The warning is coming from inside the house, and it’s not from one of Bay Street’s bears. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic said Canada is “playing with fire” in a note this week. Looking at the percent of income needed to carry a mortgage on homes, he doesn’t think 2017 was a bubble. The current situation is rapidly turning into one though. If mortgage rates rise, or stay the same and prices rise at the current pace, the market hits classic bubble levels.
Worse Than The Foreign Buyer Mini-Bubble
When people say this time’s different, they’re right – just probably not in the way they think. Kavcic called the explosive price movement in 2016/2017 a “mini-bubble.” The impact was limited to some segments, and locations. He also maintained while costs sharply increased, it was still manageable. “The result was correcting and taking almost 4 years to recover” after policy makers acted. Today, the picture is a little less optimistic.
Source: BMO Economics. Better Dwelling.
If Mortgage Rates Rise, Canada Is Back To The Late 80s Bubble
Low interest rates motivated sales activity, but also created a debt trap. The cheap carrying costs are making it easy to load up on high debt levels. However, if mortgage rates go back to pre-pandemic levels, “we’re back into late 1980s territory by this valuation metric,” notes the economist.
If Mortgage Rates Don’t Rise, Canada Is Back To The Late 80s Bubble
Leaving mortgage rates where they are sounds like the obvious solution, but that won’t work either. “If mortgage rates stay where they are, but prices keep doing what they’re doing, we’re back into the late-1980s territory by this time next year.”
If rates rise, or stay the same and home prices continue, real estate turns into a textbook disaster. Sounds like a
house condo of cards.
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Canadian home prices on fire and policymakers using ‘squirt gun’
By Julie Gordon
OTTAWA (Reuters) -Buyers are turning up the heat on Canada‘s searing hot housing market, their frenzy leading to record sales, prices and starts, but in a budget unveiled on Monday the federal government did little to tamp down the fire.
The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed home price gains accelerated 1.5% in March from February, data released on Tuesday showed.
The index was up 10.8% on the year, with a record 81% of the broader 32 markets surveyed posting annual gains above 10%. That far exceeds the last peak in 2017.
On Monday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, presenting Canada‘s first budget in over two years, fleshed out a previously announced tax on foreigners parking money in Canadian homes, along with limited investments in affordable housing.
“The idea here is that homes are for Canadians to live in. They are not assets for parking offshore money,” Freeland told reporters.
For those watching, it was nowhere near enough.
“It’s like a squirt gun next to a towering inferno,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.
“We need to break the psychology that real estate is this can’t lose investment that only goes up,” he added. “Before this turns into a full-on bubble.”
March was a record month for new housing starts and home resale prices surged 31.6% year-over-year.
New Zealand, facing a similarly red hot market, introduced a raft of cooling measures including new taxes on investors and stricter lending rules.
And most measures that would cool the frenzy are up to the provinces and federal government who remain cautious as a third wave of COVID-19 rages.
Real estate agents say more listing are now coming to market, but they still see a massive long-term shortage. They expected more than the 35,000 units pledged in the budget.
“It’s not going to do much to intervene in the activity level we’re seeing now across the country,” said Christopher Alexander of RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic.
(Reporting by Julie Gordon in OttawaEditing by David Gregorio and Alistair Bell)
Canada housing starts up 21.6% in March to new record – CMHC
By Julie Gordon
OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian housing starts rose 21.6% in March compared with the previous month, easily beating expectations and hitting a new record, data from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation showed on Monday.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts rose to 335,200 units in March, well ahead of analyst expectations for 250,000 units, and a new high for all months on record.
Much of the gain was on multiple urban starts, which jumped 33.8% to 222,358 units. Single-detached urban starts rose 3.6% to 78,615 units.
“The big acceleration came as weather was unseasonably warm in many parts of the country,” Royce Mendes, senior economist at CIBC Economics, said in a note.
Mendes added that new home construction will likely be a major contributor to overall GDP growth again in 2021, even as building activity cools off from the “torrid pace” of recent months.
Canada‘s average home selling price soared an eye-watering 31.6% year-over-year in March, hitting a new high as sales also climbed to a new all-time record, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said earlier this month.
A supply imbalance has been blamed for skyrocketing home prices through the pandemic, though new listings surged in March, which, coupled with strong starts, suggests a more balanced market could be coming.
“Red-hot demand for real estate propelled a record month for housing starts in March. While the market will need a long stretch of supply growth to have a meaningful effect on prices, the March numbers are a solid start,” said Shelly Kaushik, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in a note.
Canada‘s ruling Liberals are set to unveil their first full budget in two years on Monday, with billions in pandemic supports as COVID-19 infections skyrocket, a national daycare plan and new taxes on luxury goods.
(Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa; Editing by Toby Chopra and Jonathan Oatis)
Canadian home sales, prices surge to new record in March
OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian home sales rose 5.2% in March from February, setting a new all-time record amid strong demand in markets across the country, the Canadian Real Estate Association said on Thursday.
The industry group said actual sales, not seasonally adjusted, rose 76.2% from a year earlier, while the group’s Home Price Index was up 20.1% from last March and up 3.1% from February.
The actual national average selling price hit a new record at C$716,828 ($572,821) in March, up 31.6% from a year earlier and rising 5.7% from February.
($1 = 1.2514 Canadian dollars)
(Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa)
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