42 per cent say they’re more hopeful than anxious for economic rebuild, 58 per cent say the opposite
August 19, 2021 – Canada’s post pandemic economic recovery has occupied politicians, policy makers and Canadians alike over the last year and a half. It is now poised to occupy a significant amount of the 44th federal election campaign.
But putting the domestic economy back on track after an unprecedented deliberate slow down elicits different reactions and different preferences from Canadian voters.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute shows the majority (58%) feel more anxious than hopeful (42%) about the country’s near-term economic future.
For those leaning toward hope, the choice is clearly the Liberal Party. Half (53%) among this group say that they will vote for the LPC, compared to just 23 per cent among those more anxious. The first choice for that latter group is the CPC – chosen by 39 per cent. Notably, the NDP is chosen close to equally by both the hopeful (22%) and the anxious (19%).
As the first week of the campaign winds down, vote intent remains consistent – support for all major parties is statistically unchanged over last week – with the incumbent Liberal Party of Canada maintaining a six-point lead over the Conservative Party (36% to 30% respectively). The NDP remains in third place at 20 per cent – well behind the Liberals and the CPC, but well ahead of the Greens. The Bloc Quebecois, polling at six per cent nationally, trails the first place Liberals by 16 points in Quebec (41% to 25% respectively).
More Key Findings:
The top two issues in the 2021 campaign are the same as 2019: climate change and healthcare. COVID-19 rounds out the top three.
The Liberal Party holds a 10-point advantage in Ontario after winning the province by nine points in 2019. NDP support in that province is currently up five points compared to the previous election (22% from 17%).
Albertans are least hopeful about an economic recovery in the coming years. Just 28 per cent feel more hopeful than anxious, while 46 per cent say this in Ontario.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting, and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: Top issues
Concern over climate change intensifies
Part Two: Canada’s near-term economic future generates hope, anxiety
Which party and leader are best to lead the rebuild?
Part Three: Liberals lead by six points in vote intention
Part One: Top issues
Canada and the world have faced a year and a half of economic, social, and health challenges due to COVID-19. But when Canadians go to the polls on Sept. 20 to decide which federal party will lead them out of the pandemic and into a new, uncertain reality, many of their top priorities look staggeringly similar to those they identified in 2019.
As the 2021 campaign kicks off, Canadians say climate change and health care are the top two issues facing the country that they care most about. These two issues were most galvanizing in 2019. The new addition: COVID-19 response, chosen by 11 per cent of Canadians as their top national concern. Despite the pandemic, it is climate change that has intensified in the minds of voters over the last two years:
Asked to expand their list of national priorities, a suite of economic issues is chosen by one-in-four Canadians as top concerns in a second tier, alongside the COVID-19 response:
Concern over climate change intensifies
As COVID-19 concern has diminished compared to the beginning of the year, worry about climate change has risen in its wake. Summer wildfires in parts of the country have only further elevated these levels of concern to their highest mark of the year. Meantime, while the priority for Indigenous issues rose precipitously after the confirmation of unmarked graves at former residential school sites early in summer, levels of concern have declined:
For most voters, climate change is paramount among those who currently say they will support the Liberal Party, NDP or Bloc Quebecois. That said, the federal deficit is now a top issue for both Conservative and BQ supporters as all parties lay out their plans for economic recovery:
*Small sample size, interpret with caution. Note: data for the Green party omitted due to too small of a sample size
Part Two: Canada’s near-term economic future generates hope, anxiety
The coming years will present challenge and opportunity for whichever party forms government. After the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, the mood of the nation, with a fourth wave already surging, is still largely apprehensive. Three-in-five (58%) say they are more anxious than hopeful about what the next couple of years will bring, while two-in-five (42%) are more upbeat:
Notably, Canadians are remarkably consistent across age and gender demographics when considering the hope versus anxiety question. Those over the age of 54 show a slightly more optimistic lean, but all largely voice the same level of anxiety about their country’s economic prospects:
Regionally, Ontario residents lead the nation in hope for the economic recovery, but not significantly. Just under half (46%) in Canada’s most populous province feel this way. Albertans are most anxious, though many would likely be buoyed by a Conservative victory on Sept. 20:
Those who say they will support the incumbent Liberals are noticeably more buoyant about the nation’s economic circumstances. This group is the only one for which hopefulness is the majority view:
*Small sample size, interpret with caution. Note: data for the Green party omitted due to too small of a sample size
Which party and leader are best to lead the rebuild?
If this were a campaign entirely centred on post-pandemic economic growth, Erin O’Toole would be in a relatively advantageous position. Two-in-five (41%) believe he and his party would be best suited to help the economy rebound from its COVID-19-induced malaise, while Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are at 36 per cent.
The Conservatives have been more concrete about their economic plans than the Liberals in the campaign’s early days. O’Toole’s party has promised to recover the one million jobs lost since the beginning of the pandemic within one year. To do so, a Conservative government will pay half of new hires’ salaries for six months after the end of the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy, as well as providing tax credits and loans to small- and medium-sized businesses. So far, the Liberals have said they will continue current COVID-19 business supports until March 2022, while also promising to subsidize wages and rent in the tourism industry.
One-in-five say Jagmeet Singh and the NDP would be best to lead the country’s rebuild over the coming years. Singh has most prominently announced a wealth tax of one per cent on Canadians whose worth exceeds $10 million to help fund the recovery:
The picture is much less favourable for O’Toole in a direct head-to-head with Trudeau on the question of who is best to rebuild the economy. When presented with the two parties most likely to form government, a majority (56%) of Canadians believe Trudeau and the Liberals are the better choice to “build back better” after the pandemic, while 44 per cent say the same of O’Toole and the Conservatives:
NDP supporters hold nearly the same amount of belief in Trudeau’s ability to grow the economy post-COVID as Liberal supporters. Meanwhile, there are hints at inroads to be made in Quebec for the Conservative party, as three-in-five (61%) Bloc supporters would choose O’Toole over Trudeau in a head-to-head on moving the economy forward post-pandemic:
*Small sample size, interpret with caution. Note: data for the Green party omitted due to too small of a sample size
Those who take a hopeful view of the economic recovery are much more likely to say they trust Justin Trudeau to lead through it – though they are a smaller portion of the overall population. Those who take a more anxious view lean toward Erin O’Toole and the Conservative Party:
Part Three: Liberals lead by six points in vote intention
The official launch of the 2021 federal election campaign has yet to cause significant movement in vote intention. The Liberal Party leads by six points, currently garnering 36 per cent of decided and leaning voters. Three-in-ten say they will support the Conservatives on Sept. 20, while one-in-five say they will be voting for the NDP:
Since the beginning of the month, the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals has been at least five points in each wave of polling:
The three major federal parties are in a statistical tie in B.C., while the Conservatives continue to enjoy majority support in Alberta and Saskatchewan and plurality support in Manitoba. The Liberals garner the highest support in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec, as well as in the Atlantic provinces. The NDP’s lowest support is in Quebec, a province that once helped the party reach a historically high seat total in 2011:
While there has been little movement in Ontario for the Conservatives and the Liberals since the 2019 election results, the NDP looks stronger than it did two years ago, currently polling five points higher than its 2019 percentage of popular vote. In Quebec, the Liberals are seven points ahead of where they landed in terms of popular vote in 2019, a gain largely at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois, who are polling seven points lower:
Men aged 18 to 34 are the most divided age-gender group, while women aged 18 to 34 are the only age-gender group that give the NDP a plurality of support. Men over 34 prefer the Conservatives, while women over 34 prefer the Liberals:
Economic outlook appears to play a factor in vote choice. For the hopeful, the choice is clearly the Liberal Party. Half (53%) among this group say that they will vote for the incumbents, compared to just 23 per cent among those more anxious. The anxious are far more likely to prefer the CPC at this point in the campaign, while the NDP is close to equally represented among both groups:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Aug. 14-17, 2021, among a representative randomized sample of 1,614 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For detailed results by economic outlook, click here.
To read the full report including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
OTTAWA – Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says there is a lot of uncertainty around how artificial intelligence could affect the economy moving forward, including the labour market and price growth.
In a speech in Toronto at the Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference, the governor said Friday that the central bank is approaching the issue cautiously to get a better understanding of how AI could affect its job of keeping inflation low and stable.
“Be wary of anyone who claims to know where AI will take us. There is too much uncertainty to be confident,” Macklem said in prepared remarks.
“We don’t know how quickly AI will continue to advance. And we don’t know the timing and extent of its economic and social impacts.”
The governor said AI has the potential of increasing labour productivity, which would raise living standards and grow the economy without boosting inflation.
In the short-term, he said investment in AI is adding to demand and could be inflationary.
However, Macklem also highlighted more pessimistic scenarios, where AI could destroy more jobs than it creates or lead to less competition rather than more.
The governor called on academics and businesses to work together to shed more light on the potential effects of AI on the economy.
“When you enter a dark room, you don’t go charging in. You cautiously feel your way around. And you try to find the light switch. That is what we are doing. What we central bankers need is more light,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.
Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.
Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.
Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.
Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.
Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.
Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).
Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.
June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.
Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”
Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.
July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.
Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
