The Bank of Canada has now raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years but many borrowers still haven’t been hit in the pocketbook.
Earlier this week the central bank pushed up its key overnight lending rate to five per cent, marking the 10th increase since March 2022.
For some variable rate mortgage holders with floating payments the pain from the latest hike will be immediately felt and will amount to about $14 more a month for every $100,000 owing on their mortgage.
But for other homeowners, who may have fixed rates or variable mortgages with fixed-payments, the impact is more likely to be felt at renewal.
Approximately half of all mortgages in Canada are set to renew in 2025 or 2026 due in part to the real estate frenzy that transpired over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“For the fixed rate people it’s going to be much less catastrophic. Many of those people will be able to shop for new mortgage and they will qualify because their mortgages are smaller due to the good payments they’ve made and they can manage it (the higher payments),” mortgage broker Ron Butler told CP24.com. this week. “The variable situation is somewhat more concerning because there may be no principal being paid down or it (the balance of the loan) might have even grown (due to fixed payments that don’t even cover interest).”
If you have a mortgage coming up for renewal here is what you need to know about this higher rate environment.
SOME PAYMENTS COULD SKYROCKET
Many variable rate mortgage holders – those at four of the six big banks – have what is known as fixed payments. That has meant that as rates have increased more and more of their money has gone to interest rather than principal, even as their total payment has remained the same. The practice has, in turn, created a situation where some homeowners have amortizations that have risen well beyond the ones they agreed to when they first took out their mortgage and that is likely to be a problem come renewal.
“Because of these rate hikes some homeowners might have an amortization of 60 years and the current lender will likely not allow them to keep that,” RATESDOTCA mortgage expert Victor Tran told CP24.com. “They will need to bring it down to the contractual amortization and if that happens their payments are going to skyrocket. It is going to be a lot higher than what they are currently paying.”
Tran said that he expects lenders to show some flexibility when it comes to homeowners who haven’t been paying off much, if any, principal.
But he said that it is not likely that homeowners will be able to keep extended amortization periods forever, an opinion that Butler also holds.
Butler told CP24.com that banks “will almost always” offer a chance to go back to a 30 year amortization, which is the maximum allowed.
But he said that might not make an enormous amount of difference for a homeowner whose payment is set to double, say from $2,000 to $4,000 a month.
“They (the bank) may look at it closely and find out that yeah, you are right, you’re just hopeless and you can never make the (new) payment. If that is the case they are allowed by the regulator in some cases to go to 35 years or even a 40-year amortization if there is proven financial inability to pay. But again, it doesn’t reduce the payment back to $2,000,” he said.
RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER REGARDLESS OF WHEN YOU RENEW
The Bank of Canada has said that it expects inflation to return to its two per cent target in the middle of 2025. That would allow for interest rate cuts. But few industry insiders expect rates to return to the levels that they were at in 2020 and 2021 anytime soon, if ever.
“We’re never coming back to those days when people were getting rates of 1.59, 1.89, 1.99. It is gone forever,” Butler said. “So whatever rate you get is guaranteed to be higher than what you started with five years before. It will either be a little bit higher, instead of two per cent it will be three-and-a-half per cent, or it will be lot higher, like in the six per cent range. So that is the key thing to understand. It is that everyone is going to have to pay more.”
“Over the past month we’ve seen fixed rates increase by a full percentage point,” Tran added. “That’s huge”
YOU MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO SWITCH LENDERS
Many homebuyers who took out mortgages in 2020 or 2021 did so with historically low interest rates. The stress test meant that those homebuyers still had to qualify at a rate of 5.25 per cent or their contractually agreed upon rate plus two percentage points, whichever was higher. But those seeking to take out a new mortgage today or jump lenders could be stress tested at a rate in excess of eight per cent. That, says Tran, could leave many existing homebuyers with few options other than to renew with their current lender where they will be able to avoid the stress test.
“I’ve had many customers or former clients that are simply not able to take advantage of lower rates with other lenders because they can’t qualify to switch out so they are at the mercy of the current lender,” he told CP24.com. “I think a lot of the lenders know that unfortunately that these customers will have difficulty qualifying elsewhere. But it’s unfortunate because they’re not going to offer these customers the best rate possible. They’re kind of holding them hostage and just giving them a mediocre rate because they know that they have nowhere to go.”
REFINANCING COULD ALSO POSE CHALLENGES
One way that home owners could reduce the payment shock is by extending their amortization. But doing so isn’t necessarily easy, warns Tran. He says that some homebuyers won’t qualify for a new mortgage due to the stress test while others might conclude that the costs of doing so are just too onerous.
“Anytime you make a major change like that you have to go through the whole nine yards again. You have to requalify, you have to go through the stress test again, you have to potentially get an appraisal done at your cost and you have to get a lawyer involved to register a new mortgage title, also at an additional cost,” he told CP24.com.
PATIENCE IS KEY
Butler says that his best advice to homeowners staring down an impending renewal is “not to panic.” He says that in many cases a bank might offer an early renewal with a so-called blended rate but he said taking such an offer is almost always a mistake, when it replaces a lower rate obtained prior to this recent run up in the cost of borrowing.
“Don’t give up 3.19 and take 5.1 as some kind of protection,” he said. “If you have a renewal coming up shop around, don’t blend and only start looking at it 90 days before the date of your renewal because you don’t want to give up that great rate. That just doesn’t make sense.”
Unifor contract: Ford offers up to 25% wage increase
Ford Motor has offered Canadian union Unifor wage increases of up to 25 per cent in its tentative agreement, the union said on Saturday.
The agreement provides a 10 per cent wage increase for the first year followed by increases of two per cent and three per cent through the second and third year and a $10,000 productivity and quality bonus to all employees on the active roll of the company, Unifor said.
The proposals also include an increase in the monthly basic benefit and special allowance in all class codes across defined benefit and hybrid pension plans and investments to help transition from traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production to electric vehicle (EV) assembly facilities.
Unifor, which represents about 5,600 Canadian autoworkers, on Friday said that its Ford leadership group has voted unanimously to support the tentative agreement.
Ford is also in the midst of contract negotiations in the U.S. with a strike by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union at the automaker’s Wayne, Mich., assembly plant.
The UAW began strikes on Friday against 38 parts distribution centres across the United States at GM and Stellantis, extending its unprecedented, simultaneous strikes that began with one assembly plant each of the Detroit Three.
The additional facilities added about 5,600 workers to the 12,700 already on strike.
The UAW said on Friday that Ford had improved its contract offer, including boosting profit sharing and agreeing to let workers strike over plant closures but said the union still has “serious issues” with Ford and its workers would remain on strike at the Wayne assembly plant.
Unlike UAW, Unifor chose one of the Detroit Three as a “target” to negotiate with first — in this case, Ford — in a pattern bargaining tactic used to set the tone for subsequent deals with other companies.
UAW president Shawn Fain said in a Facebook live event that by targeting distribution centres the strike becomes a nationwide event. He said he expected talks to continue through the weekend.
The standoff is fuelling worries about prolonged industrial action that could disrupt production and dent U.S. economic growth. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday showed significant support by Americans for the striking autoworkers.
U.S. President Joe Biden said in a social media post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he would come to Michigan on Tuesday “to join the picket line and stand in solidarity with the men and women of UAW,” while former president Donald Trump, who is seeking a new term, will be in Michigan on Wednesday to address autoworkers, his campaign said.
(Reporting by Gokul Pisharody in Bengaluru; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Alistair Bell)
Vote “No” to Unifor’s sellout Ford Canada contract! Build rank-and-File committees to fight for a North America-wide strike against the Detroit Three!
The World Socialist Web Site Autoworker Newsletter urges all 5,680 workers at Ford’s Canadian operations to decisively repudiate Unifor’s sellout contract by voting “No” in the ratification vote scheduled for this weekend. A decisive “No” vote must be made the starting point for workers on the shop floor seizing control of the contract battle through the construction of rank-and-file committees in every plant and the preparation of an industry-wide strike across North America to win workers’ just demands.
The nationalist, pro-corporate Unifor bureaucracy has demonstrated by its actions this week that its principal concerns are to block a strike and force through the company’s dictates. In close coordination with its allies in the Trudeau Liberal government and UAW bureaucracy south of the border, Unifor connived to prevent a walkout by Ford workers that would have resulted in the first joint strike by Canadian and American autoworkers in decades. They intend thereby to stop the emergence of a movement that could trigger a broader mobilization of workers against the ruling elite’s policies of austerity and war, and impose the auto bosses’ demand for a transition to electric vehicle production carried out at autoworkers’ expense.
Autoworkers have already begun organizing against the combined betrayals of their struggle by Unifor and the UAW. In the United States, a statement signed by rank-and-file committees at three plants, GM Flint, Warren Truck, and a Dana facility in Toledo, was issued this week calling for an all-out strike. In Canada, social media has been full of workers denouncing Unifor’s treachery. The urgent task is to transform this legitimate anger into a conscious strategy for victory by building independent committees to link up the contract fight in Canada with the strike by autoworkers in the US.
The Unifor bureaucracy’s treachery
The Unifor leadership waited until almost two hours after the contract expiration deadline of 11:59 p.m. Monday to announce an arbitrary extension of the contract by 24 hours. The following evening, with the clock ticking down, the bureaucracy announced it had reached a tentative agreement with “historic” and “transformative gains.” Reports later revealed that the chairman of Unifor’s Ford Master Bargaining Committee, Local 200 President John D’Agnolo, had not even read the agreement in full before leading the committee in “unanimously” endorsing it.
As if this treachery wasn’t bad enough, Unifor is now ordering workers to review and vote on the tentative agreement while they are effectively gagged and blindfolded. No physical ratification meetings are being organized, because the union apparatus fears that they would give workers the opportunity to talk to each other about the agreement, speak up against the bureaucracy’s treachery, and organize a “no” vote campaign. Instead, there will be one Zoom event Saturday afternoon, allowing bureaucrats who want the contract to pass to control who speaks and block any effort by dissenters to intervene. Workers will have little more than 24 hours to review a “comprehensive summary” of the contract online—that is a self-serving “highlights” package put together by the union bureaucrats so eager to prevent a strike—and just 18.5 hours to cast their vote using an online voting system that will cut out many workers.
The nationalist and pro-corporate roots of the bureaucracy
The Unifor bureaucracy’s conduct is not a matter of mistakes or incompetent leadership. It flows from its nationalist and pro-corporate strategy, which has produced one defeat after another for the past four decades.
Unifor President Lana Payne has repeatedly championed the foul Canadian nationalism that motivated the Canadian Auto Workers’ reactionary split from the UAW in 1985. She chose “charting our own course” as the union’s slogan for the current negotiations, and took every opportunity to insist that Canadian workers have different interests from their American class brothers and sisters.
These lies have been brought forward to sabotage a cross-border struggle by close to 170,000 autoworkers whose contracts with the Detroit Three expired simultaneously for the first time in 24 years. They stand in stark contrast to the sentiments of rank-and-file autoworkers, who whether they work in Oakville, Windsor, Michigan or Ohio have advanced demands for wages that keep pace with inflation, an end to multi-tier wage systems, and job protections during the EV transition as their key demands against the globally mobile auto giants.
Payne’s poisonous nationalism has been invoked by both the Unifor and UAW factions of the bureaucracy since the 1980s to pit Canadian, American, and Mexican autoworkers against each other in a race to the bottom on wages, conditions and jobs. While the original CAW leadership around Bob White claimed to be building a “left” alternative to the “American” UAW, they in fact used the cheaper Canadian dollar and state-funded health care system to offer Ford, GM, and Chrysler (now Stellantis) cheaper labour costs than they could obtain in the US. The UAW bureaucracy was no less relentless in its promotion of American nationalism, with the result that every bargaining round saw the whip-sawing of wages and benefits back and forth across the border as the bureaucracies in Canada and the US sought to grant the automakers the biggest profits.
A similar process is playing out this time. Unifor’s conclusion of a tentative agreement with Ford undercut the struggle being waged by US autoworkers and forced Canadian workers to effectively scab on the ongoing strike at three Ford, GM and Stellantis plants in the US. The vague demands raised publicly by Unifor for bargaining were even more limited than the modest proposals put forward by the UAW leadership around President Shawn Fain, who tried to placate militancy among the rank-and-file by adopting a more radical pose than the Unifor top brass.
The fraud of this pose is underscored by the so-called “stand-up strike” Fain is currently leading or rather misleading. Well over a week after the “strike deadline,” the UAW has sanctioned job action by just 12 percent of the workforce, while ordering the vast majority of autoworkers to continue pumping out profits for the Big Three. The UAW, no less than Unifor, wanted to prevent a situation in which a strike spread across the Canada-US border, since it would strike a blow against the nationalist divisions they have carefully cultivated over the past 40 years.
The ruling class wants autoworkers to pay for the war and EV transition
The nationalism promoted by Unifor and the UAW over the past four decades has gone hand-in-hand with the bureaucracies’ emergence as appendages of the corporations and state. Unifor is a key source of support for Canada’s pro-war, pro-austerity Liberal government as it intensifies the imperialist war on Russia and imposes massive real wage cuts on workers through interest rate hikes, wage “restraint” and “post-pandemic” austerity.
Both the Unifor and UAW bureaucracies have worked out in close consultation with their respective governments the terms for a transition to electric vehicle production that will be carried out at the expense of autoworkers—through massive job cuts and plant closures which will be used to blackmail workers into accepting further wage cuts and other concessions. It includes the promotion of “North America First” economic protectionism to secure the lion’s share of the rapidly growing global EV market for Canadian and US corporations, and the “on-shoring” of supply chains for critical raw materials.
These reactionary pro-imperialist policies are inseparable from the ruling elite’s intensification of the war on Russia and preparations for further great power conflicts. While the highly profitable automakers are receiving tens of billions of dollars in government subsidies to fund the transition, autoworkers will face precarious employment and the prospect of surviving on inadequate unemployment benefits during lengthy shutdowns. The miserable conditions this will produce have been revealed at GM’s CAMI plant in Ingersoll, where workers had to establish a food bank during the plant shutdown to help their colleagues make ends meet.
For a rank-and-file rebellion to organize a North America-wide autoworkers’ strike!
Extremely favourable conditions exist for rank-and-file workers at Ford and across the Detroit Three’s North American operations to put a stop to the bureaucracy’s decades-long treachery. A “No” vote by Ford Canada workers this weekend would be welcomed by autoworkers across Canada and the US as a sign that resistance is developing to the Unifor bureaucracy’s sellout strategy. Support for a unified struggle of all autoworkers is growing, as shown by the emergence of the Autoworkers Rank-and-File Committee Network in the US, which unites rank-and-file committees from several Detroit Three plants.
Over recent months, the largest strike wave in North America in decades has developed, including major strikes by Canadian government workers, West Coast dockers, and US screenwriters and actors. Internationally, mass protests against government austerity to pay for the war and enrichment of the super-rich have emerged in France, while strikes by transportation, public sector, and industrial workers have swept across Europe.
The activation of the vast social power of the working class in support of the autoworkers’ struggle depends above all on the initiative of the rank and file. At Ford, a “No” vote Saturday must be combined with the calling of emergency in-person meetings of Local 707 and Local 200 to break through the bureaucratic efforts of the Unifor apparatus to muzzle workers. Resolutions should be passed demanding an all-out strike, including workers at GM and Stellantis, to develop a joint struggle with striking US workers. Independent committees led by trusted rank-and-file workers should be established at every Ford Canada facility. To coordinate a North America-wide struggle, they should affiliate with the International Workers Alliance of Rank-and-File Committees. The IWA-RFC provides the organizational framework and political leadership needed to mobilize autoworkers as part of an independent political movement of the working class against the the auto giants’ relentless drive for corporate profits and to win decent-paying, secure jobs for all.
We encourage all autoworkers who wish to take up this fight to contact us by filling out the form below or by emailing: firstname.lastname@example.org
US auto workers expand strike as Biden prepares to join picket line
The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has expanded its strike against three of the major carmakers in the United States, with employees from 38 parts distribution centres joining in the protest.
Friday’s expansion affects plants owned by the companies General Motors (GM) and Stellantis across 20 states.
But the one company not affected is Ford, the third target of the strike. In a video conference on Friday, UAW President Shawn Fain indicated “real progress” had been made with the automaker.
“We still have serious issues to work through, but we do want to recognise that Ford is showing that they are serious about reaching a deal,” Fain said. “At GM and Stellantis, it’s a different story.”
The strike’s expansion could have serious consequences for US consumers, who may face shortages of car parts and higher vehicle prices if the walk-out continues over the long term.
With Friday’s additions, the strike now encompasses nearly 10 percent of UAW’s members or approximately 18,600 workers, up from around 13,000. The walk-out began last week with three assembly plants in Michigan, Missouri and Ohio, as workers pushed for a 36-percent pay increase over four years.
The UAW has also called for wider access to pensions, shorter hours and the elimination of a tiered salary scale that disadvantages newer employees.
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