Two-in-five (41%) say Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply agreement working, 45% disagree
June 19, 2023 – The Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply agreement has been successful in keeping the Liberal minority government in power – and Canadians away from ballot boxes for now – but the reviews are mixed if it is helping the government get things done.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians lean slightly towards believing the government is operating poorly (46%) under the agreement than well (41%).
Discontent with what the government is getting accomplished under the NDP-Liberal agreement is higher among past Conservative voters (85%), but past Liberal (73%) and NDP supporters (59%) are both satisfied at majority levels.
Meantime, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sees his approval dip to a low since the 2021 election – 36 per cent. Sliding approval from past Liberal (74%) and NDP voters (46%) is pulling down appraisal of the prime minister after an end-of-2022 bump that pushed the Liberal leader to 43 per cent.
Trudeau’s rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, is in no better shape when it comes to evaluation by Canadians. Half (50%) view Poilievre unfavourably, while his favourability matches Trudeau’s approval at 36 per cent. However, there are more Canadians – 59 per cent – who say they have a negative view of the prime minister than Poilievre.
Perhaps no measure better shows the current division between the two leading parties than the fact that, overall, just three per cent of Canadians hold a positive view of the parties’ two leaders. More – one-in-five (19%) – view both men in a negative light.
More Key Findings:
Comparing these Trudeau-Poilievre views further, one-in-three (33%) Canadians view Trudeau negatively and Poilievre positively, while close to the same number view Trudeau positively and Poilievre negatively (29%).
Men are more likely to view Poilievre positively (47%) than Trudeau (29%) or Singh (38%). Women have higher appraisal of Singh (53%) and Trudeau (43%) than Poilievre (26%).
Canadians aged 18- to 34-years-old are three times as likely (6%) as other age groups to view both Poilievre and Trudeau favourably.
There is a large sentiment that the government isn’t getting done what it needs to under the NDP-Liberal agreement from those under economic duress. Half (47%) of the “Struggling” according to the Angus Reid Institute’s Economic Stress Index believe the government is operating “terribly” since the NDP and Liberals signed the confidence-and-supply agreement.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: Assessing the leaders
Trudeau approval
Poilievre and Singh favourability
Perceptions across party lines
Men and women offer differing views
The economically stressed prefer Poilievre
Part Two: Does anyone have a positive view of both Poilievre and Trudeau?
Part Three: Views of confidence-and-supply agreement
Liberals, New Democrats largely satisfied
Part One: Assessing the leaders
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal minority government have had a rocky first half of 2023. They’ve been dogged by a scandal involving potential Chinese government interference in Canadian elections, with much dissatisfaction with how they have responded. The latest twist in the saga saw the Trudeau-appointed special rapporteur on foreign interference, former governor general David Johnston, step down after the House of Commons passed a motion asking for him to resign.
Though Canada has stepped up to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, its commitment to defence spending has come under scrutiny after leaks revealed Trudeau privately told North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials that Canada would never reach the NATO goal of spending two per cent of its GDP on nation defence.
Canadians, already offering mixed reviews of federal government services, had to endure longer waits for passports and potential delays during tax season as a public sector strike swept the nation for 12 days. The resulting agreement, though not as much as the union had demanded, boosted wages for public sector employees, as half of Canadian workers themselves had not seen a raise in the past 12 months.
In the face of a half-year of challenges, approaching three-in-five (59%) of Canadians disapprove of the work of Trudeau, including more than two-in-five (42%) who strongly do so. One-third (36%) are more positive in their appraisal:
The confidence-and-supply agreement between the NDP and the Liberals has offered Trudeau’s minority government some measure of stability. Those who voted NDP in 2021 are split on their assessment of Trudeau – 46 per cent approve while half (49%) disapprove.
Past Liberal voters offer the most positive assessments (74% approve) while past CPC voters are overwhelmingly negative (93% disapprove):
Across each group of political party supporters, Trudeau’s approval has taken a considerable hit in 2023. Comparing these data with his two-year high mark at the end of last year, he is down nine points among past NDP voters and 13 points among past BQ supporters. This, while also enduring a drop in approval among his own supporters from 83 to 74 per cent:
Poilievre and Singh favourability
Trudeau and the Liberals are currently facing a vote intention deficit to the Conservatives and leader Pierre Poilievre. While eight points may separate the two men’s parties, there is no separation between the two when it comes to praise from Canadians. One-third (36%) say they have a favourable view of Poilievre, while half (50%) do not.
The leader of the New Democratic Party, Trudeau’s partner in the confidence-and-supply agreement, is the most favourably viewed of the leaders of the three largest national parties. As many have positive views of Jagmeet Singh (45%) as do negative ones (45%).
Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet – evaluated by Quebecers only – is viewed more positively than Poilievre, Trudeau or Singh, with half (49%) saying they have a positive impression:
Perceptions across party lines
Comparatively, Poilievre is viewed more favourably by his own party (39% very favourable, 40% favourable) than Trudeau is by his (17% strongly approve, 57% moderately approve).
But Poilievre does not find much favour elsewhere on the political spectrum. Past Liberal and NDP voters’ assessments are overwhelmingly negative. At most, 15 per cent of past Bloc voters say they have a positive impression of Poilievre:
Men and women offer differing views
There are clear differences between men and women in assessments of the three major party leaders. Half of men (47%) say they view Poilievre favourably but are less positive towards Singh (38%) and Trudeau (29%). Women are negative in their assessment of Poilievre (26%), but more generous when it comes to Trudeau (43%) and Singh (53%):
The economically stressed prefer Poilievre
The Angus Reid Institute’s Economic Stress Index assesses factors such as household costs, debt and self-financial appraisals to provide a measure of the financial pressure facing Canadians (read more about the index here).
Those found to be “Struggling” financially by the index offer a more positive assessment of Poilievre than those under less economic stress. Poilievre has been hammering the Trudeau and the Liberals on the issue of inflation, blaming government spending and pointing his finger at the carbon tax as another measure putting undue pressure on Canadian households. Poilievre’s favourability gap over Singh and Trudeau among those in dire financial straits suggest that perhaps his message is resonating.
At the other end of the index, Trudeau and Singh find more positive appraisal:
Part Two: Does anyone have a positive view of both Poilievre and Trudeau?
There is a lot of negativity in the current political environment in Canada. The leaders of the two largest political parties in the country – and the two men most likely to contest for the job of prime minister whenever the next election occurs – each currently face an electorate where at least half say they view them unfavourably.
While the assessments of both leaders are highly polarized, with political affiliation significantly affecting evaluations of the leaders as noted above, there is some overlap on both positive and negative sides of the spectrum. However, only a handful – three per cent – of Canadians offer a positive assessment of both leaders. Negative impressions of both are much more common at one-in-five (19%).
The proportion holding twin negative views of Poilievre and Trudeau is similar across demographics. Meanwhile, 18- to 34-year-old Canadians are the most likely to say they have positive impressions of both leaders:
Past CPC voters (78%) are more likely to offer high assessment of their own leader and low assessment of their rival than past Liberal voters (64%). This, as the CPC outpace the Liberal party in vote retention from the 2021 federal election. Notably, 10 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2021 and one-in-seven (14%) of those who voted Liberal say they view both Trudeau and Poilievre negatively.
Though a plurality of NDP voters (41%) offer a positive view of Trudeau and a negative one of Poilievre, one-third view both unfavourably. They are joined by half (50%) of those who voted Bloc Québécois in 2021:
Part Three: Views of confidence-and-supply agreement
It has been 15 months of Liberal minority governance under a confidence-and-supply agreement. The arrangement, which sees the NDP support the Liberals on the budget and confidence votes, has provided stability for a minority government which otherwise could have potentially fell at any point due to a failed vote of confidence. Though there have been some disagreements between the NDP and the Liberals – most recently on the government’s handling of the investigation into foreign interference in Canadian elections – it has not been enough to dissolve the deal.
Canadians are split as to how they feel the agreement is working. Two-in-five (41%) believe it is going “well” or “great”, while slightly more (46%) instead believe it is going “poorly” or “terribly”:
Liberals, New Democrats largely satisfied
Supporters of the official opposition Conservative party, sitting on the outside of the agreement, are the most likely to believe things are going terribly – two-thirds (64%) say this. Among supporters of parties inside the agreement, past Liberal voters are more likely to believe the agreement is going well or great (73%) than past NDP voters (59%). Past Bloc voters are split (great or well 36%, poorly or terribly 41%):
Those who are struggling financially are less likely to believe the confidence-and-supply agreement is working “well” or “great”. Instead, approaching half (47%) believe it is working “terribly”. Half (50%) of the Comfortable and a majority (56%) of the Thriving say the government is operating at least well under the arrangement:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from May 30 – June 3, 2023, among a representative randomized sample of 3,885 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
