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China's economy sees new pockets of growth in rising shopping trends – CNBC

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A customer eyes the beverage section in a supermarket on June 9, 2021 in Handan, Hebei province.
Li Hao | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese consumers spent less on daily necessities from foreign brands last year during the coronavirus pandemic, while those in smaller cities were more willing to spend than those in large ones, according to a report.

The report, co-authored by consultancy Bain & Company and analytics company Kantar Worldpanel, reflects pockets of growth in an economy that was already slowing its expansion before the pandemic.

The “China Shopper Report” — which the firms have conducted for 10 straight years — looks at a category called “fast-moving consumer goods” that includes food, beverages, personal care and home care. Items such as apparel are not included.

The volume of foreign brands sold in China last year fell 4.1%, while average selling price rose 1%, according to the report released on June 29.

As a result, the study said the foreign brands’ value declined 3.1%, versus a 0.5% drop for domestic companies. Volume was measured by kilograms, liter or unit depending on the category, Bain said.

“Chinese brands, aided by their strong local supply chain, reacted more quickly to shifting consumer sentiments and captured more volume growth by lowering [average selling price],” the report said.

The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains and trade channels as governments restricted business activity and international travel in an attempt to control the virus’ spread. China has particularly limited the ability of foreigners to enter the country.

Simmering geopolitical tensions have also hampered the ability of some foreign brands to sell in China earlier this year.

For example, Swedish clothing brand H&M faced backlash in China in March over comments that resurfaced about its concerns over alleged forced labor in Xinjiang region. Management said on a July 1 call its situation in China remained “complex.”

Meanwhile, executives for sportswear brands Nike and Adidas have been more optimistic about growth in the market in earnings call comments in the last two months.

The fact that this is a local brand versus an international brand may not be that much of an important criteria. What’s more important, is this the right brand for me?
Bruno Lannes
partner, Bain & Company

The China Shopper Report does not cover clothing. In the category including personal and home care products, the report found that foreign brands were able to catch up and surpass local brands in terms of market value growth in 2019, before the pandemic.

“In general, when you talk about foreign brands, Chinese consumers know them, they understand them and they enjoy buying them and using them just like they enjoy buying and using local brands,” said Bruno Lannes, Shanghai-based partner at Bain.

He said Chinese consumers are generally becoming less loyal and are buying from a greater variety of brands.

“The fact that this is a local brand versus an international brand may not be that much of an important criteria. What’s more important, is this the right brand for me?” he said, pointing to factors like functionality and recommendations from friends.

Small cities grow faster

While total spending for fast-moving consumer goods dropped by more than 1% in China’s largest cities, such as Beijing, spending rose in smaller ones, the report said.

“The smaller the city, the faster the growth in FMCG spending in 2020,” said the report, referring to spending on the category of consumer goods that includes packaged food, juice and personal care items. 

“The population in lower-tier cities continues to increase due to rural migration,” the report said. “Also, because residents of lower-tier cities typically travel less, they were less impacted by Covid-19 outbreaks. Each household’s purchased volume continued to grow relatively insulated from Covid-19 disruptions.”

The divergence contrasts with reports in previous years, when growth rates were pretty similar across the country, Lannes said. He said many brands can still find new markets in less developed parts of China, while new internet-driven shopping trends like group or “community buying” have been able to attract older users outside of big cities.

Overall, people are willing to spend. That’s why the volume is up… They’re a bit more price sensitive than they were before.
Bruno Lannes
partner, Bain & Company

The report said another internet-driven trend, livestreaming e-commerce, will likely build on last year’s massive growth for a total of 2 trillion yuan ($312.5 billion) in gross merchandise value this year. GMV refers to the value of goods sold over a period of time.

In fact, authors of the report expect livestreaming e-commerce to increase its share of China’s retail sales to about 9% or 10% this year, up from a 6% to 7% range in 2020.

More price sensitive

However, many Chinese consumers are still reluctant to spend at pre-pandemic levels.

Retail sales fell last year, while growth in consumer spending has missed analysts’ expectations for the last two months.

The subdued growth comes as the government tried to stimulate consumption with special promotions in May that saw a transaction value of 4.82 trillion yuan, up 22.8% from a year ago, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

“Overall, people are willing to spend. That’s why the volume is up,“ said Bain’s Lannes, pointing out that prices have been cut. “They’re a bit more price sensitive than they were before.”

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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