Canadian real estate prices are growing to comical levels, as bad policy stacks up. U.S Federal Reserve data shows real adjusted home prices increased at double the pace of the U.S in Q3 2020. As big as the gain is, it’s one of many times Canadian real estate prices have outperformed the U.S. home prices. In fact, it’s now at the point where Canadian prices have grown 25 times faster than U.S. home prices since 2005.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Were Up Over 8%
Canadian real estate prices made a massive jump last year, despite the pandemic. Real home prices increased 2.93% in Q3 2020, from the previous quarter. This brings annual gains 8.27% higher than the same month last year. Across the country, prices have doubled since 2005, and that’s after adjusting for inflation. One note worth taking away is, almost half of the gains occurred in the past 5 years. That’s a very rapid acceleration, even before considering the other half of the growth took twice as long.
U.S. Real Estate Prices Were Up Over 3%
U.S. real estate also made substantial gains over the past year, but it doesn’t look like much compared to Canada. Real prices increased 0.81% in Q3 2020, making them 3.45% higher than a year before. Across the country, prices are only 3.96% higher than they were in 2005, in real terms. In other words, prices have been moving largely with inflation over the past few decades.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Have Grown 25x Faster Than U.S. Prices Since 2005
The consistent growth without correction over nearly two decades has disconnected the two. Canadian real estate prices didn’t just see double the growth over the past year. Since 2005, real estate prices have grown over 25.31 times faster than U.S. real estate prices. This is not a normal trend.
Canadian and U.S. Real Estate Prices
An inflation adjusted index of Canadian and U.S. real estate prices.
Source: US Federal Reserve, Better Dwelling.
Canadian real estate prices historically have moved in line with U.S. prices. From 2005 to 2020, real prices in Canada increased over 25 times faster than U.S. prices. Before 2006 though, they largely moved around the same pace, with exceptions in 1980 and 1990. At the time, these periods were “new paradigms,” but subsequently found to just be bubbles. The recent home price acceleration is so large though, many people find it hard to believe a correction is possible.
Most people think of Canada’s recent real estate price surge as a long-term trend. However, almost half of the price gains occurred over a period only a little longer than a single political term. It might seem like forever for some people, but it’s just a fifth of a mortgage amortization. Cheap credit and policy to preserve (and inflate) prices hasn’t lasted this long before. That doesn’t mean it won’t last, it just means there’s no historic precedent. It’s not clear if this establishes a new paradigm though.
In the early 90s, the U.S. attracted young Canadian professionals looking for a better balance. Recently, Canada’s young people have been de-urbanizing due to high real estate prices. If both of those trends occur, will Canadians continue to pay premiums solely due to cheap credit?
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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.
The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.
However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.
Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
