TORONTO — Premier Doug Ford will announce details on reopening Ontario’s economy next week, the labour minister said Friday as the government debated whether or not to extend the province’s state of emergency.
Monte McNaughton did not provide further specifics but his comments came before Ford and his cabinet were to meet to discuss the emergency order that’s set to expire on Tuesday.
“We’re moving toward reopening the economy and the premier is going to further communicate that next week,” McNaughton said. “We’re moving in the right direction.”
Ontario’s Solicitor General’s office said no decisions have been made regarding whether to end or extend the emergency order.
A provincial lockdown was imposed in late December and was followed by the state of emergency and a stay-at-home order that took effect Jan. 14 as COVID-19 rates surged.
While cases have since declined, public health officials have said the spread of more contagious variants of COVID-19 are a concern.
Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. David Williams, has said he would like to see daily case rates drop below 1,000 and the number of patients with COVID-19 in hospital intensive care units below 150 before lifting restrictions.
“It is achievable, we can get back there,” Williams said in mid-January.
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Ontario reported 1,670 cases of COVID-19 on Friday, although 125 of them were older infections from Toronto that weren’t previously recorded by the province.
Public health officials noted that updates to the provincial case database were causing fluctuations in this week’s tallies.
The province also said Friday that there are 325 patients with COVID-19 in hospital intensive care units, with 225 on ventilators.
Ontario reported 45 deaths linked to the virus on Friday. A total of 6,438 Ontarians have died from the novel coronavirus.
The president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business said Friday that he’s optimistic the province will soon begin to lift some restrictions on businesses.
Dan Kelly said he hopes Ford will announce concrete reopening dates that throw a lifeline to small businesses that have suffered under pandemic restrictions.
“We desperately need a clear indication, and a plan, to reopen our economy,” he said.
Kelly said he doesn’t expect the province will lift all of its public health measures, but would like to see all businesses allowed to open across Ontario with a 20 per cent capacity limit.
That could increase if case counts continue to come down, he added.
“We have recommended not to end all restrictions, but to replace them with a pathway that would allow businesses to reopen with masking and physical distancing … so they can live another day,” he said.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said Friday that the government has not moved quickly enough to address the pandemic in long-term care and schools, or provided paid sick days for workers.
“If the orders are extended it will be because Doug Ford didn’t do his job and hasn’t been responding adequately to the crisis of COVID-19 since day one,” she said.
Ontario’s lockdown banned indoor gatherings, closed all but essential stores to in-person shopping, shuttered restaurant dining rooms and closed gyms and salons, among other things.
The stay-at-home that was imposed in January requires people to keep to their homes except for essential activities such as accessing health care, shopping for groceries, or outdoor exercise.
The province did not provide a set definition for what is “essential,” saying everyone has their own unique circumstances and regional considerations.
© 2021 The Canadian Press
‘Do whatever it takes’: Beijing urged to act as China’s economy falters – The Guardian
The US economy is 'nowhere near a recession this year,' says an economist—but 2023 is a different story – CNBC
With turmoil in the markets, high inflation and impending interest rate hikes that will make borrowing money more expensive, many Americans are wondering if the economy is heading toward a recession.
Goldman Sachs chairman Lloyd Blankfein said last weekend that “it’s certainly a very, very high risk factor,” and consumers should be “prepared for it.” However, he hedged his comments by saying the Federal Reserve “has very powerful tools” and a recession is “not baked in the cake.”
Although it is impossible to know for sure, the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year have been steadily rising, according to a recent Bloomberg survey of 37 economists. They have the probability pegged at 30%, which is double the odds from three months ago.
To put that number into context, the threat of a recession is typically about 15% in a given year, due to unexpected events and numerous variables.
The bottom line: “The likelihood of recession this year is pretty low,” says Gus Faucher, a chief economist at financial services company PNC Financial Services Group. However, “it gets dicier in 2023 and 2024.”
What determines whether the economy enters a recession
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months, according to The National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially declares recessions.
A key indicator of a possible recession is the real gross domestic product (GDP), an inflation-adjusted value of the goods and services produced in the United States. For the first time since early in the pandemic, it decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022. Since many economists agree that 2% is a healthy annual rate of growth for GDP, a negative quarter to start the year suggests the economy might be shrinking.
Another factor is rising inflation, which has recently shown signs of slowing down. But it’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target benchmark, with a year-over-year rate of 8.3% in April, according to the most recent Consumer Price Index numbers.
With a high rate of inflation, higher prices outpace wage growth, making things like gas and rent more expensive for consumers. For that reason, the Fed imposes interest rate hikes, as they did in March and May, with five more expected to follow this year. These hikes discourage spending by making the cost of borrowing money more expensive for businesses and consumers.
While many economists still expect the GDP to grow in 2022, the rate by which inflation is decreasing is less clear.
Signs of economic strength
However, there are positive economic indicators to consider as well. Job numbers continue to look good, as the U.S. economy in April had its 12th straight month of job gains of 400,000 or more. And employment levels and consumer spending remain strong, for now, despite interest hikes and inflation.
“Ultimately, inflation in terms of rising prices needs to work its way into actual spending behavior,” says Victor Canalog, head of the commercial real estate economics division within Moody’s.
He points out that consumer expenditures in the U.S. rose by 2.7% last quarter: “People are still spending more, but at what point will they start spending less?”
Despite these positives, risks remain. The Federal Reserve is walking a fine line with its monetary policy, says Faucher, as doing either too much or too little to control inflation could further hurt the economy.
“Rising interest rates are designed to cool off growth, hopefully without pushing the economy into recession,” says Faucher. But he says that if the central bank “raises their rates too much, that can push the economy into recession.”
“That’s why I’m more concerned about 2023, or 2024, because we’ll have felt the cumulative impact of all of those interest rate increases that we’re going to be seeing over the next year and a half.”
‘Difficult to believe’: Biden’s economy plan a tough sell in Asia – Al Jazeera English
Phnom Penh, Cambodia – US President Joe Biden’s arrival in Seoul on Friday marks not only the start of his first visit while in office to South Korea and Japan, but the beginnings of an economic initiative aimed at deepening United States ties across Asia.
Though many of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’s details have yet to be finalised, the Biden administration has made one point clear – the plan is not a traditional trade agreement that will lower tariffs or otherwise open access to US markets, but a partnership for promoting common economic standards.
While many of China’s regional neighbours share Washington’s concerns about the burgeoning superpower’s ambitions, the IPEF’s lack of clear trade provisions could make it an uninspiring prospect for potential members, especially in Southeast Asia.
“You can sense the frustration for developing, trade-reliant countries,” Calvin Cheng, a senior analyst of economics, trade and regional integration at Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies, told Al Jazeera. “There’s always talk about engaging Asia, the idea, but what exactly is it – and what are the incentives for developing countries to take up standards that are being imposed on them by richer, developed countries?”
Since announcing the IPEF in October, the Biden administration has characterised the initiative as a way of promoting common standards under the pillars of fair and resilient trade; supply chain resilience; infrastructure, clean energy, and decarbonisation; and tax and anti-corruption.
A fact sheet distributed by the White House in February describes the framework as part of a wider push to “restore American leadership” in the region by engaging with partners there to “meet urgent challenges, from competition with China to climate change to the pandemic”.
Nevertheless, Biden’s decision not to pursue a major trade deal harks back to the protectionist leanings of former US President Donald Trump, and, in particular, his administration’s abrupt pullout from the landmark Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Trump, whose antipathy towards traditional alliances sparked anxiety in many Asian countries, scuttled that agreement in 2017 despite sharing the deal’s aims of countering expanding Chinese economic influence.
But even without clear benefits to boost trade, Asian leaders have, for the most part, reacted favourably to the prospect of renewed US engagement in Asia.
Longtime allies Japan and South Korea are expected to be among the first to engage with the IPEF, as are Singapore and the Philippines.
From Vietnam, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said at the recent US-ASEAN summit that Vietnam “would like to work with the US to realise the four pillars of that initiative”.
However, he added that Vietnam needed more time to study the framework, as well as to see more “concrete details”.
Thailand has also demonstrated interest, while leaders in Indonesia and India have yet to take a clear position.
Huynh Tam Sang, a lecturer of international relations at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Ho Chi Minh City, said Hanoi wished to avoid antagonising either the US or China – a common position for Southeast Asian states attempting to stay clear of great power struggles while avoiding being dominated by their northern neighbour.
“The Vietnamese government has been rather prudent not to showcase any intentions to join the IPEF or not, though I think there are many benefits to joining,” Sang told Al Jazeera, listing clean energy and reliable supply chains as common interests.
Sang said, however, that other standards, such as those related to taxes and anti-corruption efforts, could be a step too far for the Vietnamese government.
“I think Vietnam could be really reluctant to join that pillar for fear of the US intervening in Vietnam’s domestic politics,” he said.
“The anti-corruption campaign is definitely going on, but many Vietnamese are very sceptical of this view of cooperation, especially with the US when the Biden administration has prioritised democratic values when fostering ties with regional countries.”
Such concerns could undercut the renewed US engagement, particularly when China has made a point to engage in trade without such values-based strings attached. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade deal that went into effect at the start of this year, is a testament to that hands-off approach to some observers.
China played a key role in negotiating the RCEP, which also includes Japan and South Korea, plus all 10 of the ASEAN member-states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – as well as Australia and New Zealand.
In total, the RCEP covers some 2.3 billion people and an estimated 30 percent of the global economy. The partnership is widely seen as being more focused on promoting trade by removing tariffs and red tape, with a less holistic approach to raising economic standards than the TPP or its successor, the reassembled Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Cheng described the CPTPP, of which the US is not a member, as the “gold standard” for trade deals in the region, noting its commitment to expanded trade access as well as provisions to safeguard labour rights, promote transparency and address environmental issues and climate change.
“So the IPEF is pretty much that, but taking out the trade deal aspect of it, leaving just the standards,” he said.
It remains to be seen how far the standards-only method will go in terms of winning acceptance across Asia.
Already, Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob and international trade minister Azmin Ali have said the US should take a more comprehensive approach.
Ali described the framework proposal in an interview with Reuters as a “good beginning for us to engage on various issues” and said Malaysia would decide which IPEF pillars it would consider joining. At the same time, he made clear the IPEF was not a replacement for the more-comprehensive TPP.
Some of the most straightforward public criticism of the new framework on that front has come from prominent former ministers in Japan, one of the region’s most steadfast US allies.
Earlier this month, former foreign minister Taro Kono and former justice minister Takashi Yamashita spoke at an event in Washington of the new framework’s lack of hard commitments, an aspect they found glaring in the context of the abrupt collapse of the TPP. In their comments, the two maintained the IPEF would only serve to undermine the CPTPP.
“Now the Biden administration is talking about the Indo-Pacific Economic whatever, I would say forget about it,” Kono said.
Hiroaki Watanabe, a professor of international relations at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto, said the US withdrawal from the TPP had undermined Japanese perceptions of the IPEF’s stability. Though Biden may promote his framework while in power, Watanabe said, there was no guarantee the next president would.
“Right now, it’s the Biden administration, but we don’t know what will come next – it could even be Trump again,” Watanabe told Al Jazeera.
“From a non-American perspective, it’s really difficult to believe what America is saying when it says it wants to commit itself to these plans,” Watanabe added. “There are many challenges to the logistics of this, and then the US may just throw away the kind of commitment as measured by the IPEF in the future. Practically, it’s not meaningless, but it’s not significant either.”
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