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Commodities: the Chinese real estate exposure – Financial Times

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In markets, being right early is the same as being wrong. Fortunately for FT Alphaville, the same rule doesn’t apply to journalism.

Back in 2018, FT Alphaville took a look at Evergrande — China’s largest property developer — and its ballooning balance sheet, which included 408,000 car parking spaces, a land bank the size of Malta, and a curiously low yield on its rental properties.

Three short years later, Evergrande is facing a liquidity crisis. In a normal economy, this wouldn’t be such a big deal. But in China, where real estate is estimated to account for up to a quarter of GDP, this is slightly more of a concern. It doesn’t help that the property developer also has some $300bn of outstanding obligations to pay. And it’s crunch time: two interest payments on its long-suffering bonds are due Thursday.

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So the question now is: how contagious would an Evergrande default be for the global economy? Chinese property stocks have started the week by already taking a battering, with Hong Kong listing Sinic Holdings crashing 87 per cent during trading on Monday, and the bonds of other developers sinking to distressed levels. Via UBS:

European equities this morning are also showing signs of suddern concern, with the FTSE 100 falling 1.6 per cent, and the Stoxx 600 off 1.8 per cent in midday trading. The basic materials sector is leading the charge, with the sector in the UK off 4.5 per cent, led by Anglo American’s fall of 8.6 per cent. In Europe, it’s a similar story, with steel company ArcelorMittal, as one example, down 6 per cent. (European banks also seem to be taking a battering, we should add.)

But why commodities? Well, the obvious answer is that real estate tends to use a lot of them — whether it’s steel for the structure or copper for wiring.

With that in mind, you might be wondering about just what level of exposure to the business of digging stuff out of the ground we are talking about here. Well, not to worry, because Tom Price at Liberum did a quick back-of-the-napkin estimate on what a Chinese real estate crunch might mean for commodities, and . . . it’s not too pretty.

Here’s the key blurb from his note this Monday morning:

bearish commodities? yes. 

looking narrowly at the direct/first-round impact on commodities, this event threatens a slowdown in China’s property sector – 1-of-2 very large, broad-based commodity-consuming sectors of this economy (i.e. the other = infra). 

it’s generally well known (among resources sector investors, at least) that China’s share of global commodities consumption = 40-70%. 

but what share of global consumption is China’s property sector? Of China’s total commodity supply, its property sector consumes: 

40% of steel flow (380Mtpa = 20% of global total); 

20% of copper (2.7Mtpa = 20% of global) 

15% of aluminium (6Mtpa = 9% of global) 

15% zinc (0.7Mtpa = 5% of global) 

10% nickel (0.2Mtpa = 8% of global)

ANSWER: China property = 5-20% of global commodity supply. – so yes, Evergrande’s potentially a big deal to Commodity World.

Yep, Chinese real estate accounts for a fifth of all global and copper steel supply. Blimey.

We don’t have a whole lot to add on top of those eye-opening stats, bar a passing thought that if you were an economy which depended on commodity sales for a large chunk of your output — say, Australia — you might be concerned that the fourth quarter is going to be a touch more difficult than expected.

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The Realtors' Big Defeat – The New York Times

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A settlement in the real estate industry is a case study of a central flaw in free-market economic theory.

Free-market economic theory suggests that the American real estate market should not have been able to exist as it has for decades.

Americans have long paid unusually high commissions to real estate agents. The typical commission in the U.S. has been almost 6 percent, compared with 4.5 percent in Germany, 2.5 percent in Australia and 1.3 percent in Britain. As a recent headline in The Wall Street Journal put it, “Almost no one pays a 6 percent real-estate commission — except Americans.”

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If housing operated as an efficient economic market should, competition would have solved this problem. Some real estate brokers, recognizing the chance to win business by charging lower commissions, would have done so. Other brokers would have had to reduce their own commissions or lose customers. Eventually, commissions would have settled in a reasonable place, high enough for agents to make a profit but in line with the rest of the world.

That didn’t happen. Instead, an average home sale in the U.S. has cost between $5,000 and $15,000 more than it would have without the inflated commissions. This money has been akin to a tax, collected by real estate agents instead of the government.

The situation finally seems to be ending, though. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors, the industry group that has enforced the rules that led to the 6 percent commission, agreed to change its behavior as part of an agreement to settle several lawsuits.

The settlement is important in its own right. Americans now spend about $100 billion a year on commissions. That number will probably decline by between $20 billion and $50 billion, Steve Brobeck, the former head of the Consumer Federation of America, told my colleague Debra Kamin.

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Allied REIT buys out Westbank on two building projects, the Home of the Week and more top real estate stories – The Globe and Mail

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Open this photo in gallery:

Home of the Week, 80 John St., Upper Penthouse 1, TorontoJohn Lee/John Lee/Soare Productions

Here are The Globe and Mail’s top housing and real estate stories this week and one home worth a look.

Take The Globe’s business and investing news quiz

Canadians’ wealth is bolstered by stock rally amid housing slump, Statscan says

In the fourth quarter, households saw their net worth rise by $290-billion, or 1.8 per cent, to roughly $16.4-trillion, Statistics Canada said in a report Wednesday. But many homeowners have yet to face the full brunt of higher interest rates until they renew their mortgages, writes Matt Lundy. Others have variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments, which means that as rates have increased, more of their bill is going toward the interest portion rather than paying down the principal. The looming renewals, among other factors, led Canadians to stay cautious about taking on new debt — financial liabilities only rose by 3.4 per cent in 2023.

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Allied REIT takes control of two towers co-developed with Westbank

Allied Properties REIT AP-UN-T is buying out its partner, Westbank Corp., on two office skyscrapers as the Vancouver-based real estate developer faces rising costs and legal claims at projects in Toronto and Seattle, writes Rachelle Younglai and Shane Dingman. The deal, which is expected to close in early April, will significantly cut the amount of debt Westbank owes Allied — giving them an infusion of cash in the process. In November, The Globe and Mail reported that Westbank faced legal claims for $25-million in unpaid work at the Mirvish Village development in Toronto.

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Advertised rents for purpose-built rentals were up 14.4 per cent nationwide in February, compared with the same month in 2023. An apartment rental building in Toronto’s Beach neighbourhood on Mar 11.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

Why rent inflation is much higher for rental apartments than for condos

In Canada’s overheated rental market, tenants are increasingly gravitating toward purpose-built rentals, experts say – demand that is driving up rent for these units much faster than for condos, writes Erica Alini. Advertised rents for purpose-built rentals, also called rental apartments, were up 14.4 per cent nationwide in February, compared with last year— rents for condos, on the other hand, grew by just 5 per cent in the same timeframe. A severe supply shortage, affordable prices and the allure of rent control in older buildings is driving up the prices in purpose-built rentals.

Renters have harder time accumulating wealth than homeowners, RBC report says

According to the report, homeowners have seen their net worth grow from nine times household disposable income to 13 times since 2010, while for renters, net wealth grew from three to 3.5 times over the same period. The gap has widened even though renters’ incomes have risen at the same pace as homeowners. Meanwhile, homeowners are also accumulating home equity with their housing payments. The tightening of renters’ incomes will make it even harder to save up for a down payment, economists say.

Home of the week: Festival Tower penthouse with an interior designer touch

  • Home of the Week, 80 John St., Upper Penthouse 1, TorontoJohn Lee/John Lee/Soare Productions

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80 John St., Upper Penthouse 1, Toronto

The 46th-floor penthouse sits right above the TIFF Lightbox theatre, which is home to the Toronto International Film Festival. When you first enter the two-bedroom-plus-den condo, you’re greeted by 11-foot-tall ceilings leading you into the living room. The previous owners had white-lacquered book cases installed on the wall separating the living area from the kitchen — which frames the spacious room — and the primary bedroom has its own hotel-style bathroom attached. The 180-degree view from the penthouse features a panoramic view of the city’s downtown. and stretches across Lake Ontario.

What do you think is the asking price for the property?

a. $2,999,000

b. $3,875,000

c. $4,195,000

d. $4,500,000

c. The asking price is $4,195,000.

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At Real Estate's Biggest Conference, Property Crisis Denial Shifts to Acceptance – Bloomberg

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Welcome to The Brink. I’m Jack Sidders, a reporter usually based in London but this week I’ve been in Cannes where about 20,000 real estate professionals gathered for the annual Mipim conference. We also have news on German giant Bayer, crypto exchange FTX and Swedish debt collector Intrum. Follow this link to subscribe. Send us feedback and tips at debtnews@bloomberg.net or DM on X to @JackSidders.

Mipim is supposed to be a time for developers to show off their grand visions for projects of the future, with cities built in miniature hoping to lure pools of capital that will turn them into full scale realities.

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