<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone’s forward expectations related to the US and global economy. Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https://www.npr.org). All of the recent repositionings of the global markets and forward expectations got us thinking about “what happens after 8 to 12+ months? How will the US and global markets attempt a recovery process – if at all?”. Today, we are going to try to start digging into the data that we believe is relevant to the future in terms of hard asset prices (home and other property) and more liquid asset prices (global financial markets).” data-reactid=”12″>The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone’s forward expectations related to the US and global economy. Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https://www.npr.org). All of the recent repositionings of the global markets and forward expectations got us thinking about “what happens after 8 to 12+ months? How will the US and global markets attempt a recovery process – if at all?”. Today, we are going to try to start digging into the data that we believe is relevant to the future in terms of hard asset prices (home and other property) and more liquid asset prices (global financial markets).
First, we want to preface this article by stating that humans are somewhat predictable in terms of how they will react in emergency or panic situations like this current Covid-19 pandemic. Initially, they will react to protect what is vital to them (family, assets, safety). This same thing happened in the 2008-09 credit market crisis market collapse. Then, after a bit more time, people change their thinking and start to adapt to the situation as it unfolds. We believe that 30 to 60 days from now, as more information becomes available and consumers globally are more capable of addressing the true longer-term risks of this virus event, a social process will begin to take place where valuations and expectations will adjust to the new perceived outcome (whatever that may be).
The global stock market has collapsed nearly -35% based on our Custom Indexes. The SPY has collapsed -32.25% since February 23, 2020. During the 2008-09 Credit Crisis, the SPY collapsed -57.50% before finding a bottom near $67.10. We believe this initial price decline in the global markets is just the first downside price collapse of what may become many. Ultimately, we believe the 2015/2016 lows will become the ultimate support for this downside move in the US markets.
<h2 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="SPY Weekly Chart” data-reactid=”15″>SPY Weekly Chart
<h2 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Custom Real Estate Index Weekly Chart” data-reactid=”32″>Custom Real Estate Index Weekly Chart
<h2 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Custom European Index Weekly Chart” data-reactid=”49″>Custom European Index Weekly Chart
If our assumptions are correct, the reprieve in Foreclosures and Mortgage repayments for US consumers may not do much to resolve the ultimate problem. The problem will quickly revolve around the issue of how quickly the US economy can resume somewhat normal functions after the virus event subsides. We believe the reprieve offered to US consumers will assist in making the data a bit more tolerable for a short period of time, but ultimately any extended disruption in the US and global economy will result in extended risks in hard assets like homes, commercial property, and future valuation expectations.
<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="(Source: realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/)” data-reactid=”88″>(Source: realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/)
This multi-part research article will dig deeper into the data and expected data to help you prepare for what may be likely in the markets (hard and soft). Now is the time to prepare for what could become one of the biggest disruptions in the global markets and global society we’ve ever seen.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.” data-reactid=”91″>Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="This article was originally posted on FX Empire” data-reactid=”94″>This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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Pandemic bites northern BC real estate market – Prince George Citizen
The COVID-19 crisis is taking a toll on real estate sales in northern B.C., with demand for housing tailing off and fewer properties up for sale compared to 2019.
During the first quarter of 2020, from January through March, the BC Northern Real Estate Board had 753 sales worth a total of $217,389,724 through its Multiple Listing Service.
There were 3,096 properties of all types available throughout the first three months of 2020, compared to 3,130 a year ago. As of March 31st there were 509 properties available, down from 534 at that time in 2019.
The sluggish economy in the region, especially in the forestry, mining and oil/gas sectors, is to blame for the 13 per cent decline in sales in the region, according to the BCNREB. With fewer listings available, the average price for a single-family home did increase by one per cent to $298,811.
In Prince George, 221 properties were $73.3 million were sold. That’s down from 257 properties worth about $90 million through the first three months of 2019. Three of the four sections of the city included in the report released Friday reported an increase in the median selling price of single-family homes over last year.
In the western part of Prince George, 34 single-family homes sold with a median value of $346,000 ($327,500 in 2019). East of Highway 97, 29 homes sold, worth a median $272,500 ($309,000).
In the Hart area north of the Nechako River, 29 homes sold with a median price of $401,250 ($370,000). In the southwest section, 37 homes sold in the first three months of the year had a median price of $453,500 ($429,500).
The board expects second-quarter sales will continue to decline in the wake of the pandemic and the resulting scale-back of operations for major resource projects in the region.
“The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause significant challenges to everyone in our society,” said BCNREB president Shawna Kinsley. “Our members are committed to doing their part to ensure communities stay safe. Real estate is an essential service.
“Realtors are following all orders and guidance from the Public Health Authority… (and) are also modifying their practices around face-to-face meetings and showings. The real estate board has recommended that no open houses be held during this time.
“Sellers may now remain on the MLS system without the need for showings and all consumers can expect more phone or virtual meetings as well as limits on showings and new showing guidelines. We ask consumers to be patient with real estate practice changes at this time.”
Other real estate sales in the region from January-March 2020, with the 2019 numbers in parenthesis:
Mackenzie: Ten (12) properties were sold worth $1.5 million ($1.4 million) with 56 (63) properties available on MLS for purchase as of March 31;
Burns Lake: Four (16) properties worth $456,000 ($2.3 million) were sold with 80 (87) properties listed;
Vanderhoof: Nineteen (30) sales worth $4.4 million ($12.2 million) with 89 (80) properties listed;
Fort St. James: Eleven (nine) sales worth $2.1 million ($1.9 million) with 54 (61) properties listed;
Quesnel: Forty-seven (55) sales worth $8.5 million ($11.7 million) with 161 (147) properties listed.
Williams Lake: Fifty-eight (91) properties have sold worth $ 15.4 million ($21.4) with 190 (207) properties listed.
How Ontario realtors are coping during the coronavirus pandemic – Global News
When the province deemed real estate an essential service due to the coronavirus, it was recommended that realtors stop doing open houses.
Realtor Colleen Koehler said that when Ontario Premier Doug Ford kiboshed gatherings of five or more, that essentially put an end to open houses altogether. Koehler, head of the Kitchener-Waterloo Association of Realtors, says people in the profession have begun looking for creative ways — including virtual tours — to show homes without people actually going in them.
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She says that instead of taking clients into a home, the agent will go in, film the house, and take questions in real-time.
Toronto realtor Melanie Piche seconded the notion, saying that realtors have begun to use technology to their advantage.
“Virtual open houses are a way to introduce people to properties and really reduce the number of times people are having to go into each other’s homes,” she said.
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Her partner, Brendan Powell, explained that a realtor will show up at a home at a set time and date and will address people’s questions on a live stream.
“People who want to do more than just look at a virtual tour can actually talk to the agent and say, ‘Can you show me what the flooring’s like?’ or ‘Show me what the view from the top floor is like,’” he said. “People can see those things the same way that they might see it if they were there without actually physically being there.”
In an attempt to limit the spread of COVID-19, realtors have also developed a questionnaire to determine someone’s risk levels and have used some creative solutions for when people need to enter into houses.
Another Waterloo region agent, Tony Johal, said in some cases where clients have entered a home, they have been asked to wear a mask and gloves.
“We ask that they don’t linger around the house longer than what they probably should,” he said. “We ask that they don’t sit on the furniture or touch any … surfaces.”
COVID 19 pandemic growing worse across Canada
Even with the precautions, the realtors in each city say that the market has paused for the most part during a time of year when it would normally be active.
“From the outside, it sometimes seems like stuff is coming up still as things are still on the market,” Powell said. “But the reality is that there’s … very little that we can do because so much of our business is out and about and in person.”
That said, Piche said she has not seen any panic selling yet.
“If you go back to 2017 when that foreign buyer tax came in, we saw in an instant we were getting four or five calls a day from panic sellers,” he said.
Johal echoed those sentiments, though he has begun to see more balance in the market.
“We haven’t shifted all the way over to a buyer’s market at this point,” he said. “They’re not underpricing their property to drive multiple offers in many cases. I would say more than 50 to 60 per cent of all properties are now being listed at the true market value.”
Ontarians are still trying to figure out how long the quarantine will last and where things will land, including the realtors.
“We don’t know whether or not this will truly create an impact for the rest of the year and maybe beyond,” Johal said.
“But if it’s fairly quickly, then I can see the real estate market acting like an elastic band. Everybody that left is now going to spring back into the market.”
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He says that the longer the current state of affairs goes on, we will see an increase in the likelihood that the market will shift more dramatically.
KWAR released its monthly numbers on Thursday, saying that area realtors saw an increase of 13.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
“Before the pandemic hit our region, I believe we were on pace to set a record number of sales for March with the continuance of high demand, low inventory, and a strong seller’s market,” Koehler said.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported similar activity, saying that home sales were up 49 per cent in the first two weeks compared with last year, but sales were down 15.9 per cent compared with last year for the rest of the month.
“Really, that decision was only made to allow us to work with those clients, buyers and sellers, that are already in the pipeline,” Koehler said.
“We have lots of properties that are currently closing,” Koehler said.
Kingston realtor Matt Lee said his agency is recommending that clients put the pause button on the search for homes but there are times when it is impossible to do so.
Between the military bases and the prisons, Kingston has a transient population, with some residents being forced to move quickly.
“Nobody knows what kind of position other people are in,” Lee said.
© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
Hamilton's real estate sales jumped in March, but analysts predict slumping market rest of year – HamiltonNews
The provincial government identified real estate as an essential business because, Robertson said, there is a need for people to have a place to live. Real estate agents also had to make sure the proper documentation was completed for in any transaction that occurred before and during the pandemic.
The Ontario Real Estate Association sent out an information document March 25 urging real estate agents to suspend all open houses, agent and public office hours and in-person showings.
“In these unique situations, where a property listed for sale is occupied by tenants, the health and safety of those tenants, the realtors and their clients are of utmost priority,” said San Morrison, president OREA in a news release.
Robertson said real estate agents are using more technology in their work such a video conference calls, digital signing and virtual tours. If a person wants to buy a house, the prospective buyer can make a quick tour of the property to confirm any intentions whether to buy or not.
“It’s harder to service your customers,” Robertson acknowledged.
But he says real estate agents can quickly adapt. Prospective buyers, he said, in the past have examined a property in such a place as Florida, for instance, using virtual technology. Potential buyers are then given a deadline to physically see the homes or building and, if they like it, they make an offer. The same process can proceed under the current limitations, said Robertson.
Robertson’s portfolio is concentrated on commercial and agriculture properties, which are easier to conduct a transaction. He can have a face-to-face discussion during meetings while maintaining the six-foot physical separation and most, if not all, of the properties on the market are empty so it’s not a problem examining the structures or land.
“It’s pretty easy to do, if you observe the physical distancing,” he said.
Robertson said with historic low interest rates — the Bank of Canada slashed its benchmark interest to 0.25 per cent — he can see people who want to upsize to a better house or older people inclined to downsize. The idea is a strengthening job market next year and an expected immigration surge could push sales to more than 40 per cent in 2021 with prices moving to favour sellers.
“With the interest rates now, money is basically free,” he said.
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