering that many of their top players will know firsthand how much of a game breaker Alphonso Davies can be.

Belgium is to 21st century international football what Spain was to the 20th – an outrageously talented group of individuals who cannot figure it out as a team.

Qatar will be the last great ride of Belgium’s cursed golden generation – Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku et al.

There are only two routes for that group in Qatar – a romp deep into the tournament or a total implosion. Because anything less than an appearance in the final counts as an implosion.

Losing to Canada would be a good indication that things are going poorly.

If the best version of Belgium shows up, Canada has no chance. But history suggests the best version of Belgium is a 50-50 proposition on any given match day.

In keeping with the theme of the day – everything must be hard – Canada plays Belgium first, on Wednesday, Nov. 23rd.

Croatia has the pedigree, but it is also getting ragged around the edges. Luka Modric remains its most important player and he’s 36 years old. Thirty-six is like 86 for a box-to-box midfielder. Canada’s remarkable team speed will be the its best hope against the men from the Balkans. Not a great hope against a team this deep and experienced. But it’s something.

Morocco’s the easiest mark on paper, but international soccer matches aren’t played with a pen. Morocco last made the round of 16 back when Canada was last a decent international side – 1986. You just know it already has the game against Davies et al. as its primary target.

Two teams will advance from each group. The bookies have Canada at 250-1 – a long-shot, though not the worst one.

Now that we know the competition, it’s fair to set the goal.

Scoring a goal is the first order of business. Canada’s never done that in a World Cup.

Winning a game against any one of the other three teams in Group F would be a triumph.

Winning against Belgium or Croatia would be a legendary moment.

So, winning something should be the goal.

Is getting out of the group possible? Theoretically.

It would have to mean that at least one of the European bigwigs collapses and that Morocco doesn’t like playing in November or something.

That is to say, Canada doesn’t just need to be as good as it can be. Other teams need to be less than they should be.

Getting out of the group was never likely, but it’s still possible. A lot of unexpected things would have to happen.

But be straight: Two years ago, did you think your local interest in a World Cup draw would extend past which days you should avoid driving in Little Italy? Probably not.

So maybe it’s okay to dream a little.

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