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Domestic Help Seeks Help: New Economy Daily – Bloomberg

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Hello. Today we look at an segment of the American workforce which is lagging the recovery, the literal tiger economy, and the potential fallout from trillions of dollars in government spending. 

Struggling to Keep Up

One category of worker is struggling to keep up with the recovering American labor market: domestic helpers.

U.S. hiring has been picking up quickly in recent months thanks to vaccinations and reopening of the economy — at least, before the current rise in worries about the delta variant.

But the group with a large immigrant representation and predominantly women of color still has a long way to go.

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Based on recent surveys, more than a quarter of the 2.2 million cleaners, nannies and other caregivers who work in private homes may still be out of work, Augusta Saraiva reports.

More than one in three domestic workers are immigrants, hundreds of thousands of whom are undocumented. 

Foreign-born domestic employees are estimated to make almost $2 less per hour than their American counterparts.

Now the coronavirus crisis has left many with even lower income, if at all.

For the undocumented, the situation is worse, because they typically have no access to government aid when they lose their job. 

To help protect them, Democrats in the Senate re-introduced last month the National Domestic Workers Bill of Rights.

First presented by then-Senator Kamala Harris in 2019, the bill would ensure paid sick leave as well as meal and rest breaks for homecare employees, on top of extending civil-rights protections to this category. Ten states, including New York, already have bills of rights for domestic workers.

Chris Anstey

The Economic Scene

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India’s Project Tiger aims to boost the population in the wild to as much as 4,000 in the next decade.

Among Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s myriad options to help revive his economy from a rare contraction brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, “Project Tiger” is definitely among the most unlikely. 

The country intends to grow the wild tiger population by 35% to as many as 4,000 in the next decade, which would protect forests while also boosting economic gains from conservation.

One rupee invested in tiger reserves provides 243- to 7,488-times worth of benefits to the country in a year, said Madhu Verma, New Delhi-based chief economist at the World Resources Institute.

A study she authored in 2019 showed monetary value of direct and indirect benefits from 10 tiger reserves ranged from 51 billion rupees ($687 million) to 162 billion rupees in a year.

Today’s Must Reads

  • Tax questions | Wealthy Americans wondering how much more taxes they’ll owe after Democrats pass their sweeping social-spending package may have to wait until deep into the fall, or later, to find out.
  • State aid | The spread of the delta variant could force even states that cut off extra unemployment benefits early, like Florida, to offer additional support, President Joe Biden’s U.S. labor chief told Bloomberg.
  • Harris to Asia | U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will look to bolster economic cooperation in China’s backyard as she visits Singapore and Vietnam in the Biden administration’s most high-profile trip yet to Asia.
  • Going backward | Japan’s inflation dropped for a 12th month in July, extended the longest losing streak in a decade after data revisions showed weakness during the pandemic was worse than previously reported.
  • Still home | The worst of the coronavirus pandemic may be receding into the rear-view mirror, but office workers are little closer to returning to their desks full-time.
  • Longer lockdowns | Sydney’s two-month long lockdown will be extended until at least the end of September and masks will need to be worn outside as the Covid-19 delta variant outbreak in Australia’s most populous city worsens — and ensnares New Zealand.

Need-to-Know Research

A blowout in government borrowing since the pandemic began will ultimately require spending cuts and higher taxes to get public finances back on track.

That’s a lesson from economic history highlighted by James McCormack, Fitch’s global head of sovereign ratings, who said that even if austerity is not on the agenda right now, the bill to pay for the pandemic will come due.

Governments around the world have rolled out about $16 trillion worth of fiscal measures to prevent economic collapse during the pandemic, according to the International Monetary Fund, helping to drive the recovery but also leaving war-time era levels of debt.  

On #EconTwitter

The inflation debate is heating up again…
 

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The fourth annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum will convene the world’s most influential leaders in Singapore on Nov. 16-19 to mobilize behind the effort to build a sustainable and inclusive global economy. Learn more here.

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    Economy

    Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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    OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

    Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

    Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

    Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

    Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

    Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

    Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

    According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

    That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

    People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

    That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

    Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

    That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Economy

    Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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    The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

    The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

    CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

    This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

    While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

    Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

    The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

    Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Economy

    Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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    As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

    Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

    A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

    More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

    Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

    “It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

    “It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

    American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

    It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

    “A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

    “It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

    A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

    Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

    “Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

    Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

    With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

    “With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

    “By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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