TORONTO —
The current lockdown measures in Toronto and Peel Region are not having the same impact in curbing the spread of COVID-19 as they did in March, according to new modelling released by the Ontario government.
The province announced the finding during a news conference on Thursday afternoon, where experts also detailed the most updated projections for the spread of the disease in Ontario.
The government said one of its key findings is that the current lockdown in Toronto and Peel Region has not had nearly as much impact on curtailing mobility, and likely contacts, as the lockdown did in March.
In April, anonymous data showed that nearly 80 per cent of mobile devices in Toronto stayed at home throughout the day, but that number now dropped to about 60 per cent.
The data showed that Peel Region is seeing 197 cases per 100,000 residents per week, while Toronto is seeing 118. Those numbers appeared to dip when the province first introduced lockdown measures at the end of November, but days later, they hiked back up.
However, if the province takes back restriction and lockdown measures, case numbers in the province could get worse, Dr. Adalsteinn Brown of the University of Toronto warned while speaking about the projections on Thursday.
“The current set of restrictions are not reducing mobility as much as the original quite significant restrictions in the spring,” he said. “If we see a relaxation of those restrictions, we would also expect to see an increase in the case rate and not surprisingly increased mobility as well.”
The modelling presented examined four different paths that the province could take depending on the growth in cases between now and early January.
Brown said if cases grow at a rate of three per cent over the next month, which is a slightly accelerated pace than the 2.47 per cent growth rate seen over the last 14 days, the province would end up with roughly 5,000 daily cases in January.
However, in a better scenario, he said data predicts that if the rate of growth were to slow to one per cent, the province would have about 2,500 daily cases.
In the worst-case scenario, based on the five per cent growth rate that Ontario briefly saw in November before the lockdown in Toronto and Peel, the province could see nearly 10,000 daily cases by early January.
Number of COVID-19 patients in ICU, deaths may increase
Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams spoke at the news conference on Thursday to explain what the modelling data means for the province’s residents.
He said that while COVID-19 case numbers continue to grow, the per cent positivity rate appears to be flattening as the province conducted record-breaking amounts of testing.
“A lot of testing is getting done and the present positivity, going up and down, has been moving between, I would say about 3.3 per cent up to just five and back down again,” Williams told reporters.
The modelling also showed that the number of new COVID-19 cases in long-term care settings are flattening. However, Williams and Brown warned that deaths in these settings remain high and may continue to increase.
“Long Term Care mortality, and overall mortality to continue to increase, and may exceed 25 deaths per day within a month,” Brown said. “Mortality varies day-to-day quite significantly, but we’re able to using forecasting to look ahead and see what, at least the average expected amount of mortality is going to be.”
Officials said 115 long-term care homes are currently in outbreak, with 119 confirmed cases in these homes. The data said 496 residents have died since August, and 102 of those deaths took place within the last seven days.
The province also found that the number of people in hospital and intensive care units (ICUs) due to the novel coronavirus is continuing to rise.
There are currently 829 patents in Ontario hospitals due to the disease, and 228 of those patients are in ICUs, according to the province.
The data stated that the province saw a 91.6 per cent increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations over the past four weeks, and a 165.9 per cent increase in the number of patients in intensive care due to the disease.
Officials predict more than 200 beds will be occupied by COVID-19 patients under all scenarios for at least a month.
Brown said if the infection growth rate is somewhere between one and three per cent, the province can expect to see 250 to 350 ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients.
The province has said that once the number of patients with the disease in intensive care gets to 300, it becomes almost “impossible” to handle other non-COVID-19 needs in hospitals.
“This is not evenly distributed across the province. This is not a few beds in every hospital. This is heavily concentrated in Peel and Toronto,” Brown said.
“When ICUs become heavily affected by COVID like this, you really start to see interruptions in service, including necessary and emergency service.”
“We’re over the threshold at which we believe we have to start canceling and delaying elective surgery. We are now at that threshold, particularly in a number of communities, where important care is being delayed.”
Ontario reported 1,983 new cases on Thursday, a record for the highest number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day. Williams said the province could see over 2,000 cases over the next few days as more testing for the disease is completed.
The total number of lab-confirmed cases in Ontario is now 134,783, including 3,871 deaths and 114,679 recoveries.
The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.
It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.
Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”
Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.
Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.
On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.
Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”
But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”
“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.
Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.
Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.
Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.
“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.
“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.
The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.
Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.
“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”
The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.
A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.
Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.
“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.
Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.
The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.
“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.
Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.
The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.
“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.
Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.
Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.
A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
