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Economy

Euro zone economy to gain momentum in 2021 on vaccine hopes: Reuters poll – The Journal Pioneer

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By Richa Rebello and Manjul Paul

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The euro zone economy will contract again this quarter as renewed lockdown measures stifle activity, according to a Reuters poll which showed the bloc’s GDP would then return to pre-crisis levels within two years.

Hopes for a coronavirus vaccine and additional support from the European Central Bank this month meant quarterly growth forecasts for next year were upgraded in the poll conducted from Nov. 26-Dec. 2.

“We now assume vaccines will be rolled out in the euro zone next year and most restrictions on economic activity are lifted during Q2. As a result, GDP increases by around 5% next year, regaining its pre-COVID level in early 2022,” said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics.

“There are still big risks to this forecast. There could yet be a third wave of the virus, vaccine distribution could run into political or logistical problems, and governments could be slower to ease restrictions. On the other hand, the vaccines could be more effective or easier to roll out than anticipated”.

Nearly 80% of respondents, or 36 of 45, who replied to an extra question said the economy would return to pre-crisis levels within two years.

That was a major turnaround in expectations from August when more than 70% of economists said it would take two or more years to reach that level.

The wider poll showed after contracting 2.6% this quarter, the economy would grow 1.1% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with 0.8% in the last poll. It was then predicted to expand 2.0% and 1.8% in Q2 and Q3, better than median predictions of 1.8%, 1.2% in November.

On an annual basis, the economy was expected to shrink 7.4% this year, and grow 5.0% in 2021 largely unchanged from the last poll. For 2022, the growth forecast was upgraded to 3.5% from 3.1%. (Graphic: Reuters Poll: Euro zone economy and ECB monetary policy outlook, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/xlbvgzaxjpq/Reuters%20Poll%20-%20ECB%20and%20EZ%20outlook%20-%20December%202020.PNG)

That pick-up in growth will not filter through to inflation which was expected to remain far below the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2%, averaging 0.3% in 2020. 0.9% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022.

Having remained in negative territory for the fourth straight month in November, inflation is likely to be a point of focus when the ECB’s Governing Council meets next week.

The ECB has launched a strategic review after years of inflation undershooting its target and nearly 80% of respondents to an extra question, or 33 of 43 economists, said the ECB would change its inflation target.

While a smaller section of poll participants commented on what the target would be, most said the ECB would allow more leeway around 2% or adopt an average inflation targeting framework, similar to the Federal Reserve’s recent policy.

“We are probably going to see something which looks a little bit similar to the Fed in the sense that this will be more of a symmetrical target. By changing to a symmetrical target, you build in a little more tolerance for higher inflation in the future,” said Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank.

“This cements the idea rates will stay very low in the coming years… but the past ten years suggest these very relaxed policy settings are not sufficient to really create more growth and inflation. What you really need is a combination of monetary and fiscal policy.”

The ECB was expected to top up its pandemic-related bond purchases by 500 billion euros, at its Dec. 10 meeting, extending the programme by six months until December 2021, a Nov. 18 poll found. It was also predicted to change the terms of its targeted long-term loans to financial institutions.

(Reporting by Richa Rebello and Manjul Paul; Polling by Tushar Goenka and Hari Kishan; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Toby Chopra)

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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